The Lastest Macroeconomic News
13.12.2007 21:40 The Russian Economy Ministry has raised its GDP growth estimates for 2007 from 7.4 to 7.6 percent
The Russian Economy Ministry has raised its GDP growth estimates for 2007 from 7.4 to 7.6 percent, as stated in Minister Elvira Nabiullina`s report. The increase has been driven by the acceleration of economic growth in 2007. As reported earlier, GDP grew 6.6 percent during the previous year. To a large degree, economic growth was underpinned by a high level of investment activity. Fixed investment is expected to be up nearly 20 percent by the end of 2007, prompted largely by private investment growth. Investment from federal sources does not exceed 19 percent, having shrunk considerably over the past three years. Moreover, a significantly faster-then-expected rate of inflation was indicated as an alarming signal in the Economy Minister`s report.
11.12.2007 23:01 Russia`s trade surplus dropped 13.3 percent to $104.2 billion in January-October 2007
Russia`s trade surplus dropped 13.3 percent to $104.2 billion in January-October 2007 compared to the same period a year earlier, the Federal Custom Service (FCS) reported. According to the FCS, the foreign trade turnover increased 19.9%, to $452.5 billion in the reporting period. Exports amounted to $278.4 billion in January-July 2007, an increase of 11.9 percent from the same period of 2006. Imports totaled $174.2 billion, up 35.4 percent in the reporting period compared to the first seven months of 2006. Russia`s foreign trade surplus is expected to reach $129bn-103bn in 2007, down from $140bn in 2006, head of the Economy Ministry`s macroeconomic forecasting department Andrei Klepach said. Current account balance has dwindled as well to some $78bn compared to $96bn a year earlier. According to the Economy Ministry, trade surplus will drop to $13bn by 2010 and shift to a trade deficit in 2011. Current account balance will become negative as well by 2010, the ministry estimates.
08.12.2007 21:23 Japan`s GDP revised down in third quarter
Japan`s economy grew less than originally thought in the third quarter because of a downward revision in corporate capital investment, the government said Friday, clouding the outlook for the world`s No. 2 economy. The economy expanded at a 1.5 percent annual pace in the July-September quarter, worse than the preliminary estimate of 2.6 percent, according to figures released by the Cabinet Office. The disappointing numbers come amid worries that Japan`s growth might take a hit from a possible slowdown in the U.S. economy, which is wrestling with a credit crisis, as well as higher raw material prices. Capital spending, which accounts for 15 percent of gross domestic product, was revised down to a 1.1 percent on-quarter rise from a preliminary 1.7 percent increase. Inventories subtracted 0.1 percentage point from growth. Consumer spending, which makes up about 55 percent of the economy, was unchanged from a preliminary 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter rise.
05.12.2007 21:15 Economic growth in Eurozone would be only about 2,0% in 2008
Economic growth in Eurozone would be only about 2,0% in 2008. This view was outlined by Michael Deppler, IMF Director for Europe, at the Council of Economics and Finance Ministers (Eurogroup) in Bruxelles. Joaquín Almunia, Commissioner responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs, agreed with M. Depplerom. He`s declared, that the European Commission will be compelled to lower even more the forecast for economic growth of Eurozone next year in case of preservation of the high prices for oil, strong euro and the limited conditions for loans. Earlier, the European Commission has published the forecast for economic growth in Eurozone (13 states) and 27 countries of the European Union. It said that economic growth in Eurozone would slow down to 2,2% in 2008 in comparison with the current forecast for 2007 - 2,6%. Euro area (EA13) grew by 0.7% and EU27 GDP by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2007, compared with the previous quarter, according to first estimates released by Eurostat. In the second quarter of 2007, growth rates were +0.3% in the euro area and +0.5% in the EU27. Compared with the third quarter of 2006, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.9% in the EU27, after +2.5% and +2.8% respectively for the previous quarter.
29.11.2007 22:12 US economic growth revised up to 4.9 percent in the third quarter
The US economy surged at a 4.9 percent pace in the third quarter ahead of the impact of credit and housing ills, the government said Thursday in a revised estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). The expansion was the fastest pace in four years and was fueled by strong export growth helped by a weak dollar, and by increased business inventories. The figure was in line with most analyst forecasts. The Commerce Department estimate was revised up from an initial figure a month ago of a 3.9 percent annualized pace. Still, economists have said the significance of the July-September growth figure is minimized because activity is slowing in the face of tight credit and a depressed housing market. Exports increased 18.9 percent in the new estimate, up from 16.2 percent, including a 25.8 percent increase in goods exports as the dollar`s decline made US products more attractive to businesses and consumers abroad. Import growth was revised lower than the earlier estimate, rising 4.3 percent instead of the 5.2 percent. But consumer spending, which represents the lion`s share of economic activity, was revised down to show a 2.7 percent rise from a first estimate of a 3.0 percent gain. An increase in inventory building by businesses also contributed to faster growth. The revised number was 27.1 billion dollars, nearly three times the 9.9 billion first estimated.
27.11.2007 21:59 Russia`s GDP grew 7.4% in Jan-Oct 2007, industrial production - 6,5%
Russia`s GDP grew 7.4 percent in January-October 2007 compared to 6.6 percent in the first ten months in 2006, Russian Economy Ministry reported. The country`s GDP went up 7.5 percent in October 2007 against 6.7 percent in the third quarter 2007. Russia`s industrial output grew 6.5% year-on-year in the first ten month of 2007. Industrial production in October increased 6.1% year-on-year. The manufacturing sector was the biggest contributor to industrial production growth during the first ten months of 2007, rising 9.8 percent from January-October 2006. Inflation in Russia in October 2007 was 1.6%, in January-October - 9.3%. Russian Economy Ministry forecasts GDP will grow 7.3-7.4% this year, inflation will be 11.0-11.5%.
24.11.2007 12:55 Japan`s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter
Japan`s economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent in the July-September quarter on strong exports, the government said Tuesday, but the outlook for exports was clouded by sluggish economic signs in the United States. Gross domestic product grew a price-adjusted 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office. On an annualized basis, the July-September GDP increased by 2.6 percent. The figures beat the annualized 1.8 percent gain forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. In the April-June quarter, Japan`s GDP declined 1.2 percent on an annual basis, marking the first contraction in growth for three quarters. Although the latest results suggest Japan`s economy is still recovering, there are also worrying signs. Exports, which accounted for much of the third-quarter growth, are at a risk of decelerating because of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Another sign is that housing investment, though its contribution is small, is declining. Private residential investment plunged 7.8 percent - the largest drop since a 11.1 percent tumble in the April-June 1997 quarter - likely hurt by tighter building regulations that came into force in late June.
21.11.2007 20:15 Russia`s industrial output up 6.5% y-on-y in Jan-Oct 2007
Russia`s industrial output grew 6.5% year-on-year in the first ten month of 2007, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Industrial growth in October increased 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations. The official forecast for industrial growth in 2007 is 5.2%, but the economics ministry earlier said it could be raised. The country posted the highest industrial growth of 10.9% in June. The manufacturing sector was the biggest contributor to industrial production growth during the first ten months of 2007, rising 9.8 percent from January-October 2006. Output increased 2.1 percent in the primary sector, while declining 1.9 percent in electricity, gas and water distribution. In January-October 2007, Russia increased coal production by 1.1% and oil production - by 2.4% year-on-year, but decreased gas output by 1.3% during the same period, the statistics service said.
16.11.2007 21:02 US October industrial production down 0.5 pct, capacity utilization 81.7 pct
The Federal Reserve reported that US industrial production fell 0.5 pct in October due to across-the-board declines in production of autos, home electronics, appliances, furniture and other goods. The report also put October`s plant capacity utilization rate at 81.7 pct, down from 82.2 the prior month. Analysts were expecting a 0.1 pct rise in production and an operating rate of about 82.0 pct. September production was revised upwardly to a 0.2 pct rise from 0.1 pct, and September`s capacity use was adjusted up by a tenth of a percentage point to 82.2 pct. Utility output fell the hardest of all major industry groups, down 1.6 pct after falling just 0.1 pct in September and rising 5.2 pct in August. Manufacturing fell 0.4 pct, led by a 0.8 pct decline in machinery, 1.2 pct decline in electrical equipment and appliances, and 1.0 pct decline in autos and auto parts. Mining output fell 0.6 pct after rising 0.6 pct in September.
15.11.2007 22:06 Inflation in Russia in 2007 could exceed 11,0%, GDP growth will reach 7,4%
Inflation in Russia in 2007 could exceed 11%, the director of the Economic Development and Trade Ministry`s macroeconomic forecasting department said. Andrei Klepach told journalists that originally, inflation in 2007 was expected to reach 8% attributing the rise to structural factors like price hikes in staple foods, as well as monetary factors. Klepach said inflation in 2008 could exceed the 6-7% forecast. "We are currently specifying the inflation forecast for 2008. It looks like we won`t be within 6-7%," he said. The ministry official also said the Russian government could restrict grain exports in 2008 to curb inflation. "We may impose a direct ban or introduce an export duty," Klepach said adding that measures will depend on the market situation. He said grain exports were 3 million metric tons in October and if this trend continues, the government will consider additional measures to restrict exports. According to the economics ministry forecast, GDP growth in 2007 will reach 7.3-7.4%.
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