The Lastest Macroeconomic News

22.12.2007 18:38 Euro zone October trade surplus rises as exports gain

The euro zone had a higher-than-expected trade surplus in October despite a continued rise in the euro as exports grew faster than imports, the European Union`s statistics office said. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus of the 13 countries using the euro totalled 6.1 billion euros ($8.75 billion), up from 2.4 billion a year before and 3.7 billion in September, Eurostat said. Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected a surplus of 4.1 billion euros for October. Exports grew by 11 percent year-on-year in October, while imports rose 8 percent. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus was 4 billion euros, up from 3.6 billion in September with exports up 2.3 percent against the previous month and imports rising 2.0 percent. More detailed data for October was not yet available, but January-September figures showed substantial increases in the trade surplus with Britain and a fall in the trade gap with Russia compared with the same period of 2006.

20.12.2007 21:00 No revision as US growth stands at 4.9 percent in Q3 2007

The U.S. economy expanded at its fastest rate in four years during the third quarter, the government confirmed on Thursday, though it has slowed sharply since and is expected to keep doing so in 2008. The Commerce department said gross domestic product, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, expanded at a 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter - a final reading on performance that was unrevised from the estimate it made a month ago. Third-quarter growth was the strongest since GDP expanded at a 7.5 percent rate in the third quarter of 2003. Faster exports and increased inventory-building accounted for the pickup in third-quarter growth from the second quarter`s 3.8 percent pace, but many economists say the ongoing drag from a weak housing sector and credit market turmoil will slow fourth-quarter expansion to 1 percent or less. Spending on new-home building contracted at a 20.5 percent rate during the third quarter, the steepest fall in more than 16 years, since a 21.7 plunge at the start of 1991 when the economy was headed toward a recession. The GDP report showed a price gauge closely watched by the Fed - personal consumption spending excluding food and energy - rising at a revised 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter instead of the 1.8 percent it estimated a month ago. Prices rose at a more modest 1.4 percent pace in the second quarter.

18.12.2007 21:50 Russia`s industrial output increased 6.3 percent in January-November 2007

Russia`s industrial output increased 6.3 percent in January-November 2007 compared to the same period in 2006, the Russian Federal State Statistics Service reported today. Industrial production grew 4.7 percent in November 2007 compared to that of the same month a year earlier, but slid 0.8 percent from the previous month. Processing industry grew 9.4 percent during the first eleven months of 2007 compared to January-November 2006, contributing the most to overall industrial growth. The primary sector edged up 2 percent, while the production and distribution of energy, gas, and water dropped 1.3 percent. In January-October 2007 Russia`s industrial output grew 6.5% year-on-year. Industrial growth in October increased 6.1% year-on-year.

15.12.2007 16:26 US November industrial production rises 0.3 percent

US industrial production rose substantially faster than expected last month on a rebound in auto production and continued business equipment investment. The Commerce Department reported the output of US factories, mines and utilities was up 0.3 pct in November compared with a median 0.1 pct rise expected by economists. November`s operating rate was 81.5 pct of capacity, below the expected 81.7 pct rate, but edging up from the revised 81.4 pct rate in October. Manufacturing production was up 0.4 pct last month after falling 0.6 pct in October. It got a big boost from 1.9 pct growth in the auto industry that followed three straight monthly declines. Automakers were getting back to normal operations after strikes and labor negotiations disrupted the assembly lines. The mining category, which includes oil wells, benefited from higher prices and had 1.1 pct higher output. Total US industrial production for November was 2.1 pct higher than a year earlier.

13.12.2007 21:40 The Russian Economy Ministry has raised its GDP growth estimates for 2007 from 7.4 to 7.6 percent

The Russian Economy Ministry has raised its GDP growth estimates for 2007 from 7.4 to 7.6 percent, as stated in Minister Elvira Nabiullina`s report. The increase has been driven by the acceleration of economic growth in 2007. As reported earlier, GDP grew 6.6 percent during the previous year. To a large degree, economic growth was underpinned by a high level of investment activity. Fixed investment is expected to be up nearly 20 percent by the end of 2007, prompted largely by private investment growth. Investment from federal sources does not exceed 19 percent, having shrunk considerably over the past three years. Moreover, a significantly faster-then-expected rate of inflation was indicated as an alarming signal in the Economy Minister`s report.

11.12.2007 23:01 Russia`s trade surplus dropped 13.3 percent to $104.2 billion in January-October 2007

Russia`s trade surplus dropped 13.3 percent to $104.2 billion in January-October 2007 compared to the same period a year earlier, the Federal Custom Service (FCS) reported. According to the FCS, the foreign trade turnover increased 19.9%, to $452.5 billion in the reporting period. Exports amounted to $278.4 billion in January-July 2007, an increase of 11.9 percent from the same period of 2006. Imports totaled $174.2 billion, up 35.4 percent in the reporting period compared to the first seven months of 2006. Russia`s foreign trade surplus is expected to reach $129bn-103bn in 2007, down from $140bn in 2006, head of the Economy Ministry`s macroeconomic forecasting department Andrei Klepach said. Current account balance has dwindled as well to some $78bn compared to $96bn a year earlier. According to the Economy Ministry, trade surplus will drop to $13bn by 2010 and shift to a trade deficit in 2011. Current account balance will become negative as well by 2010, the ministry estimates.

08.12.2007 21:23 Japan`s GDP revised down in third quarter

Japan`s economy grew less than originally thought in the third quarter because of a downward revision in corporate capital investment, the government said Friday, clouding the outlook for the world`s No. 2 economy. The economy expanded at a 1.5 percent annual pace in the July-September quarter, worse than the preliminary estimate of 2.6 percent, according to figures released by the Cabinet Office. The disappointing numbers come amid worries that Japan`s growth might take a hit from a possible slowdown in the U.S. economy, which is wrestling with a credit crisis, as well as higher raw material prices. Capital spending, which accounts for 15 percent of gross domestic product, was revised down to a 1.1 percent on-quarter rise from a preliminary 1.7 percent increase. Inventories subtracted 0.1 percentage point from growth. Consumer spending, which makes up about 55 percent of the economy, was unchanged from a preliminary 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter rise.

05.12.2007 21:15 Economic growth in Eurozone would be only about 2,0% in 2008

Economic growth in Eurozone would be only about 2,0% in 2008. This view was outlined by Michael Deppler, IMF Director for Europe, at the Council of Economics and Finance Ministers (Eurogroup) in Bruxelles. Joaquín Almunia, Commissioner responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs, agreed with M. Depplerom. He`s declared, that the European Commission will be compelled to lower even more the forecast for economic growth of Eurozone next year in case of preservation of the high prices for oil, strong euro and the limited conditions for loans. Earlier, the European Commission has published the forecast for economic growth in Eurozone (13 states) and 27 countries of the European Union. It said that economic growth in Eurozone would slow down to 2,2% in 2008 in comparison with the current forecast for 2007 - 2,6%. Euro area (EA13) grew by 0.7% and EU27 GDP by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2007, compared with the previous quarter, according to first estimates released by Eurostat. In the second quarter of 2007, growth rates were +0.3% in the euro area and +0.5% in the EU27. Compared with the third quarter of 2006, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.9% in the EU27, after +2.5% and +2.8% respectively for the previous quarter.

29.11.2007 22:12 US economic growth revised up to 4.9 percent in the third quarter

The US economy surged at a 4.9 percent pace in the third quarter ahead of the impact of credit and housing ills, the government said Thursday in a revised estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). The expansion was the fastest pace in four years and was fueled by strong export growth helped by a weak dollar, and by increased business inventories. The figure was in line with most analyst forecasts. The Commerce Department estimate was revised up from an initial figure a month ago of a 3.9 percent annualized pace. Still, economists have said the significance of the July-September growth figure is minimized because activity is slowing in the face of tight credit and a depressed housing market. Exports increased 18.9 percent in the new estimate, up from 16.2 percent, including a 25.8 percent increase in goods exports as the dollar`s decline made US products more attractive to businesses and consumers abroad. Import growth was revised lower than the earlier estimate, rising 4.3 percent instead of the 5.2 percent. But consumer spending, which represents the lion`s share of economic activity, was revised down to show a 2.7 percent rise from a first estimate of a 3.0 percent gain. An increase in inventory building by businesses also contributed to faster growth. The revised number was 27.1 billion dollars, nearly three times the 9.9 billion first estimated.

27.11.2007 21:59 Russia`s GDP grew 7.4% in Jan-Oct 2007, industrial production - 6,5%

Russia`s GDP grew 7.4 percent in January-October 2007 compared to 6.6 percent in the first ten months in 2006, Russian Economy Ministry reported. The country`s GDP went up 7.5 percent in October 2007 against 6.7 percent in the third quarter 2007. Russia`s industrial output grew 6.5% year-on-year in the first ten month of 2007. Industrial production in October increased 6.1% year-on-year. The manufacturing sector was the biggest contributor to industrial production growth during the first ten months of 2007, rising 9.8 percent from January-October 2006. Inflation in Russia in October 2007 was 1.6%, in January-October - 9.3%. Russian Economy Ministry forecasts GDP will grow 7.3-7.4% this year, inflation will be 11.0-11.5%.

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