The Lastest Macroeconomic News
07.01.2019 12:31 10 predictions for the global economy in 2019
The global economy started 2018 with strong, synchronized growth. But as the year progressed, momentum faded and growth trends diverged. The US economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal stimulus enacted early in the year, while the economies of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan and China began to weaken. These divergent trends will persist in 2019. IHS Markit predicts global growth will edge down from 3.2% in 2018 to 3.1% in 2019, and keep decelerating over the next few years. One major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from over 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end. With the anticipated escalation in trade conflicts, a contraction in world trade could drag down the global economy even more. At the same time, the combined effects of rising interest rates and surging equity and commodity market volatility mean that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. These risks point to the increasing vulnerability of the global economy to further shocks and the rising probability of a recession in the next couple of years.
06.01.2019 14:22 What will happen to the US economy in 2019?
The final jobs report of 2018 released Friday, boasting 312,000 jobs added in December, puts the U.S. economy on track for another relatively strong showing in 2019, with economists predicting a slowdown coming toward the end of the year. Unemployment is one of the factors in the latest data influencing such predictions. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in December, but some economists attribute that mostly to more people entering the workforce and more people quitting their jobs — a sign that they believe they can get a job, and possibly higher pay, elsewhere. Over much of next year, the unemployment rate is expected to be around 3.7 percent before rising slightly in 2020, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia`s quarterly survey of forecasters. The forecasters also anticipate real GDP to drop slightly from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent before falling further to 2.1 percent in 2020. Inflation is not expected to take off any time soon, despite the tightened labor market. Core inflation will likely tick up to 2.4 percent from 2.2 percent in 2018, according to the forecast. And despite the recent decline in the stock market, consumer confidence remains high, which economists say is a good sign that the economy will keep running at a steady pace in the near-term. So if things look good now, why are forecasters predicting slower times ahead?
31.12.2018 14:21 World economy to grow 3.5% next year
The world economy will see an annual growth of 3.5% in 2019, according to a forecast by economists of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The forecast was contained in a book released on Thursday. The slowdown in world economic growth next year is attributable to expected weakening of the US economy - the world`s largest - after its elevated growth this year as well as financial market turbulence, limited policy tools of major economies to handle an easing and trade frictions among major trading powers, according to authors of the Yellow Book of World Economy 2019, published by the Social Sciences Academic Press (China). In the US, major economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment have been close to historic highs. That means 2018 may be a peak for the US economy, said Sun Jie, an author of the book and economist at the Institute of World Economics and Politics on Thursday.
27.12.2018 14:10 Reuters poll: Russia faces higher inflation, economic slowdown in 2019
Russia`s economy will hit some speed bumps in 2019 and inflation will rise, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Thursday, due to risks of new sanctions, a weaker rouble and a planned tax increase. Russian economic growth has been below the global average in the past few years, hampered by a weak and volatile currency, a drop in oil prices, and by sanctions first imposed by the European Union and the United States in 2014 after Russia`s annexation of Crimea. Russia`s seizure of three Ukrainian navy vessels in November prompted calls for more sanctions on Moscow. The EU decided against further measures but extended its existing ones targeting Russia`s defense, energy and banking sectors, until mid-2019. Several times in 2018, Washington has raised the possibility of more sanctions for what has called Moscow`s “malign activities”, with new penalties possibly targeting holdings of Russian state debt.
24.12.2018 20:33 How oil prices impact Russia`s economy
Russia is the second biggest oil exporter in the world, making its economy vastly dependent on the global oil market. Oil and gas exports constitute 40 percent of the total federal budget revenue of Russia. A dip in oil prices between 2014 and 2016 caused big losses to the Russian economy. The price of crude oil decreased more than 30 percent from $75 to $53 between October 2 and December 21. This is the first declining trend since February 2016, the lowest price level in the last decade. How vulnerable is Russia? Russia is missing, or has already missed, the chance to transform how it generates revenue by investing instead on military expansion, economy consultant Yakup Kocaman told TRT World. The effect of Russia`s military expansion policy will be seen in the long-term, he said, commenting on the country`s dependence on oil.
19.12.2018 15:19 The Russian economy grew slightly more than previously reported in the third quarter
Russian statistics agency Rosstat has revised the flash estimate of GDP growth in 3Q18 from previous 1.3% y/y to 1.5% y/y. The accompanying GDP breakdown by industry showed that the financial sector, trade, transportation, and extraction remaining the main growth contributors. Previously the analysts were puzzled by Rosstat revising fixed asset investment (FAI) in the economy to 5.2% y/y for 3Q18 as compared with 2.8% and 3.6% in 2Q18 and 1Q18. "Following the surprising release of FAI growth print, Rosstat has revised its flash estimate of GDP expansion in 3Q18 as well. While in November it posted the 1.3% y/y growth, currently it stands at 1.5%," VTB Capital commented.
11.12.2018 22:27 UN: Money equal to 5% of global GDP are paid in bribes or stolen every year
Trillions of dollars - equivalent to more than five per cent of global GDP - are paid in bribes or stolen through corruption every year, according to the United Nations. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres deemed corruption "an assault on the values of the United Nations," in a message on the International Anti-Corruption Day, which is marked each December 9. He said that "it robs societies of schools, hospitals and other vital services, drives away foreign investment and strips nations of their natural resources, he said. One trillion dollars are paid in bribes annually, while another 2.6 trillion are stolen; all due to corruption. The UN is fighting the global scourge, which affects both rich and poor countries, through initiatives like the global campaign launched jointly by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
07.12.2018 13:19 Meet the 5 Countries That Will Dominate the Global Economy in 2030
Mexico is currently the eleventh-largest economy in the world, and it may surprise. Partially a derivative of its proximity to the U.S. market, and partly due to preferential trade treatment with its northern neighbor, Mexico is the economy to watch. Granted, it is currently well behind Russia and Brazil. But it is more advantaged through NAFTA and, potentially, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Russia is currently isolated, Brazil is mired in a political and economic mess, and both are reliant on commodities for their growth. So, this leaves us primarily with the status quo. The United States, China and India will not be dethroned. And, despite the catch-up by fast-growing economies like Indonesia and Mexico, Japan is likely to remain a top-five economy but Germany will not. Indonesia, and possibly Mexico, will surpass Germany by 2030. The major economies will see little churn, but immediately below there will be plenty of upheaval. The current commodity price sag will cause many previously fast-growing economies to play catch-up over the next decade while rivals benefit. This would mean that four of the top five economies would be located in Asia - food for thought.
29.11.2018 13:09 Russian economy ministry sees rouble weakening gradually in long term
The Russian economy ministry, in a set of forecasts until 2036 released on Wednesday, said it expects the rouble to weaken gradually and economic growth to pick up after 2019. The rouble rate will average 61.7 against the dollar in 2018, 63.9 in 2019 and 75.2 in 2036, the ministry forecasts. The rouble traded at 67.27 against the dollar on Wednesday. Gross domestic product growth is expected to exceed 3.0 percent in 2021, up from 1.8 percent seen this year, the ministry said. The economy ministry also said it forecasts Russia`s oil production will total 549 million tonnes this year, 557 million tonnes in 2019 and 562 million tonnes in 2020. Russia is expected to export 255.7 million tonnes of crude oil in 2018, 257.7 million tonnes in 2019 and 259.2 million tonnes in 2020, the forecast envisages.
20.11.2018 18:51 Russia`s central bank sees year-end inflation close to target of 4 percent
Russia`s central bank expects year-end inflation to be around its target of 4 percent, but the balance of risks may still change ahead of its key rate meeting on Dec. 14, the head of the bank`s research department said on Tuesday. Alexander Morozov said the bank may halt foreign exchange purchases again in 2019 if there are risks to financial stability. The purchases have been on hold since August due to market volatility, and the central bank is due decide next month when and how to resume purchases. Russia`s Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin believes that consumer price inflation in Russia may exceed the forecast of 3.4% in 2018 due to exchange rate fluctuations. "Concerning the approved forecast, the risks are obviously shifted upwards (on inflation)," PRIME cited the minister as saying. "Not very much, but shifted. Our course dynamics are developing above the forecast that was laid in August. There are clear reasons why this is happening – this is connected with global markets, with possible sanctions," the minister added. "The rate in the part that affects inflation has already been largely formed. Even if the forecast for the rate can be fulfilled at the end of the year, it will not have a strong influence on this year`s inflation. Therefore, inflation will be higher than 3.4% that we have in the forecast," Oreshkin concluded.
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