The Lastest Macroeconomic News
29.12.2016 12:57 Substantial recovery still elusive for Russia economy
After more than two years of recession Elvira Nabiullina, Russia`s central bank governor, had good news to offer. Russia, which has struggled to get over a slump triggered by a sharp drop in oil prices and by western sanctions, was set for “slight positive growth in GDP” in the current quarter, she said. With oil prices ticking up, and hopes that a US administration led by Donald Trump could bring at least some sanctions relief, some investors have taken the view that Russia`s recovery can gather steam. International funds are taking an interest in Russian stocks again, with the Micex, the main stock market index, soaring 27 per cent this year. Inside Russia, though, expectations are far more muted. Most people have yet to feel any economic stabilisation. Real incomes continue to shrink. Inflation, although expected by the central bank to drop to under 5.8 per cent by the end of the year from more than 15 per cent last December, continues to eat into pensions and salaries. Consumers remain timid: retail sales fell 4.4 per cent in October, year on year.
27.12.2016 10:25 Russia`s politics blights its economic outlook
Capping what president Vladimir Putin must feel has been a good year for Russia, Moscow`s stock market is one of 2016`s best performers. Despite sanctions restricting banks` and oil companies` access to western finance, Russian equities are up about 27 per cent in local currency and 47 per cent in dollar terms. Yet this recovery is linked almost entirely to short-term external factors rather than long-term fundamentals. Oil prices, Russia`s economic lifeblood, are up about 50 per cent from a year ago. Little surprise, then, that equities and the rouble should have strengthened. Investors are also betting on a “Trump trade” - a deal between Mr Putin and the incoming US president that eases sanctions. The outlook remains anaemic. Russia is just pulling out of a two-year recession. Output contracted about 0.6 per cent this year. Assuming sanctions remain, international forecasters see economic growth of perhaps 1.2 per cent next year, and 1.5 per cent in 2018 and beyond. That lags behind global growth, the US, and even the EU.
25.12.2016 19:20 2016 in review: Top 5 of Russian economic results
RBTH has compiled a preliminary list of the key 2016 events in the Russian economy. The official economic analysis of the year is usually announced in February, when information about key statistical indicators becomes available. 1. Russia agrees to cut crude production. For the first time in several years, the Russian government agreed to reduce oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. The move was among the conditions of the agreement signed in early December between OPEC and non-aligned oil producing countries. A dedicated committee will be seeing to it that the parties keep their promises. 2. Moscow returns to the global financial market. 3. The first glimpse of deflation in five years. 4. Russia rises in Doing Business ranking. 5. Government sells Rosneft shares to foreigners.
23.12.2016 13:28 Russia to experience another economic collapse in 2017?
The devaluation of the Russian rouble is inevitable, supervisor of "Stolypin Club" program, Yakov Mirkin believes. According to the specialist, Russia currently experiences the crisis scenario of 1998, 2009 and 2014. According to Bloomberg analysts, rouble assets may ensure the yield of 15 percent for investors by the end of 2017. In late 2016, during only three months, the profitability of investments in rouble assets made up seven percent, which was the highest rate among 31 basic currencies of the world. Borrowing dollars at low interest rates in foreign markets, investors profit by investing in Russia. This is due to the high key rate of the Bank of Russia and the more or less stable rouble. However, according to Yakov Mirkin, this is not a positive trend. The expert believes that Russia has every reason to remain concerned. According to Mirkin, Russia may soon experience another "explosive wave" of devaluation of the national currency that would repeat the previous scenarios of the collapse of the Russian rouble.
21.12.2016 11:45 Stability needed next year for stronger global economy
For China and the world to witness stronger economic growth next year, one thing is needed: stability. For an international market trapped in fluctuations during a year of surprising events, a new direction in 2017 is a must, something discussed at a recently ended annual economic policy meeting in Beijing. "Seeking progress while maintaining stability" was the main theme of this year`s Central Economic Work Conference, according to a statement released by the conference. Economic priorities for 2017 were also be hammered out. With a gross domestic product (GDP) accounting for over 15 percent of the global total, China`s growth at 6.7 percent in the third quarter, or between 6.5 percent and 7 percent annually, represents a natural and significant contribution to global economic stability.
19.12.2016 14:05 Russia holds rate but will consider cut in first half 2017
Russia`s central bank left its key policy rate at 10.0 percent but said it “will consider an opportunity of cutting the key rate in the first half of 2017” as the trend towards a sustainable decline in consumer prices takes root. The guidance and decision by the Bank of Russia`s was in line with its commitment from the previous board meeting in October that it would maintain the rate throughout this year to anchor the downward trend in inflation and then potentially cut the rate in the first half of 2017. The Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points in June, the first cut since July 2015, and since then inflation has decelerated and the exchange rate of the ruble appreciated. But the central bank said the decline in inflation was partly due to temporary factors, including the higher ruble and higher-than-expected oil prices that have helped keep Russian assets attractive and a good harvest that helped ease food inflation.
17.12.2016 18:05 Japan, Russia Unveil $2.5 Billion in Economic Deals
Japan launched a fresh effort Friday to overcome a deadlock in a territorial dispute with Russia by announcing bilateral economic deals worth ¥300 billion ($2.5 billion). The deals, in sectors such as energy, health care and transport, are part of a push by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to soften Moscow`s resistance to Tokyo`s claims on four islands to Japan`s north that are administered by Russia. The islands were seized from Japan by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II and are now considered by Russia to be an integral part of its territory. Following a second day of summit talks between Mr. Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two sides also said they may expand visa-free travel for Japanese former residents of the islands and agreed on a joint study into the possibility of joint economic development of the territory.
15.12.2016 18:33 Rising Risks Could Cost Global Cities $1.17 Trillion of GDP in 2017
The costs of major shocks to the global economy from natural and manmade threats could put at risk $1.17 trillion of the total projected GDP of the world`s major cities in 2017, according to the findings of a report compiled by the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies (CCRS) at the Cambridge University Judge Business School. Cautioning that a period of heightened risk lies ahead, the Centre for Risk Studies revealed its Global Risk Index of GDP Risk for 300 leading cities and expected losses from 22 different types of shocks is estimated to rise above a 10-year expected baseline of 1.48 percent of annual GDP to approximately 1.51 percent of the projected GDP of $77.7 trillion in 2017. And that number is expected to rise in the subsequent two years, 2018 and 2019.
13.12.2016 11:44 Migrants contributed 9.4% to global GDP in 2015
Cross border migrants, who made up 3.4 percent of the world`s population in 2015, contributed 9.4 percent ($6.7 trillion) to its GDP, a report by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) titled `People on the move: Global migration`s Impact and Opportunity`, revealed on Thursday. The subject of migration has featured prominently in several important global events over the past year, from the Brexit vote to the American presidential elections, and spurred in part by the refugee crisis in the Middle East. “Despite the misgivings and controversy surrounding it, cross-border migration is a natural outcome of a more interconnected world and a global labour market,” the report, which also suggests that a vast majority of migrants are economic migrants and not refugees or asylum seekers, stated.
11.12.2016 12:20 IATA expects 0.9% of world GDP to be spent on air transport in 2017
Consumers benefit from lower real travel costs, more routes, and will spend 0.9% of world GDP on air transport in 2017, an IATA report said. The average return fare (before surcharges and tax) of $351 in 2017 is forecast to be 63% lower than 22 years earlier, after adjusting for inflation, IATA`s chief economist Brian Pearce said at a presentation here yesterday. Consumers will see a substantial increase in the value they derive from air transport in 2017, including a further reduction in what they pay, after allowing for inflation. New destinations are forecast to rise by 4% this year, with frequencies up too; both boosting consumer benefits. Revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), which have been growing well above trend despite a sluggish world economy, are forecast to slow further in 2017 as the price stimulus from lower fuel prices starts to reverse.
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