The Lastest Macroeconomic News
03.04.2019 14:38 Lagarde says the global economy has lost momentum since January
The world economy in a `precarious` position, says the IMF`s managing director, Christine Lagarde. Picture: Matthew Lloyd, Bloomberg The world economy in a `precarious` position, says the IMF`s managing director, Christine Lagarde. Global growth has lost momentum since the start of the year, leaving the world economy in a “precarious” position, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said. The global economy has weakened since the International Monetary Fund last updated its forecast in late January, though a recession isn`t likely in the near term, Lagarde said Tuesday in remarks prepared for a speech at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington. In January, the fund lowered its projection for world economic growth, forecasting expansion of 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2020. It was the IMF`s second cut in the outlook in three months. The fund will release its new World Economic Outlook with an updated growth forecast on April 9. “The global economy is at a `delicate moment,`” Lagarde said. Her warning comes as global finance ministers and central bankers prepare to convene in Washington next week for the semi-annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. While confidence has been boosted by the Federal Reserve`s switch to a more patient stance and signs of a trade deal between the US and China, investors remain concerned the global expansion may be running out of steam a decade after the financial crisis.
27.03.2019 15:16 Russia has sufficient resources to implement national projects
Russia has enough resources to implement its national projects outlined by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the next five years, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday. "Now, on this foundation, we can build more actively a new type of economy, with a high-tech industry, good export potential and, of course, a large package of affordable and modern social services for people," he told a meeting of senior Finance Ministry officials. Last month, the Russian government said it planned to spend over 25.7 trillion rubles (399 billion U.S. dollars) on projects in a dozen national strategic development areas in 2019-2024. The plan followed a decree signed by Putin in May last year, which outlined the roadmap and targets for national development in a wide range of areas in the years leading up to 2024, including economic growth and technology.
26.03.2019 19:22 Ukraine`s GDP growth hits 7-year high in 2018
Ukraine`s gross domestic product (GDP) growth hit a seven-year high of 3.3 percent in 2018, official data showed on Friday. The Ukrainian Economic Development and Trade Ministry said on Facebook that the growth was driven by the high domestic demand and strong investment. In the same time, the ministry pointed out that the pace of the economic growth last year was overshadowed by the tensions with Russia. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Ukraine`s GDP grew 3.5 percent year-on-year instead of 3.4 percent estimated earlier due to the strong performance in the construction sector and industry, the ministry said. The Ukrainian economy sank into recession in the first quarter of 2014 and suffered a consolidated decline of 16.5 percent in 2014-2015. Ukraine`s GDP rose by 2.5 percent in 2017, after growing 2.3 percent in 2016. The government has estimated that the economy will rise 3 percent this year.
22.03.2019 13:02 EBRD predicts 3.5-percent GDP growth for Kazakhstan in 2019
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Transition Report forecasts steady growth for the Kazakh economy, as major structural reforms are expected to improve the situation further. “Kazakhstan`s real GDP grew 4 percent in 2017 and a little bit more in 2018. This has been driven since 2017 primarily by exports and a recovery in private consumption has started to be a driver of GDP growth since 2018,” said EBRD Associate Director and Lead Regional Economist Hans Holzhacker. “Oil is a large part of exports,” he added. “Roughly 65 percent of exports in dollar terms are oil exports. There has been a significant increase since 2016. This peaked in the third quarter of 2018, mostly because prices have come down. There was also an increase in production, like a 5 percent increase in 2018 over 2017, as Kashagan started to produce more.” Private consumption has been a growth driver largely because real incomes finally started to improve last year. The solid growth, however, was neither driven nor accompanied by credit expansion, credit growth or the banking system as a whole.
20.03.2019 15:29 US economic growth is likely to slow sharply this year and next
U.S. economic growth is likely to slow sharply this year and next, according to respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, and weaker global growth and tariffs are seen as the major culprits. The average forecast for gross domestic product growth this year is just 2.3 percent, down from 2.44 percent expected in the January survey and a further slowing from the actual 3.1 percent year-over-year pace for the fourth quarter of 2018. Economic growth is seen stepping below 2 percent in 2020, according to the survey. The outlook for slower growth has prompted the 43 survey respondents to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year and next - barely forecasting one hike and some even seeing rate cuts on the horizon. Asked about the biggest threats to the U.S. expansion, slowing global growth and protectionist trade policies ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.
13.03.2019 21:28 Russia`s goods trade surplus up 20% in 2018 to $212bn
Russian customs reports that in 2018 the country`s goods trade surplus climbed to $212bn, or roughly 12% of GDP. Russia is now running a triple surplus again for the first time in years: trade, current account and federal budget. Both the budget and the current account surpluses are at record levels. The record trade surplus was driven partly by the rise in oil prices in 2018, but falling imports, especially falling food imports, played at least as important a role. Exports remain heavily weighted towards hydrocarbons, which totaled $260bn in December - more than half of Russia`s exports, with minerals and base metals making up another $48.7bn from the total of $461bn. Imports are half as much as Russia`s exports, which has led to the record current account surplus in 2018. Imports are more evenly distributed but the top four items – machinery ($80.7bn), chemicals ($32.4bn), vehicles ($28.4bn), and base metals ($18.5bn) – accounting for 70% of the total imports to Russia.
11.03.2019 23:16 Global Economy Hits Its Weakest Spell Since Financial Crisis
The global economy`s sharp loss of speed through 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago, according to Bloomberg Economics. Its new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1 percent on a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis, down from about 4 percent in the middle of last year. While there`s a chance that the economy may find a foothold and arrest the slowdown, “the risk is that downward momentum will be self-sustaining,” say economists Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik. The reasons for hope? The Federal Reserve`s decision to pause its interest-rate hikes, a U.S.-China trade truce and the fading of the shocks that battered Europe in 2018 could mean stabilization is around the corner. Other central banks have also stepped up, with the European Central Bank last week announcing new measures to help the economy through the current weakness.
28.02.2019 16:11 AI Will Add $15 Trillion To The World Economy By 2030
Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer the stuff of science fiction. The technology is already disrupting multiple industries, many of which impact you on a daily basis. Own an iPhone X? Its facial recognition system is powered by AI. Ever been redirected by Google Maps because of an accident or construction ahead? You guessed it: AI. And those are just a couple of small examples. By one estimate, AI contributed a whopping $2 trillion to global GDP last year. By 2030, it could be as much as $15.7 trillion, “making it the biggest commercial opportunity in today`s fast changing economy,” according to a recent report by PwC. “AI is the new electricity,” says Chinese-English computer scientist and entrepreneur Andrew Ng. “I can hardly imagine an industry which is not going to be transformed by AI.” Among the industries that have been fastest to adopt AI, according to PwC, are health care, automotive and financial services. Earlier and more accurate diagnostics, powered by AI, means earlier treatment of life-threatening diseases. Once on the market, self-driving cars will free up an estimated 300 hours the typical American spends driving every year. And more and more people are putting their trust in robo-advisors to manage their wealth.
26.02.2019 14:48 Asia Will Drive Global Economy In 2019
Asia will drive the global economy in 2019, according to an analysis of 40 major economies based on inflation and GDP growth forecasts by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The company`s analysis categorizes each country by "Low", "Moderate" and "High" GDP growth rate together with "High Inflationary Economies" during the period 2014-2018 (annual average). Principally located in Asia and accounting for more than half of the world`s GDP growth in 2019, high-growth economies include Indonesia, India, Malaysia, The Philippines, China, Turkey and Ireland. Amid the ongoing trade war with the US, which is likely to have a significant impact on the Chinese economy, the government has initiated a number of steps for sustaining the buoyancy of the economy. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has relaxed its restriction on large-scale investments by local government in May 2018, and in October 2018, the People`s Bank of China increased the refinancing and rediscounting quota by CNY150 billion (US$21.96 billion) to support small and micro enterprises.
22.02.2019 12:49 World Bank: Price tag for climate-smart infra is 4.5% of GDP
The World Bank on Thursday said developing countries like the Philippines should ramp up spending on “climate-smart” infrastructure to help stay on track to limit climate change to up to 2°C. In its “Beyond the Gap” report, the Washington-based multilateral lender said infrastructure spending of 4.5 percent of gross domestic product would enable universal access to water, sanitation and electricity, as well as better mobility, food security and flood protection. “Our analysis clearly shows that developing countries can build the climate-smart infrastructure they need by spending around 4.5 percent of GDP. The good news is this is close to what many countries already spend,” said Kristalina Georgieva, interim president of the World Bank Group. “With the right choices, infrastructure can be built that helps achieve globally agreed emissions targets. The focus must be on smarter and more resilient investments, not necessarily more money,” Georgieva added.