The Lastest Macroeconomic News
24.02.2008 16:23 US economy may still avert recession - ECRI
A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and even though its annualized growth rate has reached readings seen in a recession, there might still be a chance to reverse it, a research group said. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 132.3 in the week of Feb. 15 from 133.1 in the prior week, which was revised from 133.4. The index fell due to higher interest rates and slower housing, offset in part by a rise in money supply and stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. The index`s annualized growth rate plunged to minus 10.2 percent from minus 9.2 percent, reaching its lowest reading since the week of Oct. 26, 2001, when it was minus 11 percent. "With WLI growth deep in negative territory, due mainly to weakness in the financial and construction sectors, the U.S. economy is on the verge of a recession," said Achuthan. "However, due to unusual factors affecting the manufacturing sector, it may still be possible for quick stimulus to avert a recession."
19.02.2008 21:53 Russian industrial output grew 4.8 pct year-on-year in January 2008
Russian industrial output grew 4.8 pct year-on-year in January, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Analysts forecasted growth of 4.9 pct. However, this was well below the 8.4 pct year-on-year industrial growth seen in January 2007. Compared with December, industrial production fell 14.1 pct. Russia`s industrial production rose 6.3% in 2007, year on year, Rostat said. The figures surpassed preliminary forecasts that suggested the figure would reach around 4-5%. Russian manufacturing, which posted a 4.4% growth in 2006, showed a 9.3% rise last year. Experts say that the overall growth indicates that Russia successfully coped with the "first wave" of the U.S. subprime loan crisis in August 2007 and ensuing global downturn. Deutsche Bank forecasts 6.2% growth in industrial production, with GDP reaching 7% in 2008.
17.02.2008 19:35 Japan GDP grows 0.9 percent in Q4 2007, beats forecast
The Japanese economy grew 0.9 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter, or at an annualized rate of 3.7 percent, buoyed by brisk capital investment and consumer spending, the Cabinet Office said. In addition, rising demand from emerging markets such as China lifted Japan`s exports, helping the world`s second-largest economy expand for the second straight quarter. The growth was ahead market expectations. Ten economists polled by Thomson Financial News were looking at 0.4 percent expansion for the quarter and an annualized pace of 1.5 percent, on average. Gross domestic product for the third quarter was revised down to show a rise of 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent growth reported in December. Annualized, GDP grew 1.3 percent, slower than the 1.5 percent growth announced earlier. GDP in nominal terms, or before adjusting for inflation, rose 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter and at an annualized rate of 1.2 percent. The GDP deflator, which measures the degree of deflation, fell 1.3 percent from a year earlier, after declining by a revised 0.6 percent in July-September.
16.02.2008 19:11 U.S. January industrial production up 0.1% as expected for 2nd month
U.S. January industrial production avoided a recessionary foray below zero, managing a second small monthly increase, the Federal Reserve reported. The output of U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.1%, the same as the revised December growth and right on the number analysts were expecting. February`s capacity utilization rate also held steady, at 81.5% for the third month in a row. Manufacturing avoided negative territory in January, with no change in production following a revised 0.2% gain in December. A 1.3% drop in motor vehicles and another drop in housing-related products were offset by gains in computers and other business equipment and in non-durable goods. Utilities benefited from cold-weather demand with output rising 2.2%. Mining fell 1.8% as oil and gas well drilling declined. Year-over-year U.S. industrial production was up 2.3%.
15.02.2008 23:37 Eurozone GDP rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2007
Eurozone quarterly GDP rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2007, down from the previous period`s 0.8% increase but marginally higher than the consensus 0.3% increase. Annual GDP rose 2.3% in Q4 compared to forecasts for a 2.2% increase and previous 2.7% gain. All individual euro-members experienced quarter-over-quarter GDP gains in the fourth quarter, with Germany growing by 0.3%, Spain by 0.8%, Portugal by 0.7% and France by 0.3%. On the other hand, Portugal`s economy contracted in the third quarter, shrinking 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, while Germany, France and Spain had all witnessed GDP expansion during the same period, growing 0.7%, 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. Growth in the Eurozone GDP is expected to be between 1.6 and 1.8 pct in 2008.
12.02.2008 22:13 Russia`s GDP could grow 7.0% in 2008 instead of the planned 6.6%
Russia`s GDP could grow by 7.0% in 2008 instead of the planned 6.6%, while food prices are unlikely to follow last year`s trend of sharp increases, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said. Speaking in Japan at a meeting of finance ministers from the G7 group of industrialized nations plus Russia, Kudrin said Russia had a good chance of keeping inflation within 8.5% in 2008. According to Russia`s statistics service, the country`s GDP grew 8.1% in 2007. In the past five years, the Russian economy has grown at an annual rate of 7% plus, except for 2005, when GDP expanded 6.4%. In 2006, GDP grew 7.4%. Inflation in Russia stood at 11.9% in 2007, exceeding the government`s initial target of 8% for last year. Inflation in 2006 was 9%, in line with government targets.
07.02.2008 22:39 Russia`s trade surplus stood at $152.8bn in 2007 vs $163.4 in 2006
Russia`s trade surplus stood at $152.8bn in 2007, which is 6.49 percent lower than a year earlier, the Russian Federal Customs Service reported. Meanwhile, Russia`s foreign trade jumped 25.8 percent to $552.2bn compared to 2006, including trade worth $469.8bn with countries outside the CIS (up 25.5 percent) and $82.4bn with the CIS (up 27.4 percent). Russia`s exports amounted to $352.5bn (up 17 percent), including $299.9bn worth of goods exported to countries outside the CIS up (15.8-percent increase), and $52.6bn worth of goods sold to the CIS ( 24.3-percent rise). Imports totaled $199.7bn, up 44.9 percent from the previous year, including $169.9bn worth of goods received from countries outside the CIS (up 47.2 percent), and $29.8bn (up 33.4 percent) from the CIS.
05.02.2008 21:33 U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in January at the fastest pace since the 2001 recession
U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in January at the fastest pace since the 2001 recession as the housing slump deepened and consumer spending cooled. The Institute for Supply Management`s non-manufacturing index, which reflects almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 41.9, from 54.4 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based ISM said. The index was projected to fall to 53, the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 65 economists. The ISM group`s index of new orders for non-manufacturing industries fell to 43.5 from 53.9 the prior month. An index of employment dropped to 43.9 from 51.8, and a gauge of supplier deliveries decreased to 49 from 52.5. A measure of prices paid also dropped to 70.7 from 71.5.
31.01.2008 22:30 US GDP slows to 0.6% in fourth quarter, 2.2% in 2007
The U.S. economy barely grew in the fourth quarter, pulled down by a worsening slump in housing and heightened caution by consumers and businesses, the Commerce Department reported. The 0.6% annualized growth rate in gross domestic product was lower than the 1.1% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The drag from inventories was larger than expected. Consumer spending and business investments slowed slightly in the fourth quarter, while investments in houses fell at the fastest rate in 26 years. Businesses reduced their inventories. Exports grew at a slower pace as well. The economy grew at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter. For all of 2007, GDP grew 2.2%, the slowest growth since 2002. GDP increased at a 2.9% rate in 2006.
30.01.2008 20:56 Russian industrial output up 6.3 percent in 2007
Russia`s annual industrial output growth quickened to 6.3 percent in 2007 from 3.9 percent in 2006 due to rapid expansion of the manufacturing sector, the Federal Statistics Service said. Manufacturing rose 9.3 percent last year, while mining output increased 1.9 percent. Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water was down 0.2 percent from 2006. "I think this is a good result, which shows that industrial production supports high rates of economic growth," said Natalia Orlova, analyst at Alfa Bank. "These numbers show that the competitiveness of Russian producers is declining as a result of the rouble strengthening, but they are still good to measure by global standards," she said. In December, industrial production rose 6.5 percent compared with 4.7 percent in November and 1.9 percent in December 2006.
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