The Lastest Macroeconomic News
27.06.2017 18:25 IMF Cuts U.S. Outlook, Calls Trump`s Growth Target Unlikely
The International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for the U.S. economy, removing assumptions of President Donald Trump`s plans to cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending to spur growth. The IMF reduced its forecast for U.S. growth this year to 2.1 percent, from 2.3 percent in the fund`s April update to its world economic outlook. The Washington-based fund also cut its projection for U.S. growth next year to 2.1 percent, from 2.5 percent in April. The world`s biggest economy will probably have a hard time hitting Trump`s target of 3 percent annual growth as it`s faced with problems ranging from an aging population to low productivity growth, and with a labor market already back at full employment, the fund said in its annual assessment of the U.S. economy released Tuesday. The IMF`s assessment casts doubt over a more optimistic forecast in the White House budget proposal, which projects growth will accelerate to 3 percent by 2020 and keep up that pace for seven more years. Even with an “ideal constellation of pro-growth policies, the potential growth dividend is likely to be less than that projected in the budget and will take longer to materialize,” the IMF said in a statement Tuesday.
25.06.2017 22:28 With oil washing out, Russia`s zeal to reform remains elusive
Stubbornly cheap oil prices - which this week probed their lowest levels since August despite OPEC`s best intentions - have created a new world order for crude production powerhouses like Russia and Saudi Arabia. Although the latter is pursuing a bold reform agenda, punctuated this week by a dramatic leadership shake-up, the former copes by flexing its geopolitical muscles in a way that successfully diverts from economic worries at home. A Pew Research poll published this week revealed a few cracks in President Vladimir Putin`s Teflon on domestic issues. Although Putin retains overwhelming majority support, his ratings on energy policy and the economy have fallen by double digits over the last two years, Pew found.
23.06.2017 19:35 Modi`s India The World`s 4th Fastest Growing Economy in 2017
Prime Minister Modi`s currency experimentation has not stopped India`s vibrant economy, which is the world`s fourth fastest growing economy in the world thus far in 2017. That`s according to the World Bank`s latest edition of Global Economic Prospects. For 2017, India`s economy is expected to advance 7.2%. That`s slightly above the country`s long-term growth. GDP Annual Growth Rate in India averaged 6.12% from 1951 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 11.40% in the first quarter of 2010 and a record low of -5.20% in the fourth quarter of 1979, according to Tradingeconomics.com. The Indian economy has benefited from a stable macroeconomic environment of low inflation and interest rates, which has helped shake off a temporary slow-down in consumer spending and a drop in investment that followed the demonetization program back in November 2016 -- which took 86% of the country`s currency out of circulation.
21.06.2017 13:52 Russia`s economic data for May point to gradual recovery
Russian economic indicators improved further in May, suggesting an economy battered by weak oil prices and Western sanctions is finally recovering. Reports on Tuesday showed retail sales rose, real wages increased and unemployment fell last month - more evidence that the Russian economy will grow this year, after two years of recession. "Most indicators remain weak, but they are stronger than they used to be and are above consensus. So we are clearly talking about an acceleration of growth, rather than stagnation," said Vladimir Osakovsky, an economist at Bank of America Merill Lynch in Moscow. Retail sales, a gauge for consumer demand, grew 0.7 percent on the year in May, exceeding analysts` forecasts for 0.5 percent growth. The monthly increase was the second in a row, after more than a year of contraction. "The long-awaited start of a consumer recovery is clearly the most positive news," Osakovsky said.
19.06.2017 23:00 Oil`s Risk to the Russian Ruble
Which of the following is expected to be the biggest challenge facing the ruble in the coming year? 1. Market structure changes. 2. Russian Central bank politics. 3. Navigating Geopolitical challenges? 4. Vodka prices. 5. Oil? If you said vodka prices then you were totally wrong. That was a joke, since everyone knows that Vodka is priceless in Russia. The answer is oil. Russia has one of the largest petroleum industries in the world. It has been blessed with many natural resources, including the largest reserve of natural gas, the second largest Coal reserve, and the eighth largest oil reserve. However, the ruble was seriously impacted by the low oil prices over the last few years. A recent survey conducted by Bloomberg survey on foreign exchange (FX) executives showed that 51% believe that oil prices will have the biggest effect on the ruble.
17.06.2017 13:05 Migrants Sending Billions More Home Than in 2007
Migrants are sending home billions of dollars more than they did a decade ago—and the rate of growth in remittances is almost double the increase in migration, according to a UN report. The report commissioned by the International Fund for Agricultural Development said that remittances increased by 51% during the decade from 2007 to 2016 while migration rose by 28% and population in the home countries of migrants grew by 13%, AP reported. Most remittances ($117 billion) came from the US, followed by Europe ($115 billion) and the Persian Gulf Arab states ($100 billion). Over 100 countries receive more than $100 million in remittances every year, the report said, led by China, India, the Philippines, Mexico and Pakistan. It said the top 10 sending countries account for almost half the annual remittances: US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Russia, Germany, Kuwait, France, Qatar, Italy and Britain.
15.06.2017 12:01 WTTC: Global tourism supports twice as many jobs as financial sector
According to a new report by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the global Travel & Tourism sector directly sustains twice as many jobs as the financial sector, and five times as many jobs as the chemicals manufacturing sector. The WTTC Benchmarking Report 2017 compares Travel & Tourism to eight other sectors, which are considered to have similar breadth and global presence, across 27 countries and six regions. In 2016, Travel & Tourism supported 108 million jobs directly, and 292 million in total, taking the direct, indirect, and induced impact into account. The report shows that both on direct and total level, Travel & Tourism employs more people than the automotive manufacturing, banking, mining, chemicals manufacturing, and financial services sectors.
13.06.2017 11:57 Half of expected world GDP growth in the next 2 years will come from the US and China
According to forecasts from earlier this year by the World Bank, the global economy is expected to average a Real GDP growth rate of 2.8% between 2017-2019. But where will this growth actually happen? Is it in giant countries that are growing at a stable 2% clip, or is it occurring in the smaller emerging markets where 8% growth is not uncommon? Today`s chart looks at individual countries between 2017-2019, based on their individual growth projections from the World Bank, to see where new wealth is being created. Even though growth has slowed in China somewhat, the World Bank still estimates its economy to expand at a 6.5% clip this year, and 6.3% in both 2018 and 2019. Add these numbers onto the world`s second biggest economy (and the biggest in PPP terms), and you have an incredible amount of growth. In fact, about 35.2% of global GDP growth will come from China over this period of time, putting the country`s economic output $2.3 trillion higher.
11.06.2017 14:29 OECD says global economic outlook has improved
The global economic outlook is doing better than it was, but has not yet improved sufficiently to make a material difference to people`s lives, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its twice yearly assessment of the world economy. The Paris-based international organisation has improved most of its forecasts but warned politicians against complacency because it thinks the improved growth outlook is temporary without signs yet of an improvement in underlying performance. Speaking to the Financial Times, Catherine Mann, chief economist of the OECD, said: “The global economic outlook is better, but we are concerned that policymakers will look at the broader-based cyclical upturn, become complacent and think that `our job is done`.” Against a backdrop of heightened hostility to globalisation from the Trump administration and other nationalist governments, the OECD also argued that economies and people`s lives would be improved by a global trade recovery and more globalisation so long as countries help those hit by greater competition. In its forecasts, the OECD predicted global growth rates will rise to 3.5 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018 from a recent low of 3 per cent in 2016, its lowest since 2009.
07.06.2017 12:19 Five things to look out for in the world economy this week
This week the UK general election - and of course last night`s heinous terrorist attack in London - drowns out everything, or at least it does for Britons. But whatever the outcome on Thursday, the economics won`t change. The next government, for it will be a new government in a new parliament, will face a series of economic challenges over the next five years. So here are five things to look for, not next week, but during the lifetime of the new parliament. First, there is a strong probability that there will be a cyclical global downturn. This may or may not be sufficiently serious to become a recession in major developed countries, and the timing of course is quite uncertain. But if you look back at previous economic cycles since the Second World War, some sort of slowing of the developed world looks highly likely. This expansion, at least in the US and UK, has been running for nine years and that is at the top end of previous growth phases. Europe, which suffered a double recession, may have more leeway, but it would be foolish to assume that economic management has advanced enough to abolish boom and bust.