The Lastest Macroeconomic News
10.08.2016 18:35 JPMorgan: UK to shrink in Q3 as world GDP accelerates
Britain is set to be the only major advanced economy to fall into reverse gear in the third quarter even as the wider the global economy is expected to shrug off any adverse effects from the Brexit vote, according to JPMorgan. In its first estimate of third quarter GDP, the investment bank expects the world economy to accelerate by 2.5 per cent in the three months to September, better than the 2.1 per cent recorded in the previous quarter. Following its decision to exit the EU, the UK will slump into a 0.5 per cent annualized contraction, before rebounding by 0.5 per cent at the end of 2016, forecasts JPMorgan`s “nowcast” indicator.
08.08.2016 12:13 EIA: Declining oil revenues in Russia are adversely affecting its regional neighbors
The Russian economy, already weakened by the imposition of Ukraine-related sanctions by the United States and the European Union, has been further damaged by low crude oil prices since the end of 2014. In 2015, Russia was the world`s second-largest producer of petroleum and natural gas, and the oil and natural gas sector accounted for approximately 8% of Russia`s gross domestic product (GDP), according to IHS Markit. However, in conjunction with both lower oil prices and international sanctions, Russia has recently experienced five consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, representing that country`s deepest economic downturn since 2008 - 09. While consumers in many countries are benefiting from lower oil prices, declines in Russian economic activity are also having an adverse effect on economic growth in many neighboring countries by reducing remittances from migrant populations working in Russia. Approximately 8% of the Russia`s total inhabitants are migrants (foreign-born populations) according to the United Nations Population Division,1 with the vast majority of migrants coming from Eastern Europe and Central Asia according to the most recent World Bank statistics. These migrants often send a portion of their earnings back to their families or other residents in their country of origin, which are referred to as personal remittances. In some developing countries, remittances are a significant source of purchasing power. Under such circumstances, slower growth or outright declines in remittances can negatively affect the economies of countries dependent on them and, in turn, potentially slow their oil consumption growth.
06.08.2016 11:58 Russia`s inflation just plunged to its lowest level in over 2 years
Russia`s inflation just plunged to its lowest level in over two years. The headline inflation figure fell to 7.2% year-over-year in July, down from 7.5% in June, according to the Federal State Statistics Service. This is the lowest rate since March 2014 - around when Russia annexed Crimea — and below economists` expectations of a slight dip to 7.4%. Assuming that there`s no huge uptick in inflation in August, this suggests that the Central Bank of Russia could start easing again at its next meeting in September.
04.08.2016 13:56 Japan to miss FY2020 GDP target of 600tn yen
Japan will fail to meet its goal of achieving in fiscal 2020 nominal gross domestic product of 600 trillion yen (ˆ5.2 trillion) even in fiscal 2024 if growth remains sluggish, the government`s projections showed on Tuesday, adding pressure on policymakers struggling to revive the economy. The world`s third-largest economy now expects nominal GDP of 551 trillion yen in the fiscal year beginning in April 2020 assuming the current pace of growth, the cabinet office said. Japan also expects to have a primary deficit of 9.2 trillion yen if growth remains weak, and fail to reach its target of a primary budget surplus even in fiscal 2024.
02.08.2016 14:08 We need a new Marshall Plan to reinvigorate the global economy
The mounting evidence against the failure of economic policies around the world is becoming difficult to ignore. Canada`s lacklustre performance is only part of the dismal global picture: Europe`s economy is a disaster, as are those of some of the biggest developing countries. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have recently revised growth forecasts downward for 2016 and 2017. In light of IMF reports claiming that austerity policies do more harm than good, the 30-year economic experiment with unfettered free-market policies is coming to an end. Despite repeated promises to bring prosperity to the masses, neoliberalism has proven to be a failure. It has undisputedly benefited the very few and left a disenfranchised, marginalized, angry working class in its wake - and these people are quickly gaining political clout. The failure of fiscal austerity is apparent and has had a tremendous negative impact not only on output and growth, but also on wealth inequalities, wages, unemployment, labour participation, job quality and the environment. The solution often proposed by politicians, technocrats and policy wonks is more austerity, betraying their limited understanding of the real world. Monetary policy has clearly run out of steam.
31.07.2016 14:06 U.S. GDP grows a weak 1.2 percent in second quarter
Growth in the U.S. economy was sluggish again in the spring, dashing expectations for a robust rebound after a tough winter. Stronger consumer spending was offset by weakness in housing construction and a big slowdown in the pace that businesses restocked store shelves. The Commerce Department said Friday that the gross domestic product - the broadest measure of the economy - grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. That was far below the 2.6 percent GDP growth rate that economists had been forecasting. The government also revised down its estimate of first-quarter growth to 0.8 percent from 1.1 percent. The economy has now grown at lackluster rates for three straight quarters. Despite the worse-than-expected performance in the second quarter, analysts said they remained hopeful that the economy will rebound in the second half of this year as some of the headwinds start to abate. Analysts said businesses will likely ramp up inventories in the coming months.
29.07.2016 12:43 Russian Economy Edges Near End of Recession as Contraction Eases
Russia`s economy contracted the least since it slipped into recession at the start of last year as industry and farming added to oil`s biggest quarterly gain since 2009 to steady the world`s biggest energy exporter. Gross domestic product shrank 0.6 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after a decline of 1.2 percent in the previous three months, the Economy Ministry said Thursday in a monthly report on its website. The Federal Statistics Service will publish its first estimate next month. GDP in June slipped 0.5 percent from a year earlier and was flat on a seasonally adjusted basis for the first time since February, according to the ministry.
28.07.2016 13:45 China GDP Sends Troubling Signal on Economic Reform
China maintained its growth pace of 6.7% in the second quarter - a bad sign to those who were looking for indications of economic restructuring. Economists say a slower growth rate in the second quarter over the first quarter`s 6.7% pace would have sent a welcome signal that China was tackling excess industrial production, rising corporate debt and state-owned enterprise reform. Instead, by ramping up government spending and opening the credit taps, Beijing is likely to fuel overcapacity and see private companies crowded out by risk-averse state banks and bloated state companies. This comes despite repeated calls by Prime Minister Li Keqiang and other senior officials to foster innovation, entrepreneurship and structural reform in order to shift the economy from credit-fueled infrastructure to high-tech industry and services.
26.07.2016 19:28 Russian economy recovering slowly
Oil price stability offers some support for economic growth in Russia, though finance officials expects short-term pressures to endure. With oil holding relatively stable, there are few restrictions on meeting inflationary goals by the end of next year, a Russian finance minister said. "Inflation [in 2016] will be in the range of between 5.5 percent and 6 percent," Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin said Monday. "This is how it is going now."Crude oil prices moved from above $100 per barrel in 2014 to below $30 per barrel in early 2016 because the global economy was too slow to take on the excess supply on the market. That price collapse hurt economies like Russia that depend in part on oil for revenue. With oil prices holding relatively stable at around $45 per barrel since May, the Central Bank of Russia said growth was "imminent." By the bank`s estimate, growth of 1.6 percent in gross domestic product is expected next year.
24.07.2016 21:41 Russian economy minister expects positive GDP dynamics in nearest future
Dynamics of Russian GDP will become positive in the nearest future, Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev said this week at the meeting with Japan`s business community. "The situation in the real sector of the economy is improving. While production output declined 3.7% last year, its contraction lowered to 1.2% in the first quarter of 2016 and 0.8 in May. We expect GDP dynamics to become positive in the coming future," minister said. Dynamics of industrial production has already become positive, Ulyukayev said. "This pertains to producing branches and to the processing industry since May of this year. Nevertheless, many problems remain and we need to use the potential definitely and objectively existing in our trade and economic relations," minister added.