The Lastest Macroeconomic News
17.03.2017 10:15 Global middle-class growth will drive the world economy
Today, the global middle class, numbering about 3.2 billion in 2016, may be considerably larger — by about 500 million people - than when I first attempted to estimate their size seven years ago. Asian households, in particular, are now thought to be much richer, relatively speaking, than before. Indeed, the next decade could see a faster expansion of the middle class than at any other time in history. Within a few years, a majority of the world`s population could have middle-class or rich lifestyles for the first time ever. The most dynamic segment of the global middle-class market is at the lower end of the scale, among new entrants with comparatively low per capita spending.
15.03.2017 13:35 Business Roundtable CEOs Express Pessimism on GDP
The first-quarter survey of chief executive officers who are members of the Business Roundtable showed pessimism about U.S. gross domestic product growth for 2017. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index included a GDP forecast of 2.2% for this year, on par or below some other major outlooks. Recently, the International Monetary Fund pegged a forecast of U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% for 2017 as part of its World Economic Outlook (January edition). The Wall Street Journal survey of economists put the figure at 2.2%. The World Bank`s Global Economic Prospects figure for 2017 is 2.2% as well. Several individual economists are more optimistic. David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, has forecast a U.S. expansion of 2.4% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018. The Congressional Budget Office`s comparable number is 2.4% for this year.
13.03.2017 00:05 Russian inflation falls below 5% for the first time since Soviet days
Russia`s consumer price inflation has dropped below 5% for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union more than a quarter of a century ago. Inflation was 4.6% y/y in February, according to Rosstat, down from 5% in January and in line with the Bloomberg consensus for the month. The result will please the government as Russia is well on track to hit the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) target of getting to 4% inflation, maybe as soon as the end of this year. In broad terms, the 4% inflation target is the cornerstone of the government`s plan to reenergise the Russian economy. Once inflation gets down to the sort of levels of a “normal” country, the authorities are hoping this will kickstart borrowing, investment and spending as the cost of money will be low enough for long-term planning.
11.03.2017 19:03 Why Russia is far less threatening than it seems
Should the United States - and the West - worry that Russian power is on the rise? You might think so, given the extent to which Russian interference in this year`s elections dominates U.S. news. But in fact, Russian power is brittle. Masked by the country`s meddling in Western politics, invasion of Ukraine and support for Syria`s Bashar al-Assad, Russia is facing profound societal and economic problems. The country`s aging population and economic weakness are at odds with its military spending and global aspirations. In fact, domestic issues overlooked by the regime will soon restrict Putin`s ability to adventure abroad and project military force. Put simply, Russia lacks the resources to fund its great power pretensions.
09.03.2017 18:45 The 3 Biggest Risks Haunting the Global Economy
The stock market could crash. Protectionist trade policies might backfire leading to job losses. Or housing booms in some countries could go bust. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) looked into its crystal ball Tuesday, and warned that while the global economy is slowly improving now, these are some of the shocks that could derail the still-fragile recovery in the not-too-distant future. The OECD never mentions President Donald Trump by name it is report, but the Paris-based organization made it clear it does not endorse his “America First” trade proposals, or the broader protectionist zeitgeist sweeping across the United States, Britain, and Europe. “A roll-back of existing trade openness would be costly,” the OECD warned, noting an increase in trade barriers in the major global trading economies like the United States, Europe, and China could adversely impact GDP and jobs in those places. The warning comes with a chart, showing about 10% of American jobs are linked to global trade. In the United Kingdom, that number is over 20%, and in Germany, it`s near 30%.
06.03.2017 20:15 5 diseases that kill 16M people, cost the world economy $2.35T annually
Five non-communicable diseases that kill 16 million people around the world each year are projected to take a $47 trillion total toll on worldwide economic activity over the next 20 years, according to a report from the World Economic Forum and Willis Towers Watson. However, the burden of these five diseases could be significantly reduced by improving individual behavior and consumer choice, according to the report. The study suggests the healthcare ecosystem needs to shift to prevention over treatment when it comes to population health management.
03.03.2017 18:32 Global Economy: Two percent inflation. A call to action?
U.S. President Donald Trump`s address to Congress may make the most headlines, but inflation readings of 2 percent could prove more significant economic events next week - a call to action perhaps in America and a important milestone in Europe. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI), published mid-Feb, has already shown prices rising at their fastest monthly pace in nearly four years in January and a year-on-year rate of 2.5 percent. However, the Fed has often emphasized the inflation measure for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) because of its wider range of goods and services. And that too is now seen climbing to 2 percent on its release on Wednesday. Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, sees the release as pivotal, nudging more Federal Open Market Committee members, who next meet on March 14-15, to favor action as the excuse of low inflation disappears.
01.03.2017 19:32 India Q3 GDP grows 7% despite demonetization, analysts frown
India`s economic growth slowed marginally to 7% in October-December from 7.4% in the previous quarter, government data showed on Tuesday, raising eyebrows among experts and economists. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) also retained the advanced estimate for 2016-17 at 7.1%, which is lower than 7.9% of 2015-16, but higher than what most economists have predicted in view of the crippling effect that demonetisation has had on consumption and investment. The Q3 GDP growth estimate beat analysts` expectation of 6.4%. Some had even projected the growth to slip below 6%. Analysts point to flaws in the GDP calculations saying it does not factor in the informal sector, which was the worst hit after the government scrapped Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes in a surprise announcement on November 8.
26.02.2017 20:05 Euro zone economy: real recovery or another Sirens` song?
Over the years, euro zone economic growth has been a bit like the Sirens in Homer`s Odyssey: singing a song of promise, only to end up pulling you onto the rocks. Will it be different this time? The strong growth registered in numerous data releases and surveys at the beginning of this year has surprised many. One eye-opening example was the release of flash purchasing managers indices for France, Germany and the euro zone on Feb 21. Of nine indexes, eight registered growth and six did so at a higher level than any economist polled by Reuters had imagined. Not surprisingly, economists and policy-makers are now looking for firm proof that the euro zone`s apparent rebound this year is sustainable, as well as noting a variety of potentially destructive economic and political hazards ahead.
24.02.2017 10:02 Increasing female employment rates will boost the GDP in OCED countries by 12%
The Global Women Principal PwC has released its `Women in Work Index` research stating the progress made and emphasizing the need to make more attempts in increasing female employment rates. The research highlights the ups and downs in the Index across OCED (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Gradually, OCED maintained the legacy of trotting towards progress; this year`s Index states. It is rapidly progressing towards greater female economic empowerment. The Nordic countries Iceland, Sweden and Norway occupy the top position in the Women in Work Index in terms of gender pay gap. Some very developed countries Korea, Japan and Germany lags behind in this list; having a very high pay gap. By fully closing the gender pay gap, we could increase the female earnings by $2 trillion; an increase of 23%.
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