The Lastest Macroeconomic News
18.12.2017 22:27 Global Growth to Soften in 2018
Global growth next year is expected to be 3.5%, just above the average for the post-financial crisis era but slightly down from 3.6% in 2017. The three main factors that drove the acceleration in growth in 2017 are now expected to fade, according to Qatar National Bank report. In 2017, accommodative global monetary policy, sustained high growth in China and lower oil prices kept the wind in the sails of the global economy. In 2018, the positive effects of all of these drivers are likely to soften, QNB noted in its weekly `economic commentary`, Saturday, ThePeninsula.com reported. First, accommodative global monetary policy is likely to be scaled back in 2018, even if inflation does not pick up as expected. Unemployment in a number of major economies is expected to fall below the targeted levels of their central banks. The unemployment rate in advanced economies in 2018 is expected to fall to its lowest rate since 1980. This has already prompted the world`s largest central banks to announce plans to reduce the level of monetary accommodation.
14.12.2017 21:34 Global Economy Set to Grow 3.2 Percent in 2018, IHS Markit Says
The global economy will expand 3.2 percent in 2018, matching the rate of growth achieved in 2017 and marking the first time since 2011 that global growth topped 3 percent, according to an annual forecast released today by business information provider IHS Markit. “The global economy finally broke through the doldrums in 2017 and the stage is set for continued solid growth in 2018,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Markit. “We expect continuing expansion in the U.S. and emerging markets to offset plateauing in the Eurozone and Japan. While economic risks remain, most are low-level threats to the overall picture for 2018.” The global growth forecast is part of Behravesh`s annual Top 10 Economic Predictions, which were announced today.
11.12.2017 23:56 Weapons sales in 2016 exceeded the total GDP of all but 26 of the world`s nations
In 2016 the world`s 100 largest arms manufacturers sold $374.8bn of weapons and military services, according to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The 2016 figure represents a 1.9 percent increase compared with 2015, and is the first year of growth in Top 100 arms sales after five consecutive years of decline. According to the report, sales from US firms rose four percent in 2016 to $217.2bn, accounting for 57.9% of the overall total. Lockheed Martin, the world`s largest arms producer, increased its arms sales by 10.7% to $40.8bn, driven largely by deliveries of its F-35 fighter jet.
08.12.2017 13:16 China`s debt levels pose stability risk, says IMF
Fears that China risks being the cause of a fresh global financial crisis have been highlighted by the International Monetary Fund in a hard-hitting warning about the growing debt-dependency of the world`s second biggest economy. The IMF`s health check of China`s financial system found that credit was high by international levels, that personal debt had increased in the past five years, and that the pressure to maintain the country`s rapid growth had bred an unwillingness to let struggling firms fail. While praising China`s president, Xi Jinping, for his commitment to improving financial security, the IMF said reforms by Beijing in recent years had not gone far enough.
07.12.2017 14:26 IATA: 1% of world GDP to be spent on air transport next year
With rising air passenger numbers, as much as 1 percent of the global GDP - translating into USD 861 billion - is projected to be spent on air transport in 2018, according to IATA. The global airlines grouping also said that economic development worldwide is getting a significant boost from air transport. "New destinations are forecast to rise next year, with frequencies up too; both boosting consumer benefits. We expect 1 percent of world GDP to be spent on air transport in 2018, totalling USD 861 billion," IATA said. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) represents around 275 airlines comprising 83 percent of global air traffic.
04.12.2017 15:12 U.S. helps drive global economy higher
Believe it or not, the U.S. is in its ninth consecutive year of economic expansion. In a healthy economy, gross domestic product, or GDP, growth rate is around 3-3.5 percent. GDP is the total dollar value of goods and services produced by a country and is the key indicator of its economic health. But therein lies the rub. Though the current expansion is the third longest since World War II, it is also the slowest, with an annual rate of growth averaging a paltry 2.1 percent. In 2016, economic growth was 1.5 percent. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate was even lower at just 1.2 percent. But in the past eight months, the U.S. economy has finally gained traction. Led by improvements in consumer spending and a surge in business investment of factories, machinery and equipment, economic growth has averaged 3.05 percent. The national unemployment rate is at 4.1 percent, a 17-year low. The Consumer Confidence Index, a key measure of optimism on the state of the U.S. economy, was just reported at 129.5, reflecting a recent level of consumer optimism not seen since November 2000. The index has a benchmark of 100. Anything above 100 indicates optimism on jobs and income by consumers, who ultimately will spend money and stimulate economic growth.
30.11.2017 22:54 U.S. third-quarter economic growth fastest in three years
The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, notching its quickest pace in three years, buoyed by robust business spending on equipment and an accumulation of inventories. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.3 percent annual rate last quarter also boosted by a rebound in government investment, the Commerce Department said in its second GDP estimate on Wednesday. That was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2014 and a pickup from the second quarter`s 3.1 percent rate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 3.0 percent pace in the July-September period. It was the first time since 2014 that the economy experienced growth of 3 percent or more for two straight quarters. The growth pace, however, likely exaggerates the health of the economy as inventories, goods yet to be sold, accounted for nearly a quarter of GDP growth. Excluding inventory investment, the economy grew at a 2.5 percent rate. When measured from the income side, output also expanded at a 2.5 percent rate.
29.11.2017 12:12 World economy growing faster than in years, but not for long
The world economy is growing faster than it has in seven years and more and more people are working - but the high growth isn`t expected to last long, and wages remain stubbornly stagnant. That`s according to forecasts Tuesday from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which urged governments to do more to ensure longer-term growth and better living standards across the board. The group, which recommends policies for leading economies, predicts sustained growth in the U.S. this year and next and a sharper-than-expected increase in the countries that use the euro currency. For 2019, however, the OECD forecasts “a tempering of growth rather than continued strengthening.” Chief Economist Catherine Mann urged faster re-training of workers amid drastic technological changes, extending retirement ages, investing in renewable energy and simplified tax rules to reduce risks of a new downturn.
27.11.2017 15:34 India on track to become world`s third largest economy
India will emerge as the world`s third largest economy, surpassing Japan by 2028, on the back of rising savings rates, financial maturity and increasing incomes, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said. "We believe India stands out among the large emerging economies as having the best prospects for strong growth over the next decade. In 2028, we estimate it will surpass Japan in nominal GDP terms to emerge as the world`s third-largest economy," said Indranil Sen Gupta, economist at BofA Merrill Lynch. Although India`s GDP size was just $2.3 trillion, a fraction of China`s $11.4 trillion and $18.6 trillion of the US, in 2016, the country could already outpace Japan as the third largest in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms at $8.7 trillion. Global management consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers has forecast that India would outpace the US to emerge as the second largest economy in PPP terms by 2040 to $30 trillion from $8.7 trillion in 2016, while the US will grow from $18.6 trillion to $28.3 trillion.
24.11.2017 12:11 In 2018, the MFI market in Russia will be reduced by 6 times
According to the newspaper Daily, in 2018 there will be a large-scale reduction in the number of MFIs in Russia. Such a trend, according to analysts, can be observed against the background of the destruction of the entire banking system by the actions of the Central Bank. Recall that in 2016, the Central Bank excluded more than a third of participants from the register of microfinance organizations. And this trend has been preserved this year. For example, the day before yesterday eight more MFIs were excluded from the register, and the oldest of them worked on the market for more than 6 years.
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