The Lastest Macroeconomic News
20.08.2016 13:00 China and India: Twin engines of world economy
Global economic growth has slowed considerably in the past few years and black swan events have only aggravated matters. The US economy grew slower than forecast for the first two quarters of this year, and it is likely to grow at around 1.5% for the whole year. No wonder Chinese and Indian economies are getting the attention they are from the global community. However, some experts are worried that an untoward event might occur in China, hurting its development and, by consequence, the entire world. China is still the main engine driving global economic growth. During the first half of this year, its economy grew at the rate of 6.7%, reaching 34 trillion RMB. Seven hundred and seventeen million new jobs were created in urban areas, retail inflation rose to 2.1% and per capita income rose by 6.5% nationwide. The economic structure continued to improve, with the contribution of the service sector to the economy reaching 59.8%. Transformation of the economic development pattern saw progress.
18.08.2016 13:17 Russian economy may be exiting long recession
Bloomberg economists expect the Russian economy to emerge from its worst recession in two decades. Rising volumes of rail cargo and container transportation, as well as increasing demand for electricity, indicate that the recovery is likely to hold. The country`s gross domestic product in the second quarter of the current year will contract the least since the beginning of 2015, when the economy slipped into recession, according to the experts surveyed by Bloomberg. The GDP will reportedly shrink just 0.8 percent from a year earlier. "A fundamental infrastructure sector such as electricity offers a good reference point for the economic health of a country overall," said Vladimir Sklyar and Anastasia Tikhonova, analysts at Renaissance Capital.
16.08.2016 10:42 Fitch downgrades forecast for Ukraine`s economy growth
Fitch Ratings international rating agency downgrades their forecast for the Ukrainian economy growth in 2016 by 1%. Previously they forecast a 25 growth. This is reported by the agency on their official website. "Fitch expects only a moderate recovery of Ukraine`s economy. We forecast 1% GDP growth in 2016", the statement reads. Indicators of Ukraine`s economic growth in the medium term are also downgraded - to 2%. "We forecast 2% GDP growth over the medium term", Fitch representatives said. Earlier, in May, Fitch`s also downgraded its forecast for Ukraine`s economic growth to 2%, as compared to their earlier forecasts of 3.9%, due to limiting factors - loss incurred in export trade with Russia, war casualties in eastern Ukraine, low prices for key commodity markets and weak financial sector.
14.08.2016 12:46 World economic outlook dips to 3-year low
Confidence in the global economic situation and outlook has fallen to a three-year low, according to the latest survey of expert opinion by an influential German think tank. The Munich-based Ifo Institute said that its World Economic Survey fell by 4.5 index points to 86.0 in the third quarter, dipping to its lowest level in over three years at ten index points below its long-term average. The latest results published on Thursday signaled a reversal in confidence seen from respondents in the last quarter, Ifo said. "Experts` assessments of the current economic situation remain unfavorable, while their economic expectations are far more negative than last quarter. Sentiment in the world economy is subdued," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said in the latest report.
12.08.2016 14:34 Russia`s economy has been in recession for 18 months
Russia has just marked 18 months of a deep and painful recession. The country`s economy was 0.6% smaller in the second quarter of 2016 than the same period last year, according to official data published on Thursday. But there is a glimmer of hope for Russians who have seen their living standards suffer over the last year and a half -- the pace of the slowdown is starting ease. The economy shrank by 1.2% in the first quarter, following a 3.7% plunge in 2015. Russia has been hit by a double whammy of low oil prices and economic sanctions, and has not grown for six consecutive quarters.
10.08.2016 18:35 JPMorgan: UK to shrink in Q3 as world GDP accelerates
Britain is set to be the only major advanced economy to fall into reverse gear in the third quarter even as the wider the global economy is expected to shrug off any adverse effects from the Brexit vote, according to JPMorgan. In its first estimate of third quarter GDP, the investment bank expects the world economy to accelerate by 2.5 per cent in the three months to September, better than the 2.1 per cent recorded in the previous quarter. Following its decision to exit the EU, the UK will slump into a 0.5 per cent annualized contraction, before rebounding by 0.5 per cent at the end of 2016, forecasts JPMorgan`s “nowcast” indicator.
08.08.2016 12:13 EIA: Declining oil revenues in Russia are adversely affecting its regional neighbors
The Russian economy, already weakened by the imposition of Ukraine-related sanctions by the United States and the European Union, has been further damaged by low crude oil prices since the end of 2014. In 2015, Russia was the world`s second-largest producer of petroleum and natural gas, and the oil and natural gas sector accounted for approximately 8% of Russia`s gross domestic product (GDP), according to IHS Markit. However, in conjunction with both lower oil prices and international sanctions, Russia has recently experienced five consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, representing that country`s deepest economic downturn since 2008 - 09. While consumers in many countries are benefiting from lower oil prices, declines in Russian economic activity are also having an adverse effect on economic growth in many neighboring countries by reducing remittances from migrant populations working in Russia. Approximately 8% of the Russia`s total inhabitants are migrants (foreign-born populations) according to the United Nations Population Division,1 with the vast majority of migrants coming from Eastern Europe and Central Asia according to the most recent World Bank statistics. These migrants often send a portion of their earnings back to their families or other residents in their country of origin, which are referred to as personal remittances. In some developing countries, remittances are a significant source of purchasing power. Under such circumstances, slower growth or outright declines in remittances can negatively affect the economies of countries dependent on them and, in turn, potentially slow their oil consumption growth.
06.08.2016 11:58 Russia`s inflation just plunged to its lowest level in over 2 years
Russia`s inflation just plunged to its lowest level in over two years. The headline inflation figure fell to 7.2% year-over-year in July, down from 7.5% in June, according to the Federal State Statistics Service. This is the lowest rate since March 2014 - around when Russia annexed Crimea — and below economists` expectations of a slight dip to 7.4%. Assuming that there`s no huge uptick in inflation in August, this suggests that the Central Bank of Russia could start easing again at its next meeting in September.
04.08.2016 13:56 Japan to miss FY2020 GDP target of 600tn yen
Japan will fail to meet its goal of achieving in fiscal 2020 nominal gross domestic product of 600 trillion yen (ˆ5.2 trillion) even in fiscal 2024 if growth remains sluggish, the government`s projections showed on Tuesday, adding pressure on policymakers struggling to revive the economy. The world`s third-largest economy now expects nominal GDP of 551 trillion yen in the fiscal year beginning in April 2020 assuming the current pace of growth, the cabinet office said. Japan also expects to have a primary deficit of 9.2 trillion yen if growth remains weak, and fail to reach its target of a primary budget surplus even in fiscal 2024.
02.08.2016 14:08 We need a new Marshall Plan to reinvigorate the global economy
The mounting evidence against the failure of economic policies around the world is becoming difficult to ignore. Canada`s lacklustre performance is only part of the dismal global picture: Europe`s economy is a disaster, as are those of some of the biggest developing countries. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have recently revised growth forecasts downward for 2016 and 2017. In light of IMF reports claiming that austerity policies do more harm than good, the 30-year economic experiment with unfettered free-market policies is coming to an end. Despite repeated promises to bring prosperity to the masses, neoliberalism has proven to be a failure. It has undisputedly benefited the very few and left a disenfranchised, marginalized, angry working class in its wake - and these people are quickly gaining political clout. The failure of fiscal austerity is apparent and has had a tremendous negative impact not only on output and growth, but also on wealth inequalities, wages, unemployment, labour participation, job quality and the environment. The solution often proposed by politicians, technocrats and policy wonks is more austerity, betraying their limited understanding of the real world. Monetary policy has clearly run out of steam.
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