The Lastest Macroeconomic News

04.07.2018 21:59 Global economy under threat as tariff war bites

Global economic growth is under threat as the world`s economic super powers trade tit-for-tat trade sanctions, according to the World Trade Organization. In its most sober assessment of the growing tariff war between the US, European Union and China, the WTO said the global system of agreed trade rules was at "potentially large risk". It said world economic growth was "in jeopardy" and pleaded for a "de-escalation". The threat of a tariff war was sparked after US President Donald Trump ordered tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the EU and China.

26.06.2018 20:51 Stronger US GDP in Q2

The US gross domestic product (GDP) is anticipated to grow at a much stronger pace in the second quarter, underpinned by stronger retails sales, according to AmBank Group. Its chief economist Anthony Dass said last week he expect the second quarter GDP to be much stronger, supported by strong consumer spending which should grow around 3.7% due to tax cuts, and net exports that would help lift GDP growth by about 1% in the quarter. Hence, we have revised the second quarter growth GDP growth to 3.8% from previously 2.8%, higher than the first quarter growth of 2.2%. If the economy grows at our projected growth rate, it would be the best since the third quarter of 2014, he noted.

21.06.2018 18:28 Central bank: World Cup to add 0.1-0.2 percentage points to Russia`s GDP

The holding of the 2018 FIFA World Cup will increase Russia`s Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in 2018 by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, the country`s central bank said. "Holding such a large-scale international event will additionally support the growth (in production) in the second quarter, and by the end of the year, its contribution to GDP growth may reach 0.1-0.2 percentage points," governor of the Russian central bank Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference. Meanwhile, the head of the bank said the World Cup will have little influence on Russia`s inflation, with only short-time effects in certain cities and on certain goods and services, primarily consumed by tourists. She also expressed hope that the games will only have a positive impact on "expectations and sentiments" of both Russian citizens and foreign guests. According to its press service, the central bank forecasts Russia`s annual GDP growth in 2018 to be 1.5 to 2 percent, and annual inflation 3.5 to 4 percent at the end of the year. The 2018 World Cup kicked off here on Thursday and is scheduled to be held till July 15, with a total of 64 matches to be played at 12 stadiums in 11 Russian cities.

15.06.2018 16:39 Global GDP Growth Forecast at 3.2 Percent

The global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3.2% growth rate in 2018, Conference Board, the New York-based economic research association, said in its latest Global Economic Outlook 2018. The forecast is slightly down from the association`s February prediction of 3.3%. A modest dip in global growth momentum is primarily driven by a maturing business cycle in the eurozone and a slightly weaker growth outlook in emerging markets, driven by US dollar appreciation and rising interest rates, as well as more challenging economic conditions in Brazil, Russia and Turkey, the report said. Momentum in mature economies improved last year and will continue growing at about the same pace through 2018. Mature economies are expected to grow by 2.4% in 2018, unchanged from 2017, the report said.

06.06.2018 16:02 Man-made risks forecast to cost world`s cities $320bn each year on average

Man-made risks like cyber-crime, interstate conflicts or market crashes are a bigger threat to economic output than natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and volcanoes, putting an estimated $320.1 billion of global GDP at risk on average each year, according to Lloyd`s, the world`s specialist insurance and reinsurance market. The Lloyd`s City Risk Index, built in collaboration with Cambridge University, is a unique study measuring the impact of 22 threats on 279 cities` projected economic output. The index reveals that 279 cities across the world the key engines of global economic growth with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $35.4 trillion risk losing on average $546.5bn in economic output annually from all 22 threats. This comprises $320.1bn to man-made risks and $226.4bn to natural catastrophes.

01.06.2018 14:51 India`s economic growth jumps to 7.7% in the quarter ended March

The world`s fastest growing major economy is getting even hotter. India`s gross domestic product grew by 7.7% in the quarter ended March, the government said Thursday. That`s a big jump from the revised 7% growth rate recorded the previous quarter. It also means India continues to grow faster than China, which posted growth of 6.8% in the first quarter of 2018. "Rapid growth in agriculture (4.5%), manufacturing (9.1%) and construction sectors (11.5%) contributed to the overall growth," the Indian government said. Growth for the 2017-2018 financial year as a whole came in at 6.7%, according to provisional figures.

24.05.2018 19:43 World Bank lowers economic forecast of Russia

The World Bank has lowered forecast for economic growth in Russia in 2018 to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent earlier. The organization warned that Russia might face more years of modest economic prospects but said these forecasts could change because of change in the price of oil. Crude oil prices have been on a rising note recently, oil prices went up to their highest prices since 2014, due to several measures were taken by OPEC and other oil producing countries to curb supplies. Referring to the Russian economy, the World Bank said, Relatively high oil prices, continued momentum in the global economic growth and macro stabilization would support growth. Russia recently, launched Akademik Lomonosov, the world`s first floating nuclear power plant, at a ceremony in the port of the far northern city of Murmansk where it will be loaded with nuclear fuel before heading to eastern Siberia.

20.05.2018 14:46 Russia GDP Growth Looks Weak, But Not Terrible

The weaker than expected GDP numbers keep the central bank easing story in 2018 intact, but the interest rate path will be data-dependent. The flash GDP growth estimate of 1.3% in 1Q18 undershot consensus expectations of 1.5% and our optimistic forecast of 1.8%. However, it was somewhat better than the preliminary Ministry of Economy (MinEco) estimate of 1.1% and was also a modest improvement from 0.9% observed in 4Q17. The key components breakdown is unavailable right now, but we know that negative performance in construction, wholesale and some sub-sectors in the industry resulted in weaker 1Q reading in March than was originally expected in early 2018. The Ministry has recently said it would cut its 2018 growth forecast from the current 2.1% despite a higher oil price assumption.

17.05.2018 19:32 Will $100 Oil Kill The U.S. Economy?

Brent is nearing $80 per barrel and some analyst see $100 not far off. That raises the question about how much of a dent high oil prices will make in the U.S. economy. $100 oil is not as painful as it once was. There are a few reasons for that. The U.S. is now a significant oil exporter, helping to lessen the damage to its trade balance. Also, the economy uses less energy per unit of GDP than it used to, becoming slightly more efficient with each passing year. In the past, high oil prices dragged down the U.S. economy, acting as a tax that redistributed wealth from the U.S. to oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, for example. But, the shale revolution has allowed the U.S. to become one of the largest oil producers in the world, and more recently, an exporter of more than 2 million barrels per day (depending on the week). Now, to a large extent, higher oil prices redistribute wealth within the U.S., still damaging the vast majority of motorists, but benefitting a variety of industries related to the oil industry.

13.05.2018 17:03 Debt Paradox Means Russia Borrows More Even as Oil Prices Rally

Oil prices near the highest level in over three years are driving the world`s biggest energy exporter deeper into debt. While Russia stands to reap a windfall from crude`s recent rally, with the budget now on track for its first surplus since 2011, a program of foreign-currency purchases by the Finance Ministry means that it needs more rubles to conduct the operations when the exchange rate appreciates thanks to higher oil prices. Instead of quenching the government`s financing needs, the result is that borrowing in rubles will actually rise close to last year`s record level to absorb the extra dollars in line with the so-called budget rule. The budget rule made sovereign-debt issuance a function of the exchange rate, said Anatoliy Shal, analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Moscow. Budget amendments are based on a higher oil assumption and imply a stronger ruble, hence the upward revision to issuance plans.

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