The Lastest Macroeconomic News
27.01.2017 13:32 China`s GDP Numbers: Can We Trust The Data?
The country recently announced that its annual growth rate for 2016 rang in at 6.7%, after taking into account the fourth quarter`s 6.8% growth rate. This is in line with the nation`s target range of 6.5-7%. But after years of producing growth even in the darkest of circumstances, China has gained a reputation for possibly overestimating its growth rate. At this point, China watchers are questioning whether the data can be trusted. Although the growth rate was the lowest it has been since 1990, China`s 2016 numbers were quite strong for a nation that is losing steam and incurring increasing debt. Particularly odd was that the growth rate actually increased from 6.7% in Q3 to 6.8% in Q4 despite an apparently decelerating economy. As a result of these contradictions, China`s National Bureau of Statistics was forced to guarantee the statistics as “authentic.”
25.01.2017 19:50 Trump China Trash Talk Risks Collateral Damage to Global Economy
China may be growing at its slowest annual pace since 1990, but it`s still the powerhouse of global growth. That`s something Donald Trump`s trade hawks will need to consider if they`re truly serious about risking a conflict with China to win economic concessions. Not only would a clash derail bilateral ties, it might also deep-six a nascent global recovery. Powered by government stimulus that fired up smokestack industries and a burgeoning middle class that`s spending on everything from Starbuck`s coffee to Apple iPhones, China`s gross domestic product grew 6.7 percent in 2016. That means it likely contributed 30 percent of global growth last year, slightly above its 28 percent contribution in 2015, according to Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Singapore.
23.01.2017 14:36 IMF Warns of Possible Disruptions in Global Economy in 2017
The still-strong dollar, American and British protectionism, currency wars, and fiscal stimuli in various economies will all contribute to increased volatility in international trade and the world economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned. An increased fragmentation in international trade, the rise of economic protectionism in key world economies, accommodative tax policies, and deregulation might pose significant challenges to the global economy this year, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde said in a speech to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Some of the concerns of spillovers produced by the policies of the Donald Trump administration in the US and the post-Brexit UK might eventually come true, producing a net negative outcome for the world economy overall, and the reshaping of the global economic landscape might turn out to be painful.
22.01.2017 12:39 Russia`s economy minister forecasts 2 percent growth if no shocks
Russia`s economy could grow by 2 percent in 2017 as long as there are no external shocks such as a renewed fall in oil prices, Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The Russian economy shrank by between 0.5 and 0.6 percent last year, according to a preliminary data, due to low oil prices and Western sanctions. Yet, with oil prices recovering thanks to last month`s Russia-OPEC deal on cutting oil output, prospects for the economy look brighter this year. Oreshkin said Russia would not abandon a free-floating rouble, which was one of the moves taken by the Russian central bank to help the economy in 2014. The policy was aimed at preserving its gold and foreign exchange reserves, which had been previously been used to smooth out rouble volatility.
20.01.2017 22:25 UN Report - Global Economy Still In Recession, India To Grow At 7.7% In 2017
One of the usual United Nations reports, the World Economic Situation and Prospects one, has just appeared and it tells us that India is forecast to grow at 7.7% in the financial year 2017 - but the world economy is going to continue to grumble along at recessionary levels. The underlying analysis of the Indian economy being that matters are fundamentally correct and demonetization is going to have only short term negative effects. That point about the global economy needs a bit of explaining though. For growth will be positive and a recession is negative growth--ah, yes, but the world economy should be growing strongly and thus we tend to refer to slow growth as still being a recession.
18.01.2017 00:01 Russia wants to double GDP by 2035
Russia has the potential to double GDP by 2035, said former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin who is now head of a leading Russian think tank, the Center for Strategic Research (CSR). Kudrin is the man behind a new economic program prepared for President Vladimir Putin, and he said that in order to reach the GDP goal, serious reforms must be implemented that will fundamentally change the Russian economy`s structure. “The Russian economy now grapples with a similar situation as the Soviet Union during the years of stagnation in the 1970s,” said Kudrin at the Gaidar Economic Forum in Moscow on Jan. 13. The current economic crisis and the devaluation of the ruble in 2014 led to a 3 percent drop in GDP in 2015, with a 0.5 percent drop expected in 2016, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. This situation can be corrected, said Kudrin, but it`s necessary to implement those structural reforms that the government has been talking about for years but which were never realized.
16.01.2017 11:34 These 5 Trends Will Shape the Global Economy in 2017
Every year brings its share of events that take us by surprise and shake up the global economy. Few prognosticators saw Britain voting to leave the European Union in 2016, though the decision will likely have important implications for global trade in the coming years. And it almost goes without saying that most polls and pundits failed to anticipate Donald Trump`s election victory in the U.S. That said, many of the economic trends that shape our world can be spotted ahead of time by careful observers. Whether it`s the return of fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration, or the Federal Reserve`s plans to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, here are 5 trends to focus on in the new year.
14.01.2017 22:07 IMF: Russian economy to grow steadily in next 5 years, but has capacity for more
Russia will see average GDP growth of 1.5 percent in the next five years, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director David Lipton. However, he told the Gaidar Economic Forum in Moscow the country should strive for faster growth. In an interview with TASS news agency, Lipton confirmed October`s IMF forecast that predicts global growth of 3.8 percent by 2021, with the Russian economy to grow significantly slower at 1.5 percent. According to Lipton, Russia should implement some policy changes, reforms and structural changes that will increase the capacity of the economy to catch up with global growth rates. The eighth annual Gaidar Forum takes place from January 12 to 14, 2017 in the Russian capital. This year, it focuses on the analysis of the current economic situation and economic growth prospects in Russia and will cover financial and social policy issues, business climate and priorities for regional development in the country.
12.01.2017 10:46 World Bank: Trump and Brexit put global economic growth at risk
A tentative pickup in the global economy this year is at risk from the political uncertainty unleashed by Brexit and the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, the World Bank has said. The Washington-based organisation said 2016 had been the weakest year for the global economy since the deep recession of 2008-09 and expressed concern that protectionist pressures would continue to increase unless the pace of activity picked up. Announcing the findings of its annual Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the bank said global growth had failed to meet its forecast every year since 2011. A sluggish performance by the US and recessions in large commodity-dependent economies kept expansion in the world economy to 2.3%, down from 2.7% in 2015.
10.01.2017 20:02 Predictions for the economy and investments in 2017
The UK economy will perform better than many anticipate, predicts Richard Stone, chief executive of The Share Centre. He thinks that there will be the first interest rate rise in the UK for nearly 10 years. Stone believes the UK economy will continue to perform more strongly than anticipated. "Unemployment remains low and employment is at near record levels. "The boost from sterling"s devaluation will continue to feed through - particularly for exporters to the EU who still have unfettered access to the single market but with substantially lower pricing in euro terms." January will see the inauguration of president Donald Trump and we will then start to see how his policy pronouncements play out. In the US the power of the president is constrained by the checks and balances inherent in the system, particularly in Congress. But the president still has significant sway on foreign policy and trade. Commenting on the US economy, Stone says that it is building a reasonable recovery.
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