The Lastest Macroeconomic News
16.01.2018 18:45 Russian economy suddenly shrinks in November
Russia`s economy unexpectedly contracted in November, hit by a drop in industrial production, the economy ministry said on Monday. Gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent year on year in November, the economy ministry said, contrasting with analysts` consensus call for a 1.5 percent growth. Russia`s oil-dependent economy was on the mend in 2017 after two years of recession, triggered by a sharp drop in global commodity prices as well as sanctions imposed by Western countries against Moscow for its role in the Ukrainian crisis. In November, GDP was dragged down by the industrial sector where output contracted 3.6 percent compared with a year ago.
13.01.2018 20:42 World Bank forecast broad-based recovery for global economy
World Bank on Tuesday raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2018 to 3.1 percent, saying that a broad-based recovery was underway across the world. The forecast was 0.2 percentage point higher than its projections in June last year, said the Washington-based lender in its flagship Global Economic Prospects report. "2018 is on track to be the first year since the financial crisis that the global economy will be operating at or near full capacity," said the lender. It estimated that the global growth reached 3 percent in 2017, the strongest pace since 2011 and a notable recovery from a post-crisis low of 2.4 percent in 2016. Growth increased in more than half of the world`s economies in 2017, highlighting the broad-based nature of the recovery, said the lender. It expected the global growth to slow to 3 percent in 2019 from 3.1 percent in 2018 and further down to 2.9 percent in 2020. According to its forecast, growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate slightly to 2.2 percent in 2018 from 2.3 percent in 2017, because major central banks are likely to gradually withdraw from accommodative monetary policies. With stronger private investment, U.S. economy is estimated to grow 2.3 percent in 2017. The growth is expected to accelerate to 2.5 percent in 2018 and then moderate to an average of 2.1 percent in 2019 and 2020.
09.01.2018 19:47 CICC raises China growth forecast to 7 pct for 2018
A leading Chinese investment firm raised its forecast for China`s economic growth in 2018, citing stronger external demand and strength in consumption and manufacturing investment. The China International Capital Corp. (CICC) raised its forecast for China`s 2018 real GDP growth to 7 percent year on year, up from a previous estimate of 6.9 percent, according to a report from the company. An expected tax cut in the United States will boost external demand for China, contributing to faster export growth, according to Liang Hong, chief economist with the CICC. Stronger-than-expected external demand growth in 2018 will add to the inflationary pressure, and the consumer price index is predicted to rise 2.6 percent year on year in 2018, up from 2.5 percent in the previous estimate, according to the report.
05.01.2018 22:08 Australian economy is on the up, set to overtake Russia`s
In the next few years the Australian economy will become larger than Russia`s in US-dollar terms. And yes, you read that right. The latest World Economic League Table, published by influential British consultancy the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), predicts a stunning divergence in the the two nation`s fortunes. For some strange reason, CEBR chose to release its latest league table on boxing day, meaning it received little attention from most media outlets. But there it is in black-and-white. By 2026, Australia will have the 11th largest economy, up from 13th today, and Russia will be tumbling back the other way - from a current 11th place to 17th by 2032.
31.12.2017 14:21 Chinese cities` GDP swell by 2035 but can`t beat NY, Tokyo, London
China`s four economic centers, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Tianjin, will be among the world`s 10 largest cities in terms of gross domestic product by 2035, but they will still trail New York, Tokyo and London, according to the latest forecast by Oxford Economics. The U.K. research company with links to Oxford University examined how 780 large cities in the world -- which account for 35% of the world population and 59% of global GDP in 2016 -- will change in terms of economic growth by 2035. The aggregate GDP of the 780 cities is expected to increase at an average of 2.9% annually. "Many of today`s emerging market cities, particularly in Asia, will continue to progress along the development path and the balance of urban economic power will shift further east," the report summarized. China is likely to be the growth center over the period. Shanghai will climb five positions to 5th, topping Paris, while Beijing will go up nine places to 6th in 2035. Guangzhou and Tianjin will also jump to 8th and 10th position from 22nd and 27th in 2016, respectively.
28.12.2017 15:51 World`s Richest Accumulated US$1 Trillion in 2017
World`s richest people nearly quadrupled their wealth reaching US$1 trillion in 2017, as the soaring stock markets aided the process, a new report indicates. Per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Amazon`s founder, Jeff Bezos added the most, US$34.2 billion this year replacing the richest person, Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates as world`s richest person in October, raising his "net worth" to US$99.6bn. Facebook Inc. co-founder Mark Zuckerberg gained US$22.6 billion, a 45 percent hike. He also announced plans to sell 18 percent of his stake in the giant, as part of his philanthropy project, as he intends to give away a majority of nearly US$72.6 billion fortune. Together, the world`s five richest people – Bezos, Gates, Buffett, Amancio Ortega, the owner of Zara, and Facebook`s Zuckerberg – hold US$425bn of assets, an amount equal to one-sixth of the UK`s GDP.
25.12.2017 19:04 India GDP to Grow 7.5% in 2018
Indian economy is expected to witness sharp recovery in the January-March quarter and its GDP growth likely to be around 7.5% for 2018, a report said. According to Japanese financial services major Nomura`s Composite Leading Index, some growth consolidation is likely in the Q4 (October-December), followed by a sharp recovery in Q1 (January-March) 2018 due to ongoing remonetization and improving global demand, PTI reported. "We remain bullish on the growth outlook. We expect GDP growth to rise to 6.7% year-on-year in Q4 from 6.3% in Q3, followed by a stronger rebound to 7.5% in 2018," Nomura said in a research note. The report further noted that a tightening of monetary policy is likely owing to inflationary pressures and higher oil prices. Moreover, the minutes of the December 6 monetary policy committee meeting suggest that even as most members saw upside risks to inflation, weak growth concerns have held them back.
22.12.2017 14:29 The World Economy in 2018
All major macroeconomic indicators – growth, unemployment, and inflation – suggest that 2017 will be the American economy`s best year in a decade. And the global economy is enjoying broad, synchronized growth beyond what anyone expected. The question now is whether this strong performance will continue in 2018. The answer, of course, will depend on monetary, fiscal, trade, and related policies in the United States and around the world. And yet it is hard to predict what policy proposals will emerge in 2018. There are relatively new heads of state in the US, France, and the United Kingdom; German leaders still have not formed a governing coalition since the general election in September; and the US Federal Reserve has a new chair awaiting confirmation. Moreover, major changes in important developing economies such as Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil have made the future outlook even murkier. Still, we should hope for the best.
18.12.2017 22:27 Global Growth to Soften in 2018
Global growth next year is expected to be 3.5%, just above the average for the post-financial crisis era but slightly down from 3.6% in 2017. The three main factors that drove the acceleration in growth in 2017 are now expected to fade, according to Qatar National Bank report. In 2017, accommodative global monetary policy, sustained high growth in China and lower oil prices kept the wind in the sails of the global economy. In 2018, the positive effects of all of these drivers are likely to soften, QNB noted in its weekly `economic commentary`, Saturday, ThePeninsula.com reported. First, accommodative global monetary policy is likely to be scaled back in 2018, even if inflation does not pick up as expected. Unemployment in a number of major economies is expected to fall below the targeted levels of their central banks. The unemployment rate in advanced economies in 2018 is expected to fall to its lowest rate since 1980. This has already prompted the world`s largest central banks to announce plans to reduce the level of monetary accommodation.
14.12.2017 21:34 Global Economy Set to Grow 3.2 Percent in 2018, IHS Markit Says
The global economy will expand 3.2 percent in 2018, matching the rate of growth achieved in 2017 and marking the first time since 2011 that global growth topped 3 percent, according to an annual forecast released today by business information provider IHS Markit. “The global economy finally broke through the doldrums in 2017 and the stage is set for continued solid growth in 2018,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Markit. “We expect continuing expansion in the U.S. and emerging markets to offset plateauing in the Eurozone and Japan. While economic risks remain, most are low-level threats to the overall picture for 2018.” The global growth forecast is part of Behravesh`s annual Top 10 Economic Predictions, which were announced today.