The Lastest Macroeconomic News
25.04.2017 14:13 Can India replace China as driver of world GDP growth over next 20 years?
The share of emerging and developing markets in world gross domestic product (GDP) has improved from 42.3% in 1996 to 58.1% in 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund`s latest World Economic Outlook database. (The share of global output has been computed by taking GDP on a purchasing power parity basis). This increase in share is a remarkable achievement and seems to be a ringing endorsement of the benefits of opening up the economy and of globalization. It`s a rise of 15.8 percentage points in the share of global output in the last 20 years. These years have been the heyday of globalization, which has led to a spurt in the growth of developing economies. But the story gets much more nuanced. If we disaggregate the numbers, we find that China`s share of world output has gone up from 6.3% in 1996 to 17.8% in 2016. In other words, the lion`s share, or 11.5 percentage points out of the 15.8 percentage point increase in the share of developing economies is due to the extraordinary growth of China alone. That means China contributed as much as 72.8% of the growth in the share of developing economies in world GDP in the last two decades. Remove China from the picture and the performance of the other developing economies gets toned down considerably.
23.04.2017 14:38 Russia and Saudi Arabia could face economic and political consequences if the oil-production deal isn`t extended
The world`s major oil producing countries - including some non-OPEC states - struck a deal in November to cut production with the hope of ending the global glut that has kept prices depressed for over two years. That six-month deal is about to expire and investors are trying to parse whether it`ll be extended amid perennial geopolitical tensions and overlapping strategic market interests. Saudi Arabia`s oil minister Khalid al-Falih suggested at an oil conference on Thursday that production cuts may need to continue, and said "there is an intitial agreement that we might be obligated to extend to get to our target." Given that the economic and political stresses major oil producers Russia and Saudi Arabia face at home - that could be exacerbated by another dip in oil prices - they`re likely to go along with it, says Helima Croft, Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
20.04.2017 00:39 IMF Expects Global Economy to Grow 3.5% in 2017
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday revised its forecast for global economic growth in 2017 upward by one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.5 percent but left its 3.6 percent forecast for 2018 unchanged, and warned of the risks of “isolationist policies” among advanced economies. The IMF`s “World Economic Outlook” highlights as major contributors to the upward revision – which sees global gross domestic product (GDP) growth rising four-tenths of a point above the 3.1 percent figure in 2016 - improved economic conditions in China and the US, the latter as a result of President Donald Trump`s promised fiscal expansion. The report projects 6.6 percent GDP growth this year in China and 2.3 percent GDP growth in 2017 followed by 2.5 percent growth in 2018 in the US. The US estimates are the same as in the January forecast, but they are one-tenth and four-tenths of a point, respectively, above the IMF`s October 2016 forecast.
18.04.2017 10:12 FIFA losses hit $369M in 2016; targeting $1B profit for 2018
FIFA finances showed a loss of $369 million last year as American and Swiss corruption investigations added legal costs to the soccer body`s budget and scared off sponsors. An even bigger loss is expected next year, FIFA said Friday after publishing its 2016 accounts, which reflect a new way of reporting income. FIFA expects to rebound with $1 billion in profit in the accounts for 2018, which will include income from most TV broadcast deals for the World Cup in Russia. Still, the scandal-hit soccer body`s confidence will be tested with 24 slots currently unsold in a 34-sponsor program for a World Cup that kicks off in only 14 months. “However, it goes without saying that stagnant global trade and subdued investment, combined with investigations surrounding previous FIFA officials, have put pressure on the organization`s overall revenue generation,” FIFA said in the 116-page financial report for 2016.
17.04.2017 11:12 Russian economic crisis far from over, experts say
It is early to say that the economic crisis in Russia is over, according to economists. Tatiana Isachenko, professor at MGIMO University in Moscow, told Anadolu Agency on Friday that she did not believe the Russian economy emerged from the crisis, and the country was trying to get through the crisis with its savings from the pre-crisis period. "However, we are spending our savings quickly and cannot create such components to substitute those savings," she said. Isachenko noted that the issue of carrying out necessary structural reforms was still ambiguous, therefore Russian President Vladimir Putin`s economy team had to change its strategy in the near future. "Russian industry needs foreign direct investments. Nevertheless it cannot be accomplished due to political reasons," she said, adding unless the sanctions are lifted, "we cannot achieve a remarkable success, even if we improve our relations with the EU and China".
15.04.2017 14:17 Trade Recovery Expected in 2017 and 2018
Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to rebound this year from its tepid performance in 2016, but only if the global economy recovers as expected and governments pursue the right policy mix. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is forecasting that global trade will expand by 2.4 percent in 2017. However, as deep uncertainty about near-term economic and policy developments raise the forecast risk, this figure is placed within a range of 1.8 percent to 3.6 percent. In 2018, the WTO is forecasting trade growth between 2.1 percent and four percent. The unpredictable direction of the global economy in the near term and the lack of clarity about government action on monetary, fiscal and trade policies raises the risk that trade activity will be stifled. A spike in inflation leading to higher interest rates, tighter fiscal policies and the imposition of measures to curtail trade could all undermine higher trade growth over the next two years.
14.04.2017 10:41 Russia`s economy needs a recipe for growth
The Russian economy has hauled itself out of the recession – Rosstat, Russia`s statistics agency, the Economy Ministry, and the Central Bank all think so. Economic decline began in the first quarter of 2015 and according to Rosstat, continued for seven consecutive quarters. It`s a shared approach that a recession generally ends after economic growth is recorded for two consecutive quarters. That`s why, considering the fairly poor results registered during the first two months of this year, it`s still too early to affirm with confidence just how well the economy is recovering. However, there are no reliable grounds to show that Russia`s economic decline is continuing. The most fitting description would be “stagnation.
12.04.2017 20:43 OPEC Revises 2017 World GDP Growth Up to 3.3% Amid Rebalancing Oil Market
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries` (OPEC) forecast for global economic growth this year was revised upwards by 0.1 percent to 3.3 percent because of a more balanced oil market, the cartel said Wednesday in a report. "The momentum in global economic growth has been improving resulting in an upward revision in the 2017 forecast to now stand at 3.3% from 3.2% previously, while growth for 2016 remains at 3.0%… This upward revision is also supported by a more balanced oil market, a key factor buttressing output levels in oilproducing nations and leading to rising investments in the energy sector," the cartel`s March report read. The more balanced oil market has also helped to lift inflation to healthier levels, provide support to central banks to normalise interest rates and boost world trade in volume and value, according to OPEC.
10.04.2017 22:06 India`s share in global economy estimated at about 2.83%
India`s share in the global economy is about 2.83 per cent, with its gross domestic product (GDP) estimated at $2. 095 trillion (at 2015 price of the dollar) against the world GDP of $74 trillion, according to the World Bank Group. According to the World Bank Group, assuming a simple linear extrapolation of growth rates and assuming India`s GDP grows at 8 per cent in US dollar terms, and assuming that France and the UK grow at 2.5 per cent in US dollar terms, India`s contribution to the global economy may surpass that of France in 2018 and that of the United Kingdom in 2021. World Bank has used the GDP at purchaser prices, which is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It has been calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
08.04.2017 18:27 Russian markets fall as Syria strike dashes hopes of thaw with West
The Russian currency and stock markets fell on Friday as American military action in Syria dashed hopes for a better relationship between Washington and Moscow. President Trump launched a military strike on a Syrian government airbase overnight in response to a chemical attack on civilians earlier this week. Russia denounced the attack, promised to bolster Syrian air defenses, and sent a warship to the Mediterranean. The Russian ruble fell 1% against the U.S. dollar, while the main Russian stock market index dropped 1.8%, despite gains in the price of oil -- the foundation of the Russian economy.
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