The Lastest Macroeconomic News
19.12.2018 15:19 The Russian economy grew slightly more than previously reported in the third quarter
Russian statistics agency Rosstat has revised the flash estimate of GDP growth in 3Q18 from previous 1.3% y/y to 1.5% y/y. The accompanying GDP breakdown by industry showed that the financial sector, trade, transportation, and extraction remaining the main growth contributors. Previously the analysts were puzzled by Rosstat revising fixed asset investment (FAI) in the economy to 5.2% y/y for 3Q18 as compared with 2.8% and 3.6% in 2Q18 and 1Q18. "Following the surprising release of FAI growth print, Rosstat has revised its flash estimate of GDP expansion in 3Q18 as well. While in November it posted the 1.3% y/y growth, currently it stands at 1.5%," VTB Capital commented.
11.12.2018 22:27 UN: Money equal to 5% of global GDP are paid in bribes or stolen every year
Trillions of dollars - equivalent to more than five per cent of global GDP - are paid in bribes or stolen through corruption every year, according to the United Nations. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres deemed corruption "an assault on the values of the United Nations," in a message on the International Anti-Corruption Day, which is marked each December 9. He said that "it robs societies of schools, hospitals and other vital services, drives away foreign investment and strips nations of their natural resources, he said. One trillion dollars are paid in bribes annually, while another 2.6 trillion are stolen; all due to corruption. The UN is fighting the global scourge, which affects both rich and poor countries, through initiatives like the global campaign launched jointly by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
07.12.2018 13:19 Meet the 5 Countries That Will Dominate the Global Economy in 2030
Mexico is currently the eleventh-largest economy in the world, and it may surprise. Partially a derivative of its proximity to the U.S. market, and partly due to preferential trade treatment with its northern neighbor, Mexico is the economy to watch. Granted, it is currently well behind Russia and Brazil. But it is more advantaged through NAFTA and, potentially, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Russia is currently isolated, Brazil is mired in a political and economic mess, and both are reliant on commodities for their growth. So, this leaves us primarily with the status quo. The United States, China and India will not be dethroned. And, despite the catch-up by fast-growing economies like Indonesia and Mexico, Japan is likely to remain a top-five economy but Germany will not. Indonesia, and possibly Mexico, will surpass Germany by 2030. The major economies will see little churn, but immediately below there will be plenty of upheaval. The current commodity price sag will cause many previously fast-growing economies to play catch-up over the next decade while rivals benefit. This would mean that four of the top five economies would be located in Asia - food for thought.
29.11.2018 13:09 Russian economy ministry sees rouble weakening gradually in long term
The Russian economy ministry, in a set of forecasts until 2036 released on Wednesday, said it expects the rouble to weaken gradually and economic growth to pick up after 2019. The rouble rate will average 61.7 against the dollar in 2018, 63.9 in 2019 and 75.2 in 2036, the ministry forecasts. The rouble traded at 67.27 against the dollar on Wednesday. Gross domestic product growth is expected to exceed 3.0 percent in 2021, up from 1.8 percent seen this year, the ministry said. The economy ministry also said it forecasts Russia`s oil production will total 549 million tonnes this year, 557 million tonnes in 2019 and 562 million tonnes in 2020. Russia is expected to export 255.7 million tonnes of crude oil in 2018, 257.7 million tonnes in 2019 and 259.2 million tonnes in 2020, the forecast envisages.
20.11.2018 18:51 Russia`s central bank sees year-end inflation close to target of 4 percent
Russia`s central bank expects year-end inflation to be around its target of 4 percent, but the balance of risks may still change ahead of its key rate meeting on Dec. 14, the head of the bank`s research department said on Tuesday. Alexander Morozov said the bank may halt foreign exchange purchases again in 2019 if there are risks to financial stability. The purchases have been on hold since August due to market volatility, and the central bank is due decide next month when and how to resume purchases. Russia`s Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin believes that consumer price inflation in Russia may exceed the forecast of 3.4% in 2018 due to exchange rate fluctuations. "Concerning the approved forecast, the risks are obviously shifted upwards (on inflation)," PRIME cited the minister as saying. "Not very much, but shifted. Our course dynamics are developing above the forecast that was laid in August. There are clear reasons why this is happening – this is connected with global markets, with possible sanctions," the minister added. "The rate in the part that affects inflation has already been largely formed. Even if the forecast for the rate can be fulfilled at the end of the year, it will not have a strong influence on this year`s inflation. Therefore, inflation will be higher than 3.4% that we have in the forecast," Oreshkin concluded.
16.11.2018 17:07 Global GDP growth forecast at 3.1 percent in early 2019
The global economy is projected to expand at more than 3 percent in early 2019, with growth showing signs of peaking especially in the Euro area and emerging markets, a US research organization said. The world`s economic growth, which stands at 3.2 percent for 2018, will be slightly down to 3.1 percent in 2019, according to the latest Global Economic Outlook of the New York-based Conference Board. “The global economy will remain strong through the next half year – with no signs of a downturn – assuming there are no major policy disruptions such as a widespread escalation in tariffs on trade,” said Bart van Ark, chief economist of the Conference Board. “But business cycles are maturing in most economies and growth rates are gradually reverting to slower trends in the medium-term,” he said, adding that the slower growth of labor supply and modest projections of productivity growth are the main concerns.
06.11.2018 21:42 US job openings dip but still exceed number of unemployed
The number of jobs posted by U.S. employers declined slightly in September but still exceeded the number of unemployed Americans and remained near a two-decade high. The report Tuesday from the Labor Department provided the latest evidence that many U.S. companies are straining to fill jobs in the face of a robust job market with low unemployment. The department said job openings declined 4 percent to roughly 7 million, still close to the highest levels on records dating to December 2000. The number of openings far exceeded the roughly 6 million people who were unemployed in September. The number of available jobs, in fact, has topped the number of unemployed for six straight months. Steadily strong hiring has lowered the U.S. unemployment rate to a nearly five-decade low of 3.7 percent.
27.10.2018 17:43 U.S. GDP Grew by 3.5 Percent in Third Quarter
The U.S. economy grew at a robust annual rate of 3.5 percent in the July-September quarter as the strongest burst of consumer spending in nearly four years helped offset a sharp drag from trade. The Commerce Department said Friday that the third quarter`s gross domestic product, the country`s total output of goods and services, followed an even stronger 4.2 percent rate of growth in the second quarter. The two quarters marked the strongest consecutive quarters of growth since 2014. The result was slightly higher than many economists had been projecting. It was certain to be cited by President Donald Trump as evidence his economic policies are working. But some private economists worry that the recent stock market declines could be a warning signal of a coming slowdown.
24.10.2018 15:14 Russia`s industrial output growth slows
Russia`s industrial output growth continued to slow down in September 2018 to 2.1% year-on-year from 2.7% seen in August and 3.9% in July, the latest data by Rosstat statistics agency shows. The industrial growth for 3Q18 slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.2% in 2Q18, amounting to 3% y/y in January-September 2018. The growth in September was largely supported by expanding extraction. "Significant improvements can be seen in the output of crude oil, which expanded on the decision by Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase volumes in September-December," VTB Capital commented. Mining and quarrying output growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y, driven by faster growth in oil production that increased to 4.9% y/y. At the same time manufacturing output shrank by 0.1% y/y in September compared with 2.2% y/y growth the month before, showing negative dynamics for the first time since December 2017. Manufacturing was still up 2.2% y/y in 3Q18 and 3.3% y/y in January-September.
17.10.2018 16:15 BAML poll: Investors gloomiest on world growth since 2008 financial crisis
Global investors have the most pessimistic outlook on the world economy since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch`s monthly survey, which also showed a sharp fall in US equity allocations. The survey, released on Tuesday was conducted Oct. 5 to 11 and canvassed investors managing $646 billion. It showed investors remained overweight equities overall, though the 22 percent overweight was just marginally off the recent record low of 19 percent. But in a sign of caution, they held cash at 5.1 percent -- a net 36 percent overweight -- and well above than the 4.5 percent 10-year average. The poll showed that a net 38 percent of respondents expected the global economy to slow, the worst outlook on global growth since November 2008. A net 35 percent of participants identified trade war as the biggest risk. Investors were also gloomy on corporate earnings, with a fifth of respondents expecting global profits to deteriorate in the coming year, BAML said, noting that in January a net 39 percent of investors had predicted an improvement.