The Lastest Macroeconomic News
14.10.2017 16:43 Emerging Markets Will Be Key Drivers of Global Growth
The market already knew, but the International Monetary Fund confirmed it last week: Global growth is on track and many developing countries are fueling the economic expansion. The IMF expects global growth of 3.6% in 2017, and 3.7% in 2018, a very slight upward revision from its July forecast. For developing economies, the IMF maintained its 4.6% GDP growth estimate for 2017, but raised it by a tenth of a point to 4.9% for 2018. The IMF`s assumptions are, in general, good for emerging markets. Those include generally higher commodity prices next year, but a relatively flat $50-per-barrel oil price this year and next. The IMF also assumes a gradual normalization of the policy interest rate in the U.S., a slightly weaker U.S. dollar, and no U.S. tax cuts - to President Donald Trump`s consternation. The report notes risks to the rosy outlook, including debt, a shift by central banks away from monetary stimulus, and weak profitability at a third of the world`s systemically important banks, which represent $17 trillion in assets.
14.10.2017 00:50 IMF raises China 2017 growth forecast due to its progress in economic reform
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)`s move to raise its forecast for China`s economic growth to 6.8 percent reflects the country`s recent progress in trimming financial risks and deepening economic reform, US experts have said. In its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, the IMF expected the Chinese economy to grow 6.8 percent this year and 6.5 percent next year, both 0.1 percentage point higher than its previous forecast in July. “The growth rate is wonderful compared to the growth of many other countries,” Farok Contractor, a distinguished professor at Rutgers Business School, told Xinhua on Tuesday. “Of course it has come down from the previous eight or ten percent, but that is still a very healthy growth rate and that should be the envy of any other country in the world,” he said. According to IMF, the upward revision to the 2017 forecast reflects “the stronger-than-expected outturn in the first half of the year underpinned by previous policy easing and supply-side reforms.”
12.10.2017 22:26 IMF forecasts economic recovery for Middle East economies in 2018
Economic growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (Menap) is likely to rebound in 2018 after losing momentum this year, weighed down by geopolitical risks and a slowdown in Iran`s economy, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Overall Menap growth is projected to rise to 3.5 per cent in 2017 from 2.6 per cent this year, the Washington-based IMF said in its world economic outlook report on Tuesday. The region`s 2018 prospects are just below that of the world economy as a whole, which is forecast to grow by 3.7 per cent next year, and far ahead of the average for advanced economies, which are predicted to grow by just 2 per cent. The UAE`s economy, which is more developed and diversified than most others in the Menap region, is expected to grow 3.4 per cent in 2018, up from 1.7 per cent this year. "In 2018, [Menap] growth is expected to increase to 3.5 per cent, mostly reflecting stronger domestic demand in oil importers and a rebound of oil production in oil exporters," the IMF said, adding that regional insecurity and geopolitical risks still weigh on the outlook.
11.10.2017 15:27 Russian Economic Growth Picks Up At End Of Q3
As the Russian economy continues to recover from recession, solid growth in the manufacturing and service sectors point to the emergence of stronger demand. Relatively muted inflation and falling interest rates, however, may be themes that continue throughout 2017. Russian firms have seen a solid progression throughout 2017 so far, with both manufacturers and service providers indicating a sustained recovery in operating conditions. The IHS Markit Composite PMI Output Index suggests that the Russian economy is on course for the best year since 2007. The latest PMI data signaled a sixth successive quarter of growth, the longest sequence of expansion since late-2013. Official GDP data signaled solid year-on-year growth of 2.5% in the second quarter, with the Composite PMI suggesting another robust performance in the third quarter. The PMI does not include construction and retail, however, and weak performances in these sectors have caused a drag on overall figures in the past. In 2016, PMI component sectors signaled GDP growth of 0.8%. This signaled stronger underlying GDP than was suggested by the final official data, which indicated a 0.4% contraction.
08.10.2017 13:07 No miracles: labor shortage set to hit Russia`s GDP
A dearth of young people joining Russia`s workforce because of a low birth rate will shave several percent off potential economic growth in the next five to six years, Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said. In an interview at the Reuters Russian Investment summit, he said the labor shortage made it hard for technology companies, among others, to recruit staff they need -- hurting a sector the government has identified as vital to reviving economic growth. Russia`s birth rate hit a low in 1999 after living standards fell following the Soviet Union`s collapse. The impact is being felt now as people born at that time reach school-leaving age. “In countries with a normal demographic pyramid, a new generation comes in with modern skills and takes up jobs in a modern economy and modern industries, and with their arrival the labor market changes in favor of new sectors,” he said. In Russia`s case, Oreshkin said, this was not happening. “This is a very serious thing. The process is going to continue for five to six years,” he said.
06.10.2017 14:57 World Bank ups forecast for China`s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018
The World Bank on Wednesday raised China`s growth forecast for 2017 and 2018, citing an improved external environment and strong domestic demand. The bank now expects China`s economy to expand by 6.7 percent in 2017, up from an April projection of 6.5 percent and, for 2018, 6.4 percent instead of 6.3 percent. "(China`s) GDP growth is revised upward in 2017 in light of better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year," the World Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update. China`s economy grew at 6.9 percent in the first half. The updated projection is part of a broader forecast for the region to grow 6.4 percent in 2017 and 6.2 percent in 2018, compared with the previously forecast 6.2 percent in 2017 and 6.1 percent in 2018. As more efforts are made to rebalance away from investment and external demand toward domestic consumption, China`s growth is projected to moderate in 2018-2019 but remain higher than many economies in the region, it said.
04.10.2017 11:56 World Bank raises 2017, 2018 East Asia growth forecasts, sees geopolitical risks
The World Bank raised its economic growth forecasts for developing East Asia and Pacific for this year and 2018, but added the generally positive outlook was clouded by risks such as rising trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions. The Washington-based lender now expects the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which includes China, to grow 6.4 percent in 2017 and 6.2 percent in 2018. Its previous forecast in April was for 6.2 percent growth in 2017 and 6.1 percent growth in 2018. "The economic outlook for the region remains positive and will benefit from an improved external environment as well as strong domestic demand," the World Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report on Wednesday.
01.10.2017 17:51 Morgan Stanley: India likely to be third largest economy in 10 years
India is expected to be a USD 6 trillion economy — the third largest in the world — in the next 10 years, majorly helped by digitisation, says a report. According to global brokerage Morgan Stanley, India`s digitisation drive would provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth in the coming decade. “We estimate that digitisation will provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth and forecast that India will grow to USD 6 trillion economy and achieve upper-middle income status by by 2026-27,” Morgan Stanley head India research and India equity strategist Ridham Desai told reporters here. “We expect India`s real and nominal GDP growth to compound annually by 7.1 per cent and 11.2 per cent respectively over the coming decade,” he added.
29.09.2017 13:26 Global economy at risk a decade on from financial crisis, says WEF
The 10th anniversary of the worst downturn since the Great Depression finds the global economy at risk of a fresh crisis and ill-prepared for the disruption likely from the robot age, the World Economic Forum has warned. The body that organises the annual gathering of the global elite in Davos each January used its annual league table of competitiveness to stress that the failure to push through growth and productivity-friendly policies since the crash of 2007-08 had jeopardised chances of a sustained recovery. WEF sources said recent Bank of England concerns about a potential consumer debt crisis were timely since there was evidence that the global banking system was less sound than before the financial crisis and that conditions were deteriorating in some parts of the world. Last month, the International Monetary Fund warned of a “dangerous” growth in China`s debt. The WEF said there was also a need to combine labour market flexibility with enhanced rights for workers, with countries that had managed to do so enjoying higher employment and lower levels of inequality. Zero-hours contracts were a “sticking plaster” rather than a long-term solution, it added.
26.09.2017 13:23 OECD: the global economy will grow by 3.5% this year and 3.7% in 2018
The world economy has picked up momentum, as expanding investment, employment and trade support synchronized growth across most countries, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development`s latest Interim Economic Outlook. The OECD projects that the global economy will grow by 3.5% this year and 3.7% in 2018, with industrial production and trade picking up and further acceleration in the rebound of technology spending. The projections reflect modest improvements in the global economy since the previous Economic Outlook in June 2017. According to the outlook, the recovery of business investment and trade remain too low to sustain healthy productivity growth, while wage growth has been disappointing on average, and not equitable across workers. Emerging markets are key for overall global growth, and strong future growth depends on deeper reforms.
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