The Lastest Macroeconomic News
30.01.2023 18:48 The state of the Russian economy in 2022 turned out to be significantly better than forecasts
Russia`s GDP fell just 2.5 percent in 2022, a far cry from the 30 percent drop that leading analysts warned about at the beginning of the year. Estimates by international organizations are just around the corner: the IMF, the World Bank and the OECD estimate the decline in Russia`s GDP in 2022 in the range of 3.4% to 4.5% of GDP. Thus, things in the Russian economy turned out to be much better than expected.
27.12.2022 18:43 Apocalypse 2050: World on course for 15% GDP fall
The world is set to see global GDP plummet by a catastrophic 15% by 2050 if current emissions trends are not reined in and global warming reaches 2.2°C by 2050. Oxford Economics warned in the latest report of its Global Climate Service that climate catastrophe was a major threat to the global economy, with cooler countries no longer benefiting from modest warming. Yet the extend of the threat is staggering, with a 15% contraction likely if global emissions paths are followed. Indeed, total economic annihilation could happen if global warming continues at its current rate towards a 5°C increase by 2100, the report warned. This would mean mass extinction of most animal species, reinforcing the concern that the world cannot physically or economically cope with continued temperature rises.
20.12.2022 18:07 Russia`s inflation was 12% y/y in November, in line with expectations
Russia`s inflation in November came at 0.37% month on month, implying 11.98% year-on-year price growth, which came in slightly higher than analysts` forecasts based on weekly statistics. “However, it may indicate that the price growth is returning to its monthly dynamics, which is more relevant to the CBR`s annual 4% inflation target,” BCS GM said in a note. Monthly data suggest that the main contributor to November inflation was services prices, which rose 0.76% m/m. As bne IntelliNews reported, Russia`s service PMI improved in November, but still remains in the red, posting 48.3, which is still below the 50 no-change mark. Russia`s manufacturing PMI, however, posted its biggest gain in five years, at 53.2.
06.12.2022 15:05 Telegram Audience Interaction with Channels: Research Results
In the fall of 2022, analysts from the DataFan service, in collaboration with representatives of the Telega.in platform working in the field of native integrations, as well as specialists from the eLama service, conducted a study of the behavior of the Telegram audience. The main goal of the work was to determine the actions of users in terms of their interaction with the content in the messenger, what they are guided by when choosing specific channels, and also why they often decide to unsubscribe from the channel. Based on the results obtained, marketers improved their understanding of user behavior and optimized promotion strategies. The study showed that 2022 has greatly advanced Telegram in terms of popularity. In fact, the messenger, remaining such to this day, has also become one of the largest social networks. This circumstance had the greatest impact on the communication of account holders with users. Indeed, in the messenger, the account owner transmits the published materials directly to his subscribers, as personal messages. For this reason, the interaction of Telegram channels and users is fundamentally different from the same interactions in groups and communities of other social networks and has a number of nuances.
05.12.2022 20:01 Russia`s GDP Shrinks 4.4% YOY in October
According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in October 2022, Russia`s GDP decreased by 4.4% year-on-year after a 5% contraction in September. In September, performance worsened across the board as domestic demand failed to sustain momentum in the sanctions-insulated economy. However, the fall in GDP in the 3rd quarter. 2022 was generally contained at a level below the expected 4%. October data show that Russia`s economic performance has not improved much in the reporting month and remains vulnerable to a wide range of external and internal shocks, commented BCS Global Markets. Analysts at BCS GM note that "the recent geopolitical shock has put additional pressure on the market and consumption", adding that the outlook for the coming months - with the oil embargo in mind - remains "gloomy". However, while internal shocks led to a significant reduction in consumption, which has remained 10% lower than last year since April, external shocks are mainly manifested in the mining and manufacturing industries, which are also under pressure, falling by 2.7 % and 2.4% year on year respectively in October. At the same time, BCS GM analysts emphasize that October continued to surprise the market with strong performance in construction, where growth was 9.6% year-on-year, last seen in mid-2021. Agriculture also supported the Russian economy, although its growth slowed from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October.
01.11.2022 18:30 Russian industry slides into 3% decline in September
Russian industrial output in September 2022 declined by 3.1% year on year versus a 0.1% y/y decline in August, according to the latest data from RosStat statistics agency. For 9M22 the overall industrial output still hung in positive territory at 0.4% y/y growth, supported by the strong 5.1% y/y growth seen previously in 1Q22. Previously in July and August the industrial output numbers supported the sentiment that the Russian economy is doing much better than expected under sanctions. But the 3.1% fall in September came as a negative surprise, noticeably worse than a 1% decline expected by the consensus, BCS Global Markets analysts commented on October 27. The analysts warn that as risks for the economy intensify in 4Q22, the industry could shrink by 2.2% y/y in 2022 overall.
18.10.2022 16:54 The best services for cooperation between advertisers and bloggers in 2022
In recent years, many business owners have become more active in the network and offer their products and services online. As competition grows for companies, the issue of promoting their business on the Internet has become increasingly important, which is carried out mainly through various kinds of advertising on thematic sites of bloggers. However, finding suitable sites is not an easy task. In 2022, online platforms for native integrations have become one of the most effective solutions in this area. The involvement of bloggers in the advertising process gives customers good results, and the presence in several services at once allows you to cover the circle of possible contacts as much as possible. Experts in the field of online advertising and native technologies have compiled a list of the five most convenient services that allow businesses to collaborate with influencers in specific marketing niches.
07.10.2022 18:20 Russia to Allow Cryptocurrency Mining in Regions with Abundant Electricity
Russian officials, who have recently been busy with the issue of legalizing cryptocurrencies, believe that the extraction of digital assets should be allowed in those regions of the country where there is an excess supply of electricity on the market. These are, first of all, the subjects in which there are hydroelectric power plants, as well as nuclear power plants. In regions where there is a shortage of electricity, mining is not planned to be allowed.
28.09.2022 18:22 The number of loans issued by MFIs in August increased to 2.68 million, and the average amount to 9.3 thousand rubles.
Loans, including online loans, microloans and payday loans, increased to 2.68 million in August, according to the National Credit Bureau (NBCH), where I share borrower data with microfinance institutions (MFIs). The indicator turned out to be more than the value of the previous month by only 0.1%, but on an annualized basis it grew by 6.6% at once. However, it still remains well below the November 2021 high of 3.17 million, although it is the highest in 8 months. By region, the number of loans issued by MFIs was generally distributed as expected by analysts. Thus, 143,000 loans were issued in Moscow over the month - the highest figure, followed by the Moscow Region and the Krasnodar Territory - 123.3 and 97.4 thousand, respectively. In the Sverdlovsk region and Bashkortostan, people received deputies 96.5 and 89.3 thousand times. In most regions, compared with July, an increase in the indicator was noted, and the Omsk region demonstrated the highest rates - 3.5%.
28.09.2022 16:57 Inflation in Russia is declining, while retail sales are starting to grow
According to the latest data from Rosstat, consumer prices in Russia for the week ended September 12 fell by 0.03% compared to the previous week, while deflation slowed down from 0.13% the previous week. According to his estimates, annual inflation in the reporting week slowed down from 14.08% to 14.06%. It is noteworthy that the main contribution to the slowdown in price decline was made by cucumbers, the price of which increased by 8.4%, as a result of which prices for all fruits and vegetables fell by only 1.6% (while potatoes fell seasonally by 5.17% ). In addition, airfare prices continued to rise, up 3.65% weekly. Many analysts have previously criticized Rosstat for the large weights of vegetables in inflation calculations. If we exclude from the calculations the increase in prices for vegetables and air travel, then deflation has remained in the range of 0.07-0.09% for the past three weeks, which means that the deflationary trend has not yet ended.