The Lastest Macroeconomic News
15.06.2018 16:39 Global GDP Growth Forecast at 3.2 Percent
The global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3.2% growth rate in 2018, Conference Board, the New York-based economic research association, said in its latest Global Economic Outlook 2018. The forecast is slightly down from the association`s February prediction of 3.3%. A modest dip in global growth momentum is primarily driven by a maturing business cycle in the eurozone and a slightly weaker growth outlook in emerging markets, driven by US dollar appreciation and rising interest rates, as well as more challenging economic conditions in Brazil, Russia and Turkey, the report said. Momentum in mature economies improved last year and will continue growing at about the same pace through 2018. Mature economies are expected to grow by 2.4% in 2018, unchanged from 2017, the report said.
06.06.2018 16:02 Man-made risks forecast to cost world`s cities $320bn each year on average
Man-made risks like cyber-crime, interstate conflicts or market crashes are a bigger threat to economic output than natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and volcanoes, putting an estimated $320.1 billion of global GDP at risk on average each year, according to Lloyd`s, the world`s specialist insurance and reinsurance market. The Lloyd`s City Risk Index, built in collaboration with Cambridge University, is a unique study measuring the impact of 22 threats on 279 cities` projected economic output. The index reveals that 279 cities across the world – the key engines of global economic growth with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $35.4 trillion – risk losing on average $546.5bn in economic output annually from all 22 threats. This comprises $320.1bn to man-made risks and $226.4bn to natural catastrophes.
01.06.2018 14:51 India`s economic growth jumps to 7.7% in the quarter ended March
The world`s fastest growing major economy is getting even hotter. India`s gross domestic product grew by 7.7% in the quarter ended March, the government said Thursday. That`s a big jump from the revised 7% growth rate recorded the previous quarter. It also means India continues to grow faster than China, which posted growth of 6.8% in the first quarter of 2018. "Rapid growth in agriculture (4.5%), manufacturing (9.1%) and construction sectors (11.5%) contributed to the overall growth," the Indian government said. Growth for the 2017-2018 financial year as a whole came in at 6.7%, according to provisional figures.
24.05.2018 19:43 World Bank lowers economic forecast of Russia
The World Bank has lowered forecast for economic growth in Russia in 2018 to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent earlier. The organization warned that Russia might face more years of modest economic prospects but said these forecasts could change because of change in the price of oil. Crude oil prices have been on a rising note recently, oil prices went up to their highest prices since 2014, due to several measures were taken by OPEC and other oil producing countries to curb supplies. Referring to the Russian economy, the World Bank said, “Relatively high oil prices, continued momentum in the global economic growth and macro stabilization would support growth.” Russia recently, launched Akademik Lomonosov, the world`s first floating nuclear power plant, at a ceremony in the port of the far northern city of Murmansk where it will be loaded with nuclear fuel before heading to eastern Siberia.
20.05.2018 14:46 Russia GDP Growth Looks Weak, But Not Terrible
The weaker than expected GDP numbers keep the central bank easing story in 2018 intact, but the interest rate path will be data-dependent. The flash GDP growth estimate of 1.3% in 1Q18 undershot consensus expectations of 1.5% and our optimistic forecast of 1.8%. However, it was somewhat better than the preliminary Ministry of Economy (MinEco) estimate of 1.1% and was also a modest improvement from 0.9% observed in 4Q17. The key components breakdown is unavailable right now, but we know that negative performance in construction, wholesale and some sub-sectors in the industry resulted in weaker 1Q reading in March than was originally expected in early 2018. The Ministry has recently said it would cut its 2018 growth forecast from the current 2.1% despite a higher oil price assumption.
17.05.2018 19:32 Will $100 Oil Kill The U.S. Economy?
Brent is nearing $80 per barrel and some analyst see $100 not far off. That raises the question about how much of a dent high oil prices will make in the U.S. economy. $100 oil is not as painful as it once was. There are a few reasons for that. The U.S. is now a significant oil exporter, helping to lessen the damage to its trade balance. Also, the economy uses less energy per unit of GDP than it used to, becoming slightly more efficient with each passing year. In the past, high oil prices dragged down the U.S. economy, acting as a tax that redistributed wealth from the U.S. to oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, for example. But, the shale revolution has allowed the U.S. to become one of the largest oil producers in the world, and more recently, an exporter of more than 2 million barrels per day (depending on the week). Now, to a large extent, higher oil prices redistribute wealth within the U.S., still damaging the vast majority of motorists, but benefitting a variety of industries related to the oil industry.
13.05.2018 17:03 Debt Paradox Means Russia Borrows More Even as Oil Prices Rally
Oil prices near the highest level in over three years are driving the world`s biggest energy exporter deeper into debt. While Russia stands to reap a windfall from crude`s recent rally, with the budget now on track for its first surplus since 2011, a program of foreign-currency purchases by the Finance Ministry means that it needs more rubles to conduct the operations when the exchange rate appreciates thanks to higher oil prices. Instead of quenching the government`s financing needs, the result is that borrowing in rubles will actually rise close to last year`s record level to absorb the extra dollars in line with the so-called budget rule. “The budget rule made sovereign-debt issuance a function of the exchange rate,” said Anatoliy Shal, analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Moscow. “Budget amendments are based on a higher oil assumption and imply a stronger ruble, hence the upward revision to issuance plans.”
10.05.2018 23:37 China-Russia trade up 30% in Jan-Apr, set to exceed $100b in 2018
Bilateral trade between China and Russia expanded quickly in the first four months of 2018, and the volume is expected to exceed $100 billion by the end of the year, a senior Chinese trade official said on Thursday. According to recent customs data, Sino-Russian trade grew 30 percent year-on-year to $31.2 billion between January and April. "The Russian economy is steadily turning for the better and its market demand is rising, driving China`s exports to the country up 21 percent on a yearly basis during the January to April period," Gao Feng, spokesperson for China`s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), told a press conference held in Beijing. The increase in imports of bulk commodities from Russia is another favorable factor, Gao said. From January to April, Russia`s exports of crude oil through a pipeline running to China reached 12.4 million tons, an increase of 47 percent compared to the same period in 2017, and Russia has been China`s largest supplier of crude oil in the past few months, Gao noted, citing data released by the Russian authorities.
07.05.2018 16:00 European economy loses thrust in risk for global expansion
Europe`s economy lost momentum in the first quarter as expansions slowed from France to the UK, threatening to undermine the global growth the continent previously helped power. Figures from across the region pointed to a softer trend in the early part of the year, and US first-quarter data also showed activity weakening. The world`s largest economy grew an annualised 2.3 per cent, a step down from the pace seen through 2017. The latest numbers in Europe included a slump in French economic growth and a stabilisation in Euro-area sentiment after three straight declines. In the UK, the economy came to a near halt, putting in its worst performance in more than five years. While the slowdown is partly due to storms that ripped through the region, and most officials have played it down, the European Central Bank acknowledged the shift on Thursday. If it persists, it could increase caution among policymakers about plans to pare back stimulus this year. A similar story has emerged in the UK, where the weak data prompted investors to slash bets on an interest-rate increase in May, something once seen as a near certainty.
03.05.2018 22:57 Russia`s Economic Recovery
According to official figures, Russia`s economy experienced a minor but surprising contraction in November. The country`s Ministry of Economic Development observed that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.3 percent from November 2016 levels, which stands in stark contrast to the 1.5-percent growth that was being predicted by economists. Weak industrial output, which fell by 3.6 percent on an annual basis, was held chiefly responsible for the disappointing performance. The economic ministry blames the weakness in the industrial sector on the agreement Russia made with OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) to curb its crude production in order to bolster commodity prices, as well as the warmer-than-usual weather that weighed on both domestic and foreign demand for natural gas. As such, the ministry has revised its 2017 growth figures for the Russian economy; whereas previously GDP was predicted to have grown by 2.2 percent during the year, now, according to first estimates, this figure was only 1.5 percent. This is not the best indicator, given that GDP growth in the second and third quarters was respectively fixed at 2.5 percent and 1.8 percent - a far cry from the quagmire Russia`s economy was in just one year earlier.