The Lastest Macroeconomic News
23.12.2016 13:28 Russia to experience another economic collapse in 2017?
The devaluation of the Russian rouble is inevitable, supervisor of "Stolypin Club" program, Yakov Mirkin believes. According to the specialist, Russia currently experiences the crisis scenario of 1998, 2009 and 2014. According to Bloomberg analysts, rouble assets may ensure the yield of 15 percent for investors by the end of 2017. In late 2016, during only three months, the profitability of investments in rouble assets made up seven percent, which was the highest rate among 31 basic currencies of the world. Borrowing dollars at low interest rates in foreign markets, investors profit by investing in Russia. This is due to the high key rate of the Bank of Russia and the more or less stable rouble. However, according to Yakov Mirkin, this is not a positive trend. The expert believes that Russia has every reason to remain concerned. According to Mirkin, Russia may soon experience another "explosive wave" of devaluation of the national currency that would repeat the previous scenarios of the collapse of the Russian rouble.
21.12.2016 11:45 Stability needed next year for stronger global economy
For China and the world to witness stronger economic growth next year, one thing is needed: stability. For an international market trapped in fluctuations during a year of surprising events, a new direction in 2017 is a must, something discussed at a recently ended annual economic policy meeting in Beijing. "Seeking progress while maintaining stability" was the main theme of this year`s Central Economic Work Conference, according to a statement released by the conference. Economic priorities for 2017 were also be hammered out. With a gross domestic product (GDP) accounting for over 15 percent of the global total, China`s growth at 6.7 percent in the third quarter, or between 6.5 percent and 7 percent annually, represents a natural and significant contribution to global economic stability.
19.12.2016 14:05 Russia holds rate but will consider cut in first half 2017
Russia`s central bank left its key policy rate at 10.0 percent but said it “will consider an opportunity of cutting the key rate in the first half of 2017” as the trend towards a sustainable decline in consumer prices takes root. The guidance and decision by the Bank of Russia`s was in line with its commitment from the previous board meeting in October that it would maintain the rate throughout this year to anchor the downward trend in inflation and then potentially cut the rate in the first half of 2017. The Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points in June, the first cut since July 2015, and since then inflation has decelerated and the exchange rate of the ruble appreciated. But the central bank said the decline in inflation was partly due to temporary factors, including the higher ruble and higher-than-expected oil prices that have helped keep Russian assets attractive and a good harvest that helped ease food inflation.
17.12.2016 18:05 Japan, Russia Unveil $2.5 Billion in Economic Deals
Japan launched a fresh effort Friday to overcome a deadlock in a territorial dispute with Russia by announcing bilateral economic deals worth ¥300 billion ($2.5 billion). The deals, in sectors such as energy, health care and transport, are part of a push by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to soften Moscow`s resistance to Tokyo`s claims on four islands to Japan`s north that are administered by Russia. The islands were seized from Japan by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II and are now considered by Russia to be an integral part of its territory. Following a second day of summit talks between Mr. Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two sides also said they may expand visa-free travel for Japanese former residents of the islands and agreed on a joint study into the possibility of joint economic development of the territory.
15.12.2016 18:33 Rising Risks Could Cost Global Cities $1.17 Trillion of GDP in 2017
The costs of major shocks to the global economy from natural and manmade threats could put at risk $1.17 trillion of the total projected GDP of the world`s major cities in 2017, according to the findings of a report compiled by the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies (CCRS) at the Cambridge University Judge Business School. Cautioning that a period of heightened risk lies ahead, the Centre for Risk Studies revealed its Global Risk Index of GDP Risk for 300 leading cities and expected losses from 22 different types of shocks is estimated to rise above a 10-year expected baseline of 1.48 percent of annual GDP to approximately 1.51 percent of the projected GDP of $77.7 trillion in 2017. And that number is expected to rise in the subsequent two years, 2018 and 2019.
13.12.2016 11:44 Migrants contributed 9.4% to global GDP in 2015
Cross border migrants, who made up 3.4 percent of the world`s population in 2015, contributed 9.4 percent ($6.7 trillion) to its GDP, a report by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) titled `People on the move: Global migration`s Impact and Opportunity`, revealed on Thursday. The subject of migration has featured prominently in several important global events over the past year, from the Brexit vote to the American presidential elections, and spurred in part by the refugee crisis in the Middle East. “Despite the misgivings and controversy surrounding it, cross-border migration is a natural outcome of a more interconnected world and a global labour market,” the report, which also suggests that a vast majority of migrants are economic migrants and not refugees or asylum seekers, stated.
11.12.2016 12:20 IATA expects 0.9% of world GDP to be spent on air transport in 2017
Consumers benefit from lower real travel costs, more routes, and will spend 0.9% of world GDP on air transport in 2017, an IATA report said. The average return fare (before surcharges and tax) of $351 in 2017 is forecast to be 63% lower than 22 years earlier, after adjusting for inflation, IATA`s chief economist Brian Pearce said at a presentation here yesterday. Consumers will see a substantial increase in the value they derive from air transport in 2017, including a further reduction in what they pay, after allowing for inflation. New destinations are forecast to rise by 4% this year, with frequencies up too; both boosting consumer benefits. Revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), which have been growing well above trend despite a sluggish world economy, are forecast to slow further in 2017 as the price stimulus from lower fuel prices starts to reverse.
08.12.2016 12:03 Why a strengthening dollar is bad for the world economy
THE world`s most important currency is flexing its muscles. In the three weeks following Donald Trump`s victory in America`s presidential elections, the dollar had one of its sharpest rises ever against a basket of rich-country peers. It is now 40% above its lows in 2011. It has strengthened relative to emerging-market currencies, too. The yuan has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since 2008; anxious Chinese officials are said to be pondering tighter restrictions on foreign takeovers by domestic firms to stem the downward pressure. India, which has troubles of its own making (see article), has seen its currency reach an all-time low against the greenback. Other Asian currencies have plunged to depths not seen since the financial crisis of 1997-98.
06.12.2016 10:55 Oil-rich Russia sees economic growth ahead
The economy of oil-rich Russia could catch up with the rest of the world in about 10 years if the conditions are right, the country`s finance minister said. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the economy could grow at around 3 percent by 2025 provided policies are in place to support lower inflation, lower interest rates and a stable tax regime. "This is a very ambitious task, since we planned the growth from zero to 1.5 percent for three years ahead," he was quoted by Russian news agency Tass as saying. "This is a new target, a new task." Central Bank Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said the rate of inflation is expected to be close to its low-end outlook of around 5.5 percent this year and the International Monetary Fund said there are prospects for "modest" recovery starting in 2017.
04.12.2016 11:30 OPEC Deal Could Be a Boon to World Economy Amid Shifting Dynamics
Traditional economics says a boost in oil prices - they rose more than 9% to over $49 a barrel Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut output - is bad for global growth because it erodes consumer buying power, especially in the world`s largest economies. But that view is built on experiences of the past. This time may be different, given changing dynamics in the world economy. “Higher oil prices are good for growth,” said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs. First, higher prices should help stimulate growth in the world`s largest economic engine, the U.S. It is one of the top three oil producers in the world, pumping more than nine million barrels a day, or 10% of global consumption. As prices fell over the last two years, investment in the sector pulled back and output sank by roughly a million barrels a day. But as prices picked up in recent months in anticipation of an OPEC deal, investment in the industry has risen. That should help push down unemployment further, pressure wages and fuel the U.S. economic expansion.