The Lastest Macroeconomic News
07.06.2016 14:24 Uncertainty clouds outlook for the global economy
The prospects for a sustained and strong recovery in the world economy are increasingly in doubt. The outlook for global growth remains clouded as economic risk is compounded by political uncertainty. Last week the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) said the pace of the recovery in the euro area may be slowing; although the bank has revised upwards its growth forecast for 2016 from 1.4 to 1.6 per cent. Nevertheless, Mario Draghi considers the risk to growth is “tilted to the downside”. Likewise, the OECD has warned that the global economy could stall this year. Excessively loose monetary policy employed to help boost growth, which began in the US and UK in 2009 and was followed later by the ECB, has resulted in historic low interest rates and huge purchases of sovereign debt by central banks. These measures, the OECD says, have been in place too long and may now be counter-productive.
05.06.2016 13:55 US economy adds fewest jobs in five years
In another indication of a deepening slump in the US economy, the Labor Department reported yesterday that the US economy added only 38,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly job growth since September 2010. The report was released merely two days after US President Barack Obama declared in a speech in Elkhart, Indiana that the belief, widespread in the US population, that the economy is doing poorly is a “myth.” “By almost every economic measure, America is better off,” Obama declared. The latest figures sharply contradict such claims. Summarizing the findings of the report, Laura Rosner, an economist at BNP Paribas, told the Associated Press, “The shockingly low payrolls gain in May provides further evidence that the economy is showing clear signs of slowing.” In addition to the dismal rate of payrolls growth, the Labor Department said a massive 459,000 people left the workforce last month. In other words, 12 times more people gave up looking for work than got a job last month. Simultaneously, the Labor Department reported the number of people working part-time, but who would prefer to have full-time work, increased by 468,000 in May. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points, after an earlier 0.2 percent decline in April, to a nearly four-decade low of 62.6 percent.
03.06.2016 21:00 OECD Warns of Faltering Economic Growth, Cuts Forecasts
The world`s economy is ensnared in weak growth and vulnerable to falling into another deep downturn unless governments take urgent action, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said. Releasing its semiannual economic outlook, the Paris-based organization amplified its call for governments to stimulate their economies by expanding investment and implementing policies that fuel competition, increase labor mobility and strengthen financial stability. “The need is urgent,” OECD chief economist Catherine Mann said. “The longer the global economy remains in the low-growth trap, the more difficult it will be to break the negative feedback loops,” she added. The OECD called on governments in February to head off risks to the global economy by ramping up investment spending. The starker warning in the May economic outlook indicates little effective action has been taken and highlights the further dwindling of prospects for more sturdy growth. In the most recent sign of reluctance among major economies to embark on fiscal stimulus, the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations stopped short of announcing coordinated action at a meeting last week. The OECD said global economic forecasts have fallen by around 0.3 percentage points in six months. The organization lowered its growth forecast for the combined economy of the 34 OECD countries to 1.8% this year and 2.1% in 2017 from 2.2% and 2.3% respectively in November. The OECD now expects the U.S. economy to grow 1.8% this year and 2.2% in 2017, instead of 2% and 2.2% as it forecast in February and 2.5% and 2.4% in November.
01.06.2016 19:41 Russia`s hard times aren`t over yet
Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea, introduction of Western sanctions, and fall in oil prices, Russia`s economy entered a recession in 2015. The consensus among Russia watchers is that the economy will only start to grow in 2017, but even then the growth rate will be relatively low — between 1 and 2 percent per year. The reason for this is threefold. First, the decline in oil prices has played a major role. The Russian economy is still very dependent on oil prices. Even though Russia`s central bank has moved to a floating-exchange-rate framework, Russia could not avoid the recession, given the 50-percent drop in oil prices. The ruble depreciation buffered the shock but could not have shielded the economy completely. Second, Western sanctions reinforced the impact of the decline in oil prices. If not for the sanctions, the Russian government, banks, and corporations could have borrowed their way out of the crisis (especially given that the overall external debt was not large). Third, the Russian economy was not in good shape even before 2014. The post-Great Recession recovery ran out of steam already in 2013. After reaching pre-crisis GDP level in mid-2012, Russian economic growth started to slow down. By early 2014, the Russian economy started to stagnate with the growth rate oscillating around zero.
31.05.2016 17:46 Russia`s economic dilemma: Are higher oil prices a blessing or a curse?
With world oil prices rising, the International Monetary Fund has marginally improved its forecast of the restoration of Russia`s economy. According to the IMF, in 2016 the country`s GDP will fall by 1.5 percent instead of the 1.8 percent earlier predicted. In turn, in 2017 Russia`s economy will grow by 1 percent instead of 0.8 percent. This is surely good news. However, it also raises concerns among a whole series of Russian politicians and economists. The growth of oil prices in Russia strengthens the national currency (against which the Central Bank is consistently taking measures) and drastically cheapens imports. Consequently, this creates a threat for exporters and makes production in Russia disadvantageous. Moreover, the growth in oil prices threatens to stop the country from carrying out economic reforms, without which, in the view of many experts, the Russian economy will not be able to develop effectively. Earlier, Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina remarked that even with a price of $100 a barrel Russia`s GDP would be unable to grow by more than 1.5-2 percent if structural reforms are not implemented.
30.05.2016 10:57 The Russian Economic Revolution That Never Was
Russia`s economic strategy is in disarray. The government has already cut its federal budget for 2016 twice, and the Kremlin has still not made a final decision on this year`s spending. After muddling through two years of economic hardship, government members, silovarchs and technocrats are squabbling over how to escape a prolonged crisis. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin resurrected his Presidium of the Economic Council to come up with a plan for the next three years. The presidium has been dormant for two years. Originally composed of dozens of economists, statesmen and entrepreneurs, the group proved too large and diverse to agree on a future economic and financial strategy for Russia. In its latest iteration, the presidium has shrunk to just six members representing Russia`s three primary economic camps.
28.05.2016 11:15 Is G7 better without Russia?
Leaders of the world`s seven most industrialised nations - the US, the UK, France, Japan, Italy, Canada and Germany - meet on 26-27 May at the G7 summit in Ise-Shima. The slowdown in the global economy, terrorism, problems in the South China Sea, but also health issues and climate change, are on the agenda. "The most delicate issues are the security issues, including the South China Sea, that are broadly: what do we do about China as a whole," says John Kirton director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto, speaking from the conference centre in Ise-Shima. "Other issues include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, human rights, the Chinese economy, its fragile financial system, its initiatives on climate change, problems of cyberspace and North Korea. The big question on China is if the G7 leaders stand united in their approach to China in its role as a host of the G20 summit coming up in Hangzhou China on 4-5 September."
27.05.2016 19:59 Russian output and demand: Waiting for green shoots
Russia`s economy continues to contract, while signs of green shoots are in the air. Russia`s Q1 16 preliminary GDP data shows the economy contracted 1.2% y/y, while consensus expected a 2.0% y/y slump and we expected a 1.5% y/y contraction. Seasonally adjusted monthly data show the economy shrank 0.1% in March, while hovering at zero for 2M 16. The economy`s adjustment to `the new normal` of a lower oil price and western sanctions goes on, as a freely floating RUB and the import substitution programme are helping local industries and private consumers to switch to domestic goods and services on highly increased price sensitivity.
26.05.2016 14:02 Russia Taps Global Credit Markets
Russia on Tuesday tapped international debt markets for the first time since the West applied sanctions two years ago in a move officials touted as a vote of confidence in the country`s financial health. But Moscow raised just over half of the amount expected as a number of global portfolio managers didn`t participate in the bond sale, citing concerns about compliance and issues over the settlement of the bonds. Russia`s finance ministry said it sold $1.75 billion of so-called Eurobonds amid demand of $7 billion. The Russian government`s borrowing plan envisages raising $3 billion in global markets this year to help cover a budget shortfall caused by weak prices for crude oil, Russia`s main export and a large source of state revenue. The bonds were sold to yield 4.75% after initial indications of 4.65% to 4.9%. More than 70% of the bond was purchased by foreign investors, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. “This is the group we focused on,” Mr. Siluanov said. “We are satisfied with the placement.” Large global banks, unwilling to irk U.S. and European authorities that have sanctioned Russia over its annexation of Crimea and intervention in Ukraine, declined to participate as underwriters of the offering. VTB Capital, the investment arm of Russia`s No. 2 state-owned lender VTB Group, which came under sanctions, was the sole organizer of the bond.
25.05.2016 12:23 Russia`s economy will return to growth by end of 2016
Russia`s economy will return to growth by the end of 2016, Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said at a meeting with representatives of business community of Slovakia. "We expect that in the end of the second quarter we will return to growth and in general we expect that by the end of the year the dynamics of GDP will be about zero," he said. Earlier TASS reported referring to the documents for the meeting of the Economic Council under the Russian President, the Economic Development Ministry states stagnation of the Russian economy but believe that the decline is largely over, and the economic cycle is close to the lowest point. The ministry marks signs of recovery in the Russian economy, and expects that it will continue in the medium term. According to the Federal Statistics Service, in the first quarter Russian GDP decline by 1.2%. The Economic Development Ministry predicts GDP decline of 0.2% by the end of the year. Ulyukayev said Russia`s GDP fell 0.7% in April 2016.
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