The Lastest Macroeconomic News
04.12.2016 11:30 OPEC Deal Could Be a Boon to World Economy Amid Shifting Dynamics
Traditional economics says a boost in oil prices - they rose more than 9% to over $49 a barrel Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut output - is bad for global growth because it erodes consumer buying power, especially in the world`s largest economies. But that view is built on experiences of the past. This time may be different, given changing dynamics in the world economy. “Higher oil prices are good for growth,” said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs. First, higher prices should help stimulate growth in the world`s largest economic engine, the U.S. It is one of the top three oil producers in the world, pumping more than nine million barrels a day, or 10% of global consumption. As prices fell over the last two years, investment in the sector pulled back and output sank by roughly a million barrels a day. But as prices picked up in recent months in anticipation of an OPEC deal, investment in the industry has risen. That should help push down unemployment further, pressure wages and fuel the U.S. economic expansion.
02.12.2016 11:40 Could Trump help revive Russia`s economy?
The cornerstone of Vladimir Putin`s strategy for political longevity has been his projection of Russia as a besieged fortress fighting off the menacing encroachment of the US and other western powers. By presenting himself as the only leader capable of protecting Russia from those who seek to undermine her, the authoritarian president has skilfully managed to distract his people from the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions that would doubtless sink the leader of a more democratic country. But the cost of maintaining a war footing is considerable, with massive spending on defence depriving the rest of the economy of much needed state support. Putin understands this well and Donald Trump`s election might provide him with an opportunity to rebalance public expenditure. When Putin came to office, there was little sign of the anti-western rhetoric that now so dominates his leadership and public discourse in Russia. Indeed, in 2001, just a couple of years after becoming leader, Putin said that Russia should either be allowed to join Nato or the alliance should be replaced by a new organisation that includes all of Europe and Russia. But his desire for integration did not last long.
30.11.2016 12:28 U.S. Economy Grew at 3.2% Rate in 3rd Quarter
The United States economy in the third quarter grew at the fastest pace in two years, according to a revised report that showed stronger consumer spending than first estimated. The gross domestic product, the country`s total output of goods and services, expanded at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the July-September period, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday. That is up from a previous estimate of 2.9 percent. The revision was significantly better than the meager gains of 0.8 percent in the first quarter and 1.4 percent in the second, when the economy was being held back by a strong dollar and weak business investment. The 3.2 percent increase was expected to be the best showing for the year. Economists say they believe growth has slowed to around 2 percent in the current quarter. At the moment, they are forecasting growth of 2 to 2.5 percent for 2017.
28.11.2016 11:06 The cost of climate change: World`s economy will lose $12tn unless greenhouse gases are tackled
Preventing global warming from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius will mean the world`s economy is at least 10 per cent bigger by 2050 than it would be if action is not taken to reduce greenhouse gases, according to a new report. The planet`s average temperature has already risen about 1C in about 130 years, with scientists admitting that restricting this to just 0.5C more will be difficult. However the report – released by the United Nations Development Programme and a group of 43 developing countries which are highly vulnerable to climate change – argued doing so would be worth it. As a result, the world`s gross domestic product would fall by $21 trillion by 2050, compared to $33 trillion under a `business-as-usual` approach that allows global warming of 2.5 degrees. This saving of $12 trillion (about £9.6 trillion) represents about 10 per cent of global GDP.
26.11.2016 11:28 World economy needs Trump to build bridges, not burn them
President-elect Donald Trump`s big-spending plan to revitalize US infrastructure could be just the ticket to drag the world economy out of its post-crisis torpor, experts say. Experts warn benefits from President-elect Donald Trump`s big-spending plans could be eroded if he sticks to his aim of putting "America first" and tearing up trade pacts. But there is a huge caveat, they warn: the plan`s benefits would be eroded if Trump executes his avowed aim of putting "America first" and tearing up commercial pacts, potentially igniting a trade war. The Republican property tycoon`s team says he will devote $550 billion to rebuilding decrepit highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools and hospitals -- something that President Barack Obama failed to persuade Republicans in Congress to back.
24.11.2016 10:49 The World Economy Is Too Interconnected for the U.S. to Retreat
What kind of economic world do we live in? It is interconnected, not only in the sharing of information, but also in the relationships among financial markets. The movement of money between the world`s currencies has been amazing. And the dollar, being the premier store of value currency, is at the center of everything. Consider what has been happening since the U.S. presidential election. The U.S. dollar has risen substantially against the euro. It has also risen against the pound, extending the gains that occurred after the British voted to leave the European Union. Since election day, the dollar has risen against the yen and further extended gains against China`s yuan. Currencies from emerging-market nations have also declined in value during this period. And, if the Federal Reserve raises its short-term interest rate target at its December meeting, this will only further strengthen the the dollar. Furthermore, it is expected that the Fed will raise rates again next year, maybe more than once.
23.11.2016 12:23 How Italy Is Helping Russia Avoid More Sanctions
One of the most reliable partners for Russia in the European block is Italy. During a recent European summit in Brussels, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi successfully persuaded other European countries such as Germany, France and the U.K. to refrain from introducing new economic sanctions against Russia in response to Moscow`s bombardment of the Syrian city of Aleppo. This week`s summit was not the first time Italy stepped in to help Russia. According to the International Business Times, Italy attempted to block EU proposals to renew sanctions against Russia in December 2015. ”Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has consistently asked EU partners to avoid isolating Russia and to involve Moscow in resolving international conflicts,” the paper said.
22.11.2016 12:03 October economic data show Russian economy still slumping
Russian retail sales fell further and an increase in real wages slowed in October, official data showed on November 18, signaling that an economic slump is yet to run its course. Russian officials have said in recent months the economy will return to growth soon, because it has passed the most acute phase of an economic crisis sparked by low oil prices and Western sanctions. However, the October data came in below expectations and revised figures for September paint a gloomier picture. Taken together, that could mean Russia will return to economic growth later than previously thought. Statistics service Rosstat said retail sales fell by 4.4 percent in October from a year ago after declining by 3.6 percent a month earlier.
21.11.2016 18:17 IMF`s Lagarde sees Russian economy heading toward stable growth
The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde said Russia has done a good job maintaining macroeconomic stability given declining crude prices. “Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, Russia had proceeded to, or would precede, she hopes, on the track of sustainable growth,” Russian Deputy Minister of Economic Development Stanislav Voskresensky quoted Lagarde after the APEC leaders` meeting with the IMF managing director. Voskresensky also spoke about Lagarde`s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Responding to President Putin`s question about Russia`s financial sector, Lagarde said the country`s authorities, including the central bank, have been doing a fantastic job. Putin cited the latest macroeconomic data and asked for Lagarde`s advice concerning the banking system. Lagarde said the banking system is stable but very passive and is not contributing much to economic growth as there is little active lending.
19.11.2016 12:17 The Russian economy: Is the glass half-full or half-empty?
A sharp drop in oil prices in the winter of 2014 vividly revealed the structural economic problems in Russia, triggering an economic recession from which the country still has not fully recovered. The new reality of lower oil prices and sanctions has forced the Russian government to undertake certain steps aimed at adapting the economy to these new financial conditions. As experts point out, Russia`s economic decline also coincided with a global economic development trend of lower growth. In general, the world is experiencing weak economic growth. According to World Bank data, global growth slowed down to 2.2 percent in 2016 from 2.6 percent in 2013. This slowdown coincided with the stagnation in global trade in 2016, the lowest it has been since 2013. Moreover, oil prices remain low, averaging $44.7 per barrel (bbl). As a result, Russia is currently experiencing a sustained fall in real incomes, which keeps domestic demand depressed. In 2016 Russia experienced the most significant fall in real incomes since 2008, when the global economic crisis struck.
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