The Lastest Macroeconomic News
14.09.2016 11:52 Russia Economic Power Shrinking, Losing Market Share
Russia`s economic power is shrinking, and with the world’s oil and gas glut, its chief export is starting lose market share in Europe. A new government report on Russia`s economic output next year shows tepid growth in 2017, and not much to write home about for the next two years either. “We will continue to lose our share in the world economy and in fact be weaker,” says Kirill Tremasov, head of the Department of Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Ministry of Economic Development. Tremasov expects 2017 oil prices to average around $41 per barrel, hurting GDP growth but at least keeping inflation in check. Following negative growth this year, Tremasov expects growth of 0.7% in 2017, with an average growth rate between 2017-2019 of around 1.5%. “We need a growth rate of at least 3.5%,” Tremasov said.
12.09.2016 13:22 ACRA: Russia`s Recession Continues, GDP to Shrink 1.5% in 2016
Russia`s recession has not yet ended and activity in a number of key sectors has declined over the past five months, the country`s Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) said Monday. "Economic statistics for January-July 2016 show that the recession de-facto has not ended. Current seasonally adjusted growth rates of the major sectors remain negative. The mining sector, retail, construction and other basic activities have been declining over the last five months," ACRA said in its latest forecast. Russia`s recession could last until early 2017, with growth rates likely to be restricted to less than 1.5 percent after that even in case oil prices rise, according to the forecast. Russia`s GDP is expected to fall 1.5 percent in 2016 and 0.1 percent next year before returning to growth and expanding 0.5 percent in 2018 and 0.7 percent in 2019.
10.09.2016 10:43 Globalization of the World Economy Hits a Wall
For the first time since early 2014, the dollar value of goods imported and exported by the G20 countries actually grew a little in the second quarter of this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reported last week. This is probably just because oil prices bounced back a bit after hitting a 12-year low in the first quarter. The world trade volume index maintained by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis fell 0.7 percent in the second quarter. (The bureau, which also goes by its Dutch initials, CPB, doesn`t actually go out and measure how big the things are that we`re trading with each other; it just adjusts for price and currency fluctuations to give a clearer picture of trade flows.) By this metric, global trade has been sputtering since early 2015, and the sputtering has been getting worse lately, not better. For those who have been following the shipping business, this surely isn`t a big surprise. As Bloomberg Gadfly`s David Fickling and Rani Molla put it Tuesday: "Of the top 15 container lines that were in operation nine months ago, four have gone out of business or are in the process of doing so." Much of the world seems to be in denial about this, though. Fickling and Molla again: "The global container fleet is still getting bigger."
08.09.2016 13:20 Japan revised data show GDP grew 0.7 pct in April-June
Japan`s economy expanded at a better-than-estimated 0.7 percent annualized pace in April-June, according to revised data showing private demand was stronger than earlier reported. An earlier estimate put annualized growth in the April-June quarter at 0.2 percent. The economy grew at a 2.1 percent annualized pace in January-March. The latest data showed business investment fell by a smaller margin than reported in August, while consumer spending was higher. But both remain much slower than hoped for given the government`s targets for growth. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has proposed an extra set of stimulus measures to help prop up the economic recovery and spur more consumer and corporate spending, which are seen as crucial for sustaining growth. The Bank of Japan is also reviewing its own lavish monetary stimulus policies and is expected to step up its efforts to combat deflation, possibly later this month.
06.09.2016 18:56 1 Fact and 2 Forecasts for the Global Economy
Global economic growth is slowing. The world economy continues to expand, but at a smaller growth rate than in recent years. The outlook isn`t much better. In fact, the IMF keeps revising its forecast downwards, as do the forecasters tracked by FocusEconomics. It turns out that the expected growth isn`t much off than the historical average. Advanced economies are will not accelerate from current tepid growth, but emerging economies will gradually improve. The IMF forecast for world GDP in 2017 is 3.4 percent growth (inflation adjusted). The long-run average, calculated since 1970, is 3.6 percent. That`s not much different. It seems weak because previous forecasts had been up around 4.0 percent. We`ve had years with more than five percent growth. But the current forecasts are not that bad. Even if we take a narrower slice of history, say 1990 through 2015, we get just 3.6 percent growth. So maybe it`s not so bad. Population growth is lower than the long-run trend by about 0.3 percent a year (1.2 recently compared to 1.5 historically), so per capital GDP growth is not bad.
04.09.2016 16:50 Eurostat: EU is the largest contributor to world GDP
The EU generates almost a quarter of world GDP despite containing just 7 per cent of the world`s population, a new statistical analysis by Eurostat has revealed. In total, the 20 countries that make up the G20 account for a massive 85 per cent of global GDP. In a report comparing the 28-nation bloc to the 15 non-EU countries that form part of the G20, Eurostat noted that the EU average of 1.5 births per woman was the third-lowest among G20 countries. Only Japan (1.4) and South Korea (1.2) have a lower birth rate. The EU`s old-age dependency, measured as the ratio of the number of people aged 65 and over to the working age population, is the second-highest among G20 states, with its 28.1 per cent rate beating Canada, Australia and the United States.
02.09.2016 20:04 Japan`s economic gambit for progress on Russia territorial row
Japan hopes to soften Russia`s stance on a long-standing territorial dispute by presenting an economic partnership proposal, tailored to Moscow`s interests in such fields as energy. The two nations` leaders met Friday in Vladivostok. The Japanese minister of economy, trade and industry, Hiroshige Seko, was also appointed minister for economic cooperation with Russia on Thursday. Seko has played a key role in drafting specific plans under an eight-point economic partnership proposal agreed on at a May summit in Sochi. He attended Friday`s meeting as well. In addition to economic issues, the leaders discussed the extremely important issue of a peace treaty at the meeting. The Japanese government is pursuing a comprehensive economic partnership with Russia and hopes that Moscow acknowledges the importance of the move.
31.08.2016 14:08 Japan versus the United States in per-capita GDP
We often see and hear in the media about the "stagnation" of economic growth in Japan. Let`s look at the numbers and see how Japan has done compared to the United States in the 15 years of the 21st century so far. If we measure by growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), without considering changes in population, Japan`s economic growth is far behind that of the United States. From 2000 to 2015, its real GDP grew an average of 0.72 percent per year, while U.S. real GDP grew an average of 1.77 percent. In average growth rates, more than 1 percent per year is a big difference, indeed, as it compounds over time. Over 15 years, this annual growth rate difference would add up to U.S. GDP being 30 percent larger, compared to 11 percent larger for Japan, a difference of 19 percentage points. However, economic well-being is not measured by aggregate GDP, but by GDP per capita. The question is how much production there is per person. In this case, measuring per-capita growth gives us a very different outcome.
29.08.2016 14:00 New energy for world economy
How can the world`s strongest economies better collaborate to increase growth and address some of today`s mounting challenges? At the G20 summit in Hangzhou next month, hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping, world leaders will discuss new partnerships and propose solutions to some of the most pressing economic issues. The key issue expected to dominate September`s G20 Summit in Hangzhou, China will be global growth… more specifically, the slowdown in global growth. Stephen Leeb, Research Chairman, Leeb Group, said: "Clearly it`s slow growth. I mean, in a word. Basically, what can harm the world much quicker than anything else is very slow growth and unequal growth, and right now we are subject to both… both international unequal growth in the sense that you have widening inequalities and externally where you have countries that are doing very well or pretty well and some countries that are almost flatlining.” "There`s no way to, in effect, get global growth, get domestic growth - whether you`re talking about China, the U.S., Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Britain - you can`t really get that expansion of real GDP going unless you have a sense of coordinated policy," said Steve Blitz, Chief Economist, M Science.
26.08.2016 09:35 The journey of India`s GDP from 1000 A.D. to 2020
Till about 300 years ago, India accounted for more than a quarter of the world`s GDP. This share began falling following the advent of British power over the subcontinent. In the past few years, though, India`s economy has seen a revival and will continue to do so, a report called “India: The Giant Awakens” by Aberdeen Asset Management says. One of the largest funds in the world, Aberdeen is bullish about India whose economic growth, according to its report, is coming a full circle. “India`s rise may seem unprecedented but it`s actually reclaiming a position it held for centuries. Throughout much of the last 2,000 years, India has been either the largest or the second-largest economy in the world,” Kenneth Akintewe, senior investment manager, fixed income, Aberdeen Asia, writes in the report.
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