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World Economy Review - December 2016

RTS Index

RTS Index

Economists at HSBC raised their forecast for global growth and inflation over the next two years based on robust manufacturing activity, a resilient China and above all the fiscal boost expected to come in the United States.

It was the first time in nearly five years they have upped their growth and inflation outlooks over a two-year horizon as 2017 gets underway and as investors prepare for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump entering the White House.

The British economy appears to be in ruder health than had been anticipated expected following the country`s decision in June to leave the European Union, while Japan, Germany and Spain are also looking brighter, HSBC said.

The bank now sees the global economy expanding at a 2.5 percent pace this year compared its with 2.3 percent forecast in September, and 2.6 percent next year, up from September`s 2.5 percent.

Global inflation looks set to be 3.0 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year, compared with their previous forecasts of 2.7 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, the bank said.

"All of the above help explain why we can offer a rare treat: for the first time since early 2012, we are increasing our forecasts for both global growth and inflation for the next two years," the bank`s team of economists led by Janet Henry, chief global economist, said in a note.

"Unfortunately, it is still a world where global growth is likely to hover around the mediocre growth rates of the past few years."

HSBC`s projection for US GDP growth in 2018 saw the sharpest upwards revisio...

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The World Economy

World GDP Growth, %

World GDP Growth

The world economy can be evaluated in various ways, depending on the model used, and this valuation can then be represented in various ways (for example, in 2006 US dollars). It is inseparable from the geography and ecology of Earth, and is therefore somewhat of a misnomer, since, while definitions and representations of the "world economy" vary widely, they must at a minimum exclude any consideration of resources or value based outside of the Earth.
For example, while attempts could be made to calculate the value of currently unexploited mining opportunities in unclaimed territory in Antarctica, the same opportunities on Mars would not be considered a part of the world economy - even if currently exploited in some way - and could be considered of latent value only in the same way as uncreated intellectual property, such as a previously unconceived invention. Beyond the minimum standard of concerning value in production, use, and exchange on the planet Earth, definitions, representations, models, and valuations of the world economy vary widely.

It is common to limit questions of the world economy exclusively to Human economic activity, and the world economy is typically judged in monetary terms, even in cases in which there is no efficient market to help valuate certain goods or services, or in cases in which a lack of independent research or government cooperation makes establishing figures difficult. Typical examples are illegal drugs and prostitution, which by any standard are a part of the world economy, but for which there is by definition no legal market of any kind.

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Monthly Average
for December 2016

indicatorvaluechange, %
Dow Jones19720.965.38%
RTS Index1117.4112.38%
RUR/USD rate61.99-4.04%
RUR/EUR rate65.32-6.20%
OIl (Brent), $/bl54.9616.74%
Oil (WTI), $/bl52.2513.83%
Gold, $/oz1151.40-6.84%

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