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World Economy Review - October 2017

Dow Jones Index

Dow Jones Index

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released the 2017 version of its World Oil Outlook. Perhaps the most interesting projection in the new Outlook calls for an increase in demand for oil of 15.8 million barrels a day between 2016 and 2040.

World demand in 2016 totaled 95.4 million barrels a day and the latest OPEC forecast pushes that to 111.1 barrels a day in 2040. That total comprises a decline of 8.9 million barrels a day in demand from developed (OECD) countries and an increase of 24 million barrels a day in developing countries` demand. China alone will add 6.0 million barrels a day to its demand over the forecast period and India will add 5.9 million barrels a day.

The Outlook also foresees a decline in demand growth: Long term global oil demand growth is forecast to decelerate steadily, falling from an annual average of around 1.3 mb/d during the period 2016–2020 to only 0.3 mb/d every year between 2035 and 2040. This deceleration is a result of slowing GDP growth, assumed oil price increases, a structural shift of economies towards a more service-oriented structure, efficiency improvements as a result of tightening energy efficiency policies and/or technological improvements, and oil facing strong competition from other energy sources.

Among those other energy sources is electricity as fuel for electric cars. Last summer, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forecast that electric vehicles will account for 54% of global car sales by 2040. BNEF further expects just over a third of all cars on the road in 2040 to be elec...

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The World Economy

World GDP Growth, %

World GDP Growth

The world economy can be evaluated in various ways, depending on the model used, and this valuation can then be represented in various ways (for example, in 2006 US dollars). It is inseparable from the geography and ecology of Earth, and is therefore somewhat of a misnomer, since, while definitions and representations of the "world economy" vary widely, they must at a minimum exclude any consideration of resources or value based outside of the Earth.
For example, while attempts could be made to calculate the value of currently unexploited mining opportunities in unclaimed territory in Antarctica, the same opportunities on Mars would not be considered a part of the world economy - even if currently exploited in some way - and could be considered of latent value only in the same way as uncreated intellectual property, such as a previously unconceived invention. Beyond the minimum standard of concerning value in production, use, and exchange on the planet Earth, definitions, representations, models, and valuations of the world economy vary widely.

It is common to limit questions of the world economy exclusively to Human economic activity, and the world economy is typically judged in monetary terms, even in cases in which there is no efficient market to help valuate certain goods or services, or in cases in which a lack of independent research or government cooperation makes establishing figures difficult. Typical examples are illegal drugs and prostitution, which by any standard are a part of the world economy, but for which there is by definition no legal market of any kind.

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Monthly Average
for October 2017

indicatorvaluechange, %
Dow Jones23036.243.93%
RTS Index1134.471.44%
RUR/USD rate57.720.09%
RUR/EUR rate67.86-1.25%
OIl (Brent), $/bl57.683.97%
Oil (WTI), $/bl51.613.72%
Gold, $/oz1279.51-2.70%

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