World Economy Review - April 2019
RTS Index
Yes, yes, we normally think of a recession as being negative growth. More formally, two quarters or more of negative economic growth. The pile of everything being produced by everyone goes down.
However, while this is true it`s not entirely useful when we consider the global economy. There a reasonable rule of thumb is that less than 3% growth is that recession:
It sounds a bit odd to be describing near 3% global GDP growth as being recession levels – most rich countries would kill for that sort of growth rate maintained over the years. Do note that we`re talking of real growth here, this is after inflation is deducted. Still, a useful rule of thumb is that for global growth something less than 3% is what we should be describing as a recession.
This isn`t an official declaration, rather a general rule of thumb used by the World Bank, OECD and IMF. Global growth of less than 3% is recessionary. The reason being that growth in poor countries should be – note should – a lot easier than that in rich. Rich places are already at the technological frontier. To get more growth people have to go work out how to do it.
Poor countries by contrast aren`t, by definition, at that technological frontier. They`re not doing everything in the modern and efficient manner – that`s why they`re poor. So, their growth is a lot easier. Go copy – quite literally – what the rich countries are doing and there you have it, growth. Poor countries should be growing faster than rich and that`s what means that global growth should be up above 3% whatever else is happening. ...
The World Economy
World GDP Growth, %
The world economy can be evaluated in various ways, depending on the model used, and this valuation can then be represented in various ways (for example, in 2006 US dollars). It is inseparable from the geography and ecology of Earth, and is therefore somewhat of a misnomer, since, while definitions and representations of the "world economy" vary widely, they must at a minimum exclude any consideration of resources or value based outside of the Earth.
For example, while attempts could be made to calculate the value of currently unexploited mining opportunities in unclaimed territory in Antarctica, the same opportunities on Mars would not be considered a part of the world economy - even if currently exploited in some way - and could be considered of latent value only in the same way as uncreated intellectual property, such as a previously unconceived invention. Beyond the minimum standard of concerning value in production, use, and exchange on the planet Earth, definitions, representations, models, and valuations of the world economy vary widely.
It is common to limit questions of the world economy exclusively to Human economic activity, and the world economy is typically judged in monetary terms, even in cases in which there is no efficient market to help valuate certain goods or services, or in cases in which a lack of independent research or government cooperation makes establishing figures difficult. Typical examples are illegal drugs and prostitution, which by any standard are a part of the world economy, but for which there is by definition no legal market of any kind.