The Lastest Macroeconomic News
22.04.2008 20:52 IMF predicts growth slowdown for euro economies in 2008-2009
Growth in Europe is expected to slow significantly in 2008-09, reflecting spillovers from weaker global growth, rising commodity prices and the strains in financial markets. Europe`s economy is resilient but not immune to global economic threats, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday as it defended its recent gloomy outlook on the region. According to the IMF, GDP growth in the Eurozone will slow to 1.4% this year and 1.2% in 2009. In 2007, growth was 2.6%. The projections in the Regional Economic Outlook have not changed from those in the World Economic Outlook released on April 9th. Michael Deppler, the IMF`s European director, who is about to retire, said on Monday this represented a "middle-of-the-road view" of the likely effects of economic shocks such as the global financial crisis, a looming US recession and the euro`s appreciation to record levels.
19.04.2008 23:04 U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in March of 2007
U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in March, the Fed said. Production in February was revised to a drop of 0.7%, compared with the previous estimate of a 0.5% decline. Capacity utilization rose 0.2% to stand at 80.5% in March from 80.3% in the previous month. The rise in production was unexpected. Economists had been anticipating that May`s production would fall 0.1%. For the first quarter, industrial production is down 0.1%, after rising 0.4% in the final three months of 2007. This is Industrial production was up 1.6% in the past year. Utility output surged 1.9% in March, while the output of consumer goods was flat in the month. Manufacturing output rose 0.1% in March, held down by a large decline in output of motor vehicles. Output of mining rose 0.9% after rising 0.3% in February. Semiconductor production rose by 3.9%, while computer equipment rose 1.5%. Output of motor vehicles fell by 5.4% in March. Excluding motor vehicles, industrial production was up 0.6% in March. Production of non-industrial supplies rose 0.4% in March. The production of business equipment rose 0.6% remaining flat in the previous month. Output of construction materials was down 0.2% after falling 1.3% in the previous month.
15.04.2008 23:09 Russia`s industrial production expanded 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2008
Russia`s industrial production expanded 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2008 compared to the same period a year earlier. In March alone, industrial production increased 6.5 percent year-on year, and 11.7 percent compared to February 2008, the Federal State Statistics Service said. Processing industries which showed a growth of 8.7 percent made the greatest input into the industrial production index. Net capital inflow into Russia, which is reaping the benefit from high world oil prices, reached a record $82.3 billion in 2007, almost double the previous year`s figure, Russia`s Central Bank earlier said. Foreign direct investment in Russia is expected to exceed last year`s figure of $28 billion in 2008, Arkady Dvorkovich, a senior economic adviser to the Russian president, said at the Russian economic and financial forum in Switzerland in March.
13.04.2008 19:46 Euro area GDP grew by 0.4% q/q in the fourth qurter
Euro area (EA13) GDP grew by 0.4% and EU271 GDP by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates from Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In the third quarter of 2007, growth rates were +0.7% in the euro area and +0.8% in the EU27. In comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP grew in the fourth quarter of 2007 by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU27, after +2.7% and +2.9% respectively in the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2007 and among the Member States for which seasonally adjusted GDP data are available, Slovakia (+3.3%) recorded the highest growth rate compared with the previous quarter, followed by Poland (+2.0%) and the Czech Republic (+1.7%). In the fourth quarter of 2007, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and increased by 0.1% in the EU27 (after +0.5% and +0.6% in the previous quarter). Investment increased by 0.8% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU27 (after +1.1% and +1.4%). Exports rose by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU27 (after +2.0% in both zones). Imports decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU27 (after +2.5% and +3.0%).
09.04.2008 21:34 IMF expects Russia`s GDP will grow 6.8 percent in 2008 and 6.3 percent in 2009
Economic growth in Russia and emerging European economies will likely cool this year as financial market turmoil curbs access to credit and demand for oil, the International Monetary Fund said. Russia, which logged growth of 8.1 percent last year, will see growth moderate to 6.8 percent this year and then 6.3 percent next year. Growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States was expected to ease to 7.0 percent this year from 8.5 percent in 2007. Risks to the outlook were tilted to the downside. Also IMF now expects the world economy, which grew by a hardy 4.9 percent last year, to lose considerable momentum. The fund is projecting the global economy to grow by 3.7 percent this year and 3.8 percent next year. US economy will grow 0.5 percent in 2008 and 0.6 percent in 2009. Looking at other countries, the IMF trimmed its projection for Germany, with economic growth slowing to 1.4 percent this year and weakening to 1 percent in 2009. In Britain, growth will slow to 1.6 percent this year and next. France also will see growth decelerate to 1.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year. Japan`s economy will expand by 1.4 percent this year and 1.5 percent next year, which would mark a loss of momentum from last year. Canada`s growth would slow to 1.3 percent this year and pick up slightly to 1.9 percent next year. Global powerhouse China, which barreled ahead at an 11.4 percent pace last year, would see growth moderate to 9.3 percent this year and then strengthen a bit to 9.5 percent next year. India, which grew by a blistering 9.2 percent last year, is expected to grow by 7.9 percent this year and 8 percent next year.
07.04.2008 23:52 IMF again cuts global growth forecast for 2008
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2008 outlook for world economic growth for the second time this year, in a move that acknowledged housing and credit problems in the United States were exacting a heavy toll on the global economy. The IMF said it expects the pace of global growth to slow to 3.7 percent this year, down from its January forecast of 4.1 percent and lower still from the 4.8 percent rate it predicted in October last year. The latest revision puts world growth at its lowest since 2002, when growth was 3.1 percent, according to IMF data. "I can confirm the IMF`s current aggregate world growth forecast for 2008 is 3.7 percent," an IMF spokesman said, confirming reports about the IMF`s World Economic Outlook due on April 9. Earlier, IMF Chief Economist Simon Johnson said the U.S. economy has come to "a virtual standstill" and will remain weak in coming quarters owing to deeper problems in housing and credit markets. Still, Johnson avoided saying the United States was in recession. Media have reported that the IMF growth outlook will put U.S. economic growth for 2008 at 0.5 percent from a previous forecast of 1.5 percent.
06.04.2008 22:59 Eurozone inflation accelerated last month to the fastest pace since 1992
EURO-ZONE inflation accelerated last month to the fastest pace since 1992, official data showed on Monday, giving the European Central Bank more reason to look with concern on the announcement of a big wage agreement in Germany. Eurostat, the European statistics agency, said prices rose in March at a 3.5% annual rate in the 15 countries that share the euro, the highest rate since June 1992. The rate in February was 3.3%, which had itself been a record. Inflation is running far above the European Central Bank`s 2% guideline. In recent months, high prices for energy and food in particular have pushed up inflation and are cited as reasons that household spending is being held back. The concern about rising prices is not confined to the euro zone. In a speech on Monday, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, noted that "food prices on world markets are more than 50% higher, and oil prices two-thirds higher, than they were a year ago".
29.03.2008 11:42 Russian GDP growth accelerates to 8.2% y/y in February 2008
Russia`s gross domestic product growth accelerated to 8.2 percent year-on-year in February from 7.4 percent in January, the Economy Ministry said in its monthly economic review. The economy grew 8.1 percent last year. The ministry expects GDP to rise 7.1 percent in 2008 while analysts polled by Reuters predict 6.8 percent growth, according to the median forecast. "An acceleration of economic growth was a result of strong consumer and investment demand with a background of high growth tempo in the manufacturing sector," the ministry said. It said it expects the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 4.5-4.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with 3.4 percent in the same period last year when full-year inflation was 11.9 percent.
27.03.2008 23:23 US final GDP grew at a 0.6 pct annualized pace in the fourth quarter
Consumer spending and exports were up slightly while business inventories were lower, leaving the government`s estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth unrevised, the Commerce Department said. The economy grew at a 0.6 pct annualized pace in the fourth quarter, the same rate reported in the previous estimate. That matched the 0.6 pct median estimate from economists polled by Thomson IFR Markets. There was a small improvement in inflation. The headline number, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, was revised lower to 3.9 pct from 4.1 pct. Consumer spending, which makes up roughly 70 pct of the US economy, was higher in the final report, revised up to 2.3 pct growth from 1.0 pct. The Commerce Department said the major increase was in spending on services, which was revised higher to 2.8 pct growth from 2.1 pct. Foreign trade continued to provide a large counter to the domestic US economic slowdown in the final Q4 report. Exports were revised higher to 6.5 pct growth from 4.8 pct. Imports fell slightly less than previously estimated, dropping 1.4 pct compared to 1.9 pct. That left the net effect on GDP growth higher, up from a positive 0.90 percentage points to a positive 1.02 points.
24.03.2008 23:01 Russia raises 2008 GDP growth forecast to 7.1 pct, inflation to 9.5 pct
The economic development ministry raised its forecast for economic growth in 2008 to 7.1 pct from 6.7 pct, and its inflation forecast to 9.5 pct from 8.5 pct, Russian news agencies reported. Gennady Kuranov, director of the macroeconomic forecasting department said, cited by Interfax: "The inflation forecast has been raised because of the rise in food and wheat products prices". Russia`s economics ministry also raised its 2008 forecast for the annual average price of Urals oil, a benchmark blend, by 16% to $86 per barrel, a high-ranking ministry official said. "The oil price is rising. The average price will be approximately at the level of $86 per barrel. However, in the second half of the year, prices will go down," Gennady Kuranov said. The ministry earlier raised its Urals forecast for the year in late January, from $56 to $74. In 2006 the annual average price for the Urals oil was $61 per barrel.