The Lastest Macroeconomic News
11.08.2009 22:20 China has reported GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 7.9%, relative to 6.1% in Q1
Surpassing even recent upgraded forecasts, China has reported GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 7.9%, relative to 6.1% in Q1. Forecasts for the full year include the International Monetary Fund at 7.5%, Goldman`s at 8.3% and the Chinese government`s own estimate of 8.0%. Responding to the news, other economists scrambled to improve their targets for this year and 2010. Also announced were strong increases in industrial output 10.7% better in June, year-on-year whilst fixed asset investment jumped more than 30% in H1 2009 relative to the same period a year earlier. The Chinese economy has enjoyed substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2009 which has attracted significant investment, partly due to the paucity of attractive big-ticket opportunities elsewhere globally. The stimulus has effectively off-set the loss of export generated revenue due to reduced demand from key trading partners. The news follows the confirmation of China, for the first time, reaching $2 trillion in reserves. UBS economist Wang Tao too raised GDP projections for 2009 (from 7.5% to 8.2%), but pointed out that inflation expectation had risen and increasing concerns about asset market bubble and future non-performing loans had already led to the central bank stepping up its sterilisation operations and stricter enforcement of existing regulations on bank lending. "In the coming months, we expect these types of targeted adjustment in policies to continue as the government tries to avoid large volatilities in the economy."
27.07.2009 22:16 GDP of Russia fell 10.1 percent from January to June this year
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Russia fell 10.1 percent from January to June this year, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said. "We can talk about some moderation of the pace of the contraction," Nabiullina said. She added that the industrial output index, calculated on seasonally adjusted basis, was up 0.8 percent month-on-month in June. She estimated that Russia`s economy may shrink 8 percent to 8.5 percent in 2009, news agencies reported. Nabiullina said there have been positive signs for the economy as industrial output increased 0.8 percent in the first half of this year. The minister believed the Russian economy can overcome the negative effects of the current financial and economic crisis as it will gradually ease with government`s anti-crisis measures taking effect. The ministry previously expected Russia`s economy to fall 6 percent to 8 percent this year, while a World Bank report put the figure at 7.5 percent.
19.07.2009 18:26 Russia`s GDP should grow by around 1.0% in 2010, 2.6% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012
Russia`s ministry for economic development has changed its forecast for the country`s 2009 gross domestic product decline to 8.5%, from an earlier forecast of a 6% contraction. GDP should grow minimally next year, by around 1.0%, and then grow by 2.6% in 2011 and by 3.8% in 2012, the agency cited the official as saying. The ministry also revised down its forecast for the country`s industrial output for 2009 to a decline of 12.5% from an earlier forecast of a 9.3% fall, the agency reported. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects Russia`s gross domestic product to fall 6.8% this year, a sharper contraction than forecast in March, citing further erosion of domestic demand, falling investment and declining output. However, it expects stronger GDP growth in 2010 than previously forecast. In March, the OECD forecast a 5.6% fall in GDP from a previous estimate of 2.3% GDP growth. The new forecast falls into the range of the latest official estimate given by the Russian government, which expects GDP contraction of between 6% and 8% this year. Between January and May, the country`s economy contracted 10.2%, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. "Reflecting extreme weakness in early 2009, growth for the year as a whole will be sharply negative," the OECD said in its report. "Output declines may end as early as the second quarter, however, and positive growth is expected to continue through 2010." This recovery, the OECD concluded, should allow Russia to record GDP growth next year of 3.7%. This is higher than the organization`s previous estimate of 0.7% growth. In an overall positive report, which forecasts the economy lifting itself out of the crisis faster than many local and international observers expect, the OECD kept its inflation forecast unchanged, saying it may fall back into single digits this year, to 8%, while the government`s official inflation target is around 13%.
15.07.2009 20:51 US industrial output down 0.4 percent in June 2009
After having fallen 1.2% in May, industrial production decreased 0.4% in June, the Federal Reserved reported on July 15. For the second quarter as a whole, output fell at an annual rate of 11.6%, a more moderate contraction than in the first quarter, when output fell 19.1%. Manufacturing output moved down 0.6% in June, compared with a 1.2% drop in May. Production of durable goods fell 0.7%. The indexes for machinery; computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and motor vehicles and parts all posted decreases of more than 1%. Output increased for several industries, most notably for wood products, primary metals, and miscellaneous manufacturing. The gain of 1.7% for primary metals follows 10 consecutive monthly decreases for the industry. The output of nondurable goods fell 0.4%. Declines in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products; apparel and leather; paper; and chemicals were only partly offset by increases in the indexes for printing and support, petroleum and coal products, and plastics and rubber products. The output of business equipment fell 0.8% in June. The production of industrial and other equipment and of information processing equipment declined, while the output of transit equipment was unchanged. Transit equipment fell in the second quarter after having increased substantially in the first quarter, when the output of aircraft rebounded from a strike. The output of defense and space equipment increased 0.8% in June.
06.07.2009 22:45 Unemployment in the 16 countries that use the euro spiked to a 10-year high in May
Unemployment in the 16 countries that use the euro spiked to a 10-year high in May, reinforcing concerns any recovery will take time with so many people out of work. Eurostat, the statistics office of the EU, said Thursday the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the euro zone in May stood at 9.5 percent, up from April`s 9.3 percent. The increase was expected in the markets in light of the ongoing fall in output across Europe — in the first quarter of 2009, the euro zone economy saw output plunge by 2.5 percent as the global recession hit the industrial sector in particular. The unemployment rate was at its highest level since May 1999. Spain is the euro zone`s biggest casualty. Its jobless rate rose to 18.7 percent in May from 18 percent in April. The lowest unemployment rate in the euro zone was in the Netherlands where only 3.2 percent of the working population were without a job in May, and Austria, where only 4.3 percent were jobless. The unemployment rate in Germany, Europe`s biggest economy, was unchanged at 7.7 percent in May. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, so the number of jobless will likely continue to rise for a while even when the recession officially ends. Recent economic releases have stoked hopes that the euro zone may start to see some sort of recovery towards the end of the year but that high unemployment levels will continue to weigh on consumption and sentiment. The unemployment news comes just hours ahead of the European Central Bank`s latest interest rate decision. Though the rate-setting governing council is set to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the record low of 1 percent, its president Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to note the recent improving economic signals though maintaining his view that recovery will take time. Including the eleven countries that don`t use the euro but are in the EU, such as Britain and Sweden, the unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent in May from 8.7 percent in the previous month. May`s rate was the highest since June 2005. The EU-wide rate has been swelled by the Baltic countries, which are in a deep recession following the collapse of debt-fueled economic boom. Latvia, whose economy slumped by a staggering 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, saw its unemployment rate, climb to 16.3 percent in May from 15.3 percent in April. Analysts expect June`s U.S. unemployment rate to rise around 0.3 of a percentage point to 9.7 percent and that another 400,000 jobs were lost during the month. Though still high, the job losses are way down on the numbers recorded earlier in the year. That improving trend was evident in a survey Wednesday from the ADP private payrolls firm, which showed that private sector employment fell by 473,000 in June, down on the 532,000 jobs shed in May.
25.06.2009 22:44 Russia`s GDP plunged 11 percent in May compared to the same period last year
Russia`s gross domestic product (GDP) plunged 11 percent in May compared to the same period last year, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said. The economy contracted 10.2 percent from January to May this year, compared to the same period of 2008, the Interfax news agency quoted Klepach as saying. "The economy is close to the lowest point of its contraction. In several sectors close to the global situation, a revival has been seen and exports can be expected to grow, but the sectors tied to investment demand are showing a major decline," Klepach said. Given the 10 percent decline over the first five months, Klepach said, lowering the economic slump to 6.8 percent for this year would be "a heroic act for our economy." Russia`s economy, heavily dependent on exports of energy and raw materials, was hit hard by the global financial crisis. Russian GDP contracted by 9.8 percent year-on-year in the first four months of this year. The Russian economy will shrink by 7.9 percent in 2009 despite a recent rise in commodity prices, the World Bank said on Wednesday, a much sharper contraction than the 4.5 percent it forecast earlier. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects Russia`s gross domestic product to fall 6.8% this year, a sharper contraction than forecast in March, citing further erosion of domestic demand, falling investment and declining output. However, it expects stronger GDP growth in 2010 than previously forecast. In March, the OECD forecast a 5.6% fall in GDP from a previous estimate of 2.3% GDP growth.
18.06.2009 20:50 U.S. industrial output tumbles 1.1 percent in May 2009
U.S. industrial production slid a steeper-than-expected 1.1 percent in May from the prior month with output off sharply at factories, utilities and mines, a Federal Reserve report showed. Economists polled by Reuters were expecting a 0.9 percent decline after a revised 0.7 percent drop in April, initially reported as a 0.5 percent decrease. The data suggest that any slowdown in the pace of the recession that many economists have pointed to in recent weeks may be uneven. The capacity utilization rate for total industry, a measure of slack in the economy, fell to 68.3 percent, the lowest level on records dating back to 1967.
15.06.2009 21:51 Russian GDP Shrank 9.8% in First Quarter of 2009 on Industrial Output
Russia’s economy contracted the most in 15 years in the first quarter after industrial production plunged and the government’s 3 trillion rubles ($97 billion) in stimulus spending failed to boost companies and banks. Gross domestic product tumbled an annual 9.8 percent, compared with growth of 1.2 percent in the previous quarter, the Moscow-based Federal Statistics Service said in a statement on its Web site today. The preliminary estimate on May 15 was a 9.5 percent contraction. The world’s biggest energy supplier is falling into its first recession in a decade after the global slowdown sapped demand for its commodities and companies struggled to find funds. The government’s stimulus package has failed to spur bank lending, even as the central bank cut its main interest rates three times since April. Manufacturing fell 23.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with a revised 6.6 percent expansion in the same period last year. GDP may slump as much as 8 percent in 2009, Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina said last month, after growth of 5.6 percent in 2008 and 8.1 percent the year before. President Dmitry Medvedev said on June 6 that the Russian economy will rebound “more quickly than had perhaps been expected.” The economy contracted in May at the slowest pace since October, shrinking 6.8 percent from a year earlier, as slumps in manufacturing and service industries eased after record declines in April, according to VTB Capital’s GDP indicator, a gauge of economic growth, published on June 4. Rising crude oil prices will help the country narrow its budget shortfall and reduce the use of the Reserve Fund, one of its two sovereign wealth funds, Prime Minister Vladimir Putinsaid during a meeting in Moscow on June 9. The deficit, Russia’s first in a decade, may reach 10 percent of GDP this year, according to the Finance Ministry. The Reserve Fund may be exhausted by the end of next year, Finance Minster Alexei Kudrin said. Goldman predicts a contraction of 7.5 percent in GDP this year, while the International Monetary Fund on June 1 said it expected the economy to shrink 6.5 percent. Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest privately owned bank, expects the economy to contract 5.7 percent.
08.06.2009 22:12 Russia`s foreign trade surplus fell to $31.3 billion in January-April
Russia`s foreign trade surplus fell to $31.3 billion in January-April from $70.1 billion in the same period a year ago, the Federal Customs Service said. It provided the following data: Exports $77.8 billion (-47.7 percent y/y), Imports $46.5 billion (-40.9 percent y/y). Central Bank data already released, the trade surplus fell to $6.7 billion in April alone from $6.8 billion in March and $14.8 billion in April 2008. Russia`s Central Bank estimates that the country`s net trade surplus for the period January-May 2009 was $35 billion, the bank`s deputy chairman told journalists at the St. Petersburg economic forum on Saturday. Alexei Ulyukaev also said that the Central Bank had purchased less than $1 billion to restrain the ruble on the exchange market, which was also lower than the period February 1 - May 25 when the bank spent more than $30 billion on strengthening the ruble. The top bank official predicted that Russia could move towards a free floating regime for the ruble in 2010, but only if conditions were suitable, including an acceptable balance of payments and a mechanism allowing the system to be regulated through interest rates. "I wouldn`t rule out 2010," Ulyukaev said, "We have a much more liberal system now that a year ago. We have an extremely wide corridor [currency basket] 26-41 rubles." He also dismissed reports that the Central Bank had stress-tested the Russian banking system. "We have not carried out a stress test, and have no negative information. We think that the situation with the banking system is completely acceptable," Alexei Ulyukaev said.
27.05.2009 21:16 Russia`s GDP Dropped 10.5 percent in April 2009
The Russian federal government now believes the country`s GDP in 2009 will shrink between six and eight percent. In April, the GDP dropped 10,5 percent. Deputy Minister of Finance Andrey Klepachsaid that the decline in Russian GDP in the four first months of 2009 totaled 9,8 percent. In April, the drop was 10,5 percent. The official still highlighted that the drop in April was lower than in March and that the 2009 might see a total decline of 6-8 percent. The main negative issue is the decline is investments, which totaled 15,2 percent and in April and 15,8 percent over the last four months. Mr. Klepach also said that his ministry expects a 9 percent budget deficit this year, the news site informs. In his forecast presented to government and the countries federal assemblies, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the Russian budget deficit in 2010 will continue to drop to an estimated seven percent.
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