The Lastest Macroeconomic News
17.12.2006 21:27 U.S. November Industrial Production Up 0.2%, Capacity at 81.8%
Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in November, reflecting a jump in auto manufacturing that may not be sustained. The 0.2 percent increase last month followed no change in October, the Federal Reserve said today. Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, held at 81.8 percent for a second month. Economists expected industrial production to be unchanged after rising 0.2 percent in October, according to the median of 67 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Capacity utilization was forecast to rise to 82.1 percent, from 82 percent. Projections for industrial production ranged from a drop of 0.4 percent to a gain of 0.3 percent. Those for capacity utilization ranged from 81.5 percent to 82.4 percent. Manufacturing output, which accounts for about four-fifths of total production, rose 0.3 percent, the most since August, after a 0.5 percent drop in October. Excluding autos, factory production was unchanged, following a 0.3 percent decline.
15.12.2006 19:24 Gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia grew 6.5% on the year in January-September
Gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia grew 6.5% on the year in January-September, the Federal State Statistics Service said this week. Earlier this month the service reported its estimate of GDP growth in July-September, which was also at 6.5%. Russian GDP rose 6.4% on the year in 2005, slowing from 7.1% in 2004, according to the Federal Statistics Service. Inflation in Russia is estimated at 0.5%-0.6% in November, the Economic Development and Trade Ministry said Wednesday. The ministry projects January-November inflation at 8,0%-8.1% against 10% in the same period of last year. The chairman of Central Bank, Sergei Ignatyev, said on November 22 that annual inflation in 2006 will be about 9,0%, in line with the national target inflation level. The economics ministry said consumer prices grew 7.5% in January-October 2006. The ministry also said the foreign trade in the first 10 months of 2006 aggregated $377.8 billion, with a trade surplus of $122.2 billion.
13.12.2006 20:41 Japan GDP grew just 0,2% from the previous quarter and was up 0,8% year-on-year
The Cabinet Office said economy of Japan in the September quarter grew by just a third of the pace seen in the March quarter and was also slower than that in the quarter to June, as private demand contracted for the first time in seven quarters. Citing revised data, it said third quarter GDP grew just 0,2% from the previous quarter, lower than the preliminary estimate of 0,5% growth, and was up 0,8% year-on-year against the initial estimate of an annualized rise of 2,0%. In the preceding quarters, GDP had grown 0,7% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March or at annual rate of 2,7%, and was up 0,3% quarter-on-quarter and up 1,1% year-on-year in the three months to June. The Cabinet Office said private demand subtracted 0,1% from the third-quarter GDP, the first negative contribution since the fourth quarter of 2004.
11.12.2006 20:47 Economists expect slower U.S. growth in the forth quarter 2006
The economy will grow at an annual rate of 2 percent this quarter and will expand at a 2.4 percent pace in the first three months of next year, according to the median forecast of 80 economists surveyed from Dec. 1 through Dec. 8. Both estimates are down from the previous survey. A report this month showed manufacturing contracted for the first time in more than three years in November as automakers trimmed production and inventories piled up, suggesting the economic slowdown is spreading beyond housing. Still, job and income growth will be strong enough to keep consumers spending and the economy growing, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady through March, economists said. The fourth-quarter estimate compares with a 2.5 percent median forecast in November. The forecast of 2.4 percent growth in the first quarter is down from the 2.6 percent forecast last month. Economists trimmed second-quarter forecasts by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 2.5 percent.
09.12.2006 17:30 University of Michigan U.S. Confidence Index Falls to 90.2 in December
The University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment fell to 90.2 from 92.1 in November. The gauge rose to 93.6 in October, the highest since July of last year, and has averaged 88.1 since monthly data were first compiled in 1978. Americans are getting a smaller boost from declining gasoline prices, and the slumping real estate market is making them feel less wealthy, economists said. The Michigan index was expected to fall to 92, according to the median estimate of 62 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The gauge of current conditions, which reflects perceptions of the financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, increased to 108.2 from 106. The expectations index, which some economists view as an indicator of future consumer spending, fell to 78.6 from a November reading of 83.2. The preliminary Michigan sentiment index is based on a telephone survey of about 300 households. The final report for the month, due Dec. 22, will reflect about 500 responses.
08.12.2006 19:36 OECD October composite leading indicator rose to 109.7 from 109.5 in September
The OECD said its composite leading indicator rose to 109.7 in October from a revised 109.5 in September. The September figure was previously given as 109.6. The OECD said analysis of the CLI data points to a weakening of growth in the US and the euro zone in the period ahead, but to improved performance in Japan. For the US, the CLI edged up to 107.7 in October from 107.6 in September, but its six-month rate of change weakened. The CLI for the euro zone rose to 109.4 from 109.1 but its six-month rate of change fell for the fifth month in a row. Meanwhile, the Japan CLI rose to 100.8 from 100.6 and its six-month rate of change improved for the third month in succession. The UK CLI rose to 102.0 from 101.8 and its six-month rate of change improved after being relatively flat since June, the OECD said.
07.12.2006 20:03 Russian GDP will grow 6,8% in 2006 and 6,0% in 2007
Economic Development Ministry of Russia came up with its adjusted outlook. The expectations for GDP growth improved from 6,6% to 6,8%, but the 2007 advance is predicted at no more than 6,0%. The ministry expects the ruble to appreciate to 26,4 to the U.S. dollar by the year-end. Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006 is bound to prove 6,9-7,0%. The World Bank also expects Russian GDP up 7,0% this year. “The fast growth of domestic market continues to stimulate sustainable economic growth in Russia. Significant net capital inflow together with revenues from natural resource exports feed the domestic demand. Under these conditions, starting in the second quarter of current year, acceleration of economic growth rates has taken place. Based on results of the year, GDP growth may reach 7%,” the report noted.
05.12.2006 22:01 US Productivity Rises 0,2% in the third quarter of 2006
Worker productivity grew at the slowest pace of the year last quarter while labor costs were revised down more than expected, easing concern that surging incomes will stoke inflation. Productivity rose at an annual rate of 0,2% in the third quarter after a 1,2% gain the previous three months, said the Labor Department. A measure of labor costs rose at a 2,3% pace and was up 2,9% in the 12 months ended in September, less than first estimated. Economists expected productivity, a measure of how much an employee produces per hour, to rise at 0,5% annual rate for the third quarter, according to the median of 64 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Unit labor costs, which are adjusted for efficiency gains, were projected to rise at a 3,2% pace.
04.12.2006 20:49 China 2006 GDP growth seen at 10,6% in 2006, slowing to 9,5% in 2007
JP Morgan said it has revised up its 2006 GDP growth forecast for China to 10.6 pct, as accelerating exports and strong consumption growth continue to offset a third quarter slowdown in investment. The brokerage said it expects the economy to grow at a solid, but somewhat slower pace of 9.5 pct in 2007, as fixed-asset investment (FAI) and export growth slow modestly, while consumption remains strong. Administrative controls on land use and bank lending are likely to continue next year, while the central bank is expected to increase interest rates only slightly, with hikes in the bank reserve ratio requirement (RRR) seen as the primary means to contain liquidity, JP Morgan said in a note.
03.12.2006 17:45 The Economic Sentiment Indicator in the EU reached 113,1 in November 2006
The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in the EU, produced by the European Commission, continued to rise in November, reaching its highest level since the beginning of 2001, while it remained broadly stable in the Eurozone. The indicator rose by 1.6 points in the EU and decreased by 0.1 point in the Eurozone, to 113.1 and 110.3 respectively. In both areas, sentiment has been on an upward trend since mid-2005. The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the eurozone climbed to an all-time high in November, the European Commission said this week. After leveling off in October, the BCI for the 12 nations sharing the same currency picked up again in November, rebounding from 1.41 to 1.54, the highest level in record.
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