The Lastest Macroeconomic News
13.01.2007 14:06 The monitoring report on the current economic situation in Russia in January-November 2006
Russian gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.8% year-on-year in January-November 2006, the economics ministry said this week. GDP growth in the first eleven months of last year was in line with the projected figure of 6.8% for the whole of 2006. In January-November 2005, Russian GDP grew 6.2%, the ministry said. Industrial output expanded 4.1% year-on-year during the period, while inflation increased 8.2% against 10% in the first eleven months of 2005. Russian foreign trade totaled $419.1 billion with a surplus of $130.5 billion in January-November 2006, the ministry said. Goods exports grew by an estimated 25.42% year-on-year in January-November 2006 to $274.8 billion, while imports were up 29.53% to $144.3 billion. The economics ministry projects GDP growth at 6.2% and inflation at 6.5-8% in 2007.
11.01.2007 20:07 UN predicts slowdown of world economy
The United Nations has predicted a deceleration of the world economy this year after three straight years of growth with American economy weakening dragged down by softening housing market. The growth of world gross product (WFP) is forecast to moderate its pace to 3.2 percent from estimated 3.8 percent during the last year. The report holds out the possibility of much stronger slowdown in American economy, leading to sustained risks. These include dollar losing its value too fast or inability of the United States to draw outside investments. The economic growth rate in Europe is expected to slow down to 2 percent and in Japan below 2 percent.
08.01.2007 12:59 The OECD said the euro zone economic recovery seems set to continue over the next year or two
The OECD said the euro zone economic recovery seems set to continue over the next year or two. The latest economic news is encouraging and bodes well for the immediate future, - it said. Growth in the near term is likely to be at or slightly above the potential growth rate of just over 2 pct annually, it said. The OECD reiterated its forecasts for GDP growth of 2.2 pct in 2007 and 2.3 pct in 2008, after growth of 2.6 pct last year. This points to growth rates of around 0.6 pct per quarter in 2007 and 2008, it said. But it said the growth forecast for the euro zone is still modest by OECD standards, and action is needed to boost its potential growth rate and increase its resilience to shocks. This means easing employment protection legislation, increasing wage flexibility and reducing barriers to labour mobility.
04.01.2007 17:21 The ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.4 in December 2006
Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly expanded and construction spending fell less than forecast, signaling the worst of the economic slowdown is over. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.4 in December from 49.5 in November, when activity contracted for the first time in more than three years. Spending on construction dropped 0.2 percent in November after a 0.3 percent drop in October that was smaller than originally reported, the Commerce Department said. The ISM measure of prices paid for raw materials fell to 47.5 from 53.5 the month before. The ISM new orders index, which makes up about a third of the total index, rose to 52.1 from 48.7. The production index, a measure of work being performed, rose to 51.8 from 48.5. The inventory index fell to 48.4 in December from 49.7.
03.01.2007 13:49 European manufacturing growth unexpectedly slowed in December 2006
European manufacturing growth unexpectedly slowed in December 2006 after interest rates rose and the stronger euro clouded the outlook for exports. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said today its manufacturing index fell to 56.5, the lowest in nine months, from 56.6 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth. Economists expected the gauge, compiled by NTC Economics Ltd. from a survey of 3,000 purchasing managers, to rise to 56.8, the median of 25 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. A gauge of manufacturing in Germany, the largest economy in Europe, jumped to 59.4 from 58.3. Growth accelerated in Italy and Spain and slowed in France.
30.12.2006 13:18 The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 109.0 in December 2006
The Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 109.0 in December from a revised 105.3 in November and 105.1 in October. The reading was the highest since the index registered 109.8 in April 2006 and was better than Wall Street anticipated. Analysts had been expecting a slight dip in the December reading to about 102.5. Lynn Franco, director of the consumer research center, said in a statement accompanying the report that despite the reading, "there is little to suggest that the pace of economic activity in the final quarter of 2006 is anything but moderately better than its uninspiring performance earlier this year." She added: "Given the seesaw pattern in recent months, it is too soon to tell if this boost in confidence is a genuine signal that better times are ahead."
25.12.2006 23:32 Russian GDP grew 6,8% in January-October 2006
Russian GDP grew by 8,2% in October, and reached 6.8% in the first ten months of 2007, topping the target of 6,6%, Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref said. Trade has shown the largest growth 14.6%, he said. "Half of the trade growth results from larger retail imports". Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov said that Russian GDP grew 6,8% from January to November this year. "This year, our economic growth can reach 7,0%. This is a rather good index". Industrial production grew 4,1% in January to October 2006 against 3,7% in the same period last year. Investments grew 12,9% in January to November this year and this is the most gratifying figure in our economic development this year.
22.12.2006 20:34 Industrial production down by 0.1% in euro area in October 2006
Seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 0.1% in the euro area in October 2006 compared to September 2006. Production declined by 1.1% in September and rose by 1.6% in August. In the EU25 output fell by 0.1% in October 2006 after a decrease of 0.6% in September and an increase of 1.1% in August. In October 2006 compared to October 2005, industrial production rose by 3.6% in the euro area and by 3.4% in the EU25. The euro area industrial new orders index dropped by 0.6% in October 2006 compared to September 2006. The index fell by 1.4% in September and rose by 3.8% in August. EU25 new orders gained 0.2% in October 2006, after a decrease of 1.0% in September and an increase of 2.7% in August. Excluding ships, railway and aerospace equipment industrial new orders rose by 1.0% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU25 in October 2006. In October 2006 compared to October 2005, industrial new orders increased by 12.5% in both zones. Total industry excluding ships, railway and aerospace equipment grew by 12.6% in the euro area and by 11.2% in the EU25. The first estimate for the euro area trade balance with the rest of the world in October 2006 gave a 2.4 bn euro surplus compared with +0.1 bn in October 2005. The September 20062 balance was +2.1 bn, compared with +1.1 bn in September 2005. In October 2006 compared with September 2006, exports, seasonally adjusted, remained stable, while imports rose by 0.6%. The first estimate for October 2006 extra-EU25 trade was a deficit of 13.2 bn euro, compared with -11.0 bn in October 2005. In September 2006, the balance was also -13.2 bn, compared with -9.6 bn in September 2005. In October 2006 compared with September 2006, exports, seasonally adjusted, fell by 1.2% and imports by 0.4%.
19.12.2006 20:14 The European Commission said recovery in the euro zone was broad-based and sustainable
The European Commission said recovery in the euro zone was broad-based and sustainable, with domestic demand emerging as the mainstay of economic expansion. "The euro area is therefore well placed to face a somewhat less favourable international environment deriving from the US slowdown," - the commission said. The commission said recent developments were consistent with the earlier forecasts putting euro area average growth at 2,6% for 2006, the best performance in 6 years. Looking ahead, the EU executive said some deceleration in growth was expected for 2007, reflecting the effects of an increase in value added tax in Germany and a somewhat less favourable international environment. Gross domestic product will increase 2,1% next year.
17.12.2006 21:27 U.S. November Industrial Production Up 0.2%, Capacity at 81.8%
Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in November, reflecting a jump in auto manufacturing that may not be sustained. The 0.2 percent increase last month followed no change in October, the Federal Reserve said today. Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, held at 81.8 percent for a second month. Economists expected industrial production to be unchanged after rising 0.2 percent in October, according to the median of 67 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Capacity utilization was forecast to rise to 82.1 percent, from 82 percent. Projections for industrial production ranged from a drop of 0.4 percent to a gain of 0.3 percent. Those for capacity utilization ranged from 81.5 percent to 82.4 percent. Manufacturing output, which accounts for about four-fifths of total production, rose 0.3 percent, the most since August, after a 0.5 percent drop in October. Excluding autos, factory production was unchanged, following a 0.3 percent decline.
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