The Lastest Macroeconomic News

19.05.2016 11:28 Kazakhstan`s Doing Well, now about those Public Finances

As a highly globally integrated, resource-rich, upper-middle income country, Kazakhstan has been facing significant challenges in the current global environment. Kazakhstan`s major challenges include managing its public finances to preserve fiscal stability and generating broad-based economic growth. According to the World Trade Organization, Kazakhstan`s total trade to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was 69% in 2014, with per capita trade of $8,720. It exhibited a relatively large surplus of $37 billion on merchandise trade, with nearly nine-tenths of the exports under the “fuels and mining” category, of which about three-fourths were destined for the European Union. In contrast, little over four-fifths of its imports were in the “manufacturers” category, with the Russian Federation accounting for one-third, and the European Union accounting for around one-fifth of the total imports. In 2014, Kazakhstan had a service trade deficit of $6.3 billion. This suggests that while Kazakhstan is highly integrated globally, its trade profile lacks diversification, and it is vulnerable to slowdowns in oil and metal cycles, as is currently being experienced globally.

17.05.2016 21:06 UN: Weak world economic growth lingers, with only modest improvement seen

With little prospects for a turnaround in 2016, growth in the world economy remains weak, posing a challenge to the implementation of development targets, a new United Nations report has found. According to the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2016 report, launched today at UN Headquarters in New York by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, world gross product will grow by just 2.4 per cent in 2016, the same pace as in 2015, marking a downward revision of 0.5 percentage points from UN forecasts released in December 2015. “The report underscores the need for a more balanced policy mix to rejuvenate global growth and create an enabling environment to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,” Lenni Montiel, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development in a said. Specifically, the report found that persistent weakness in aggregate demand in developed economies remains a drag on global growth, while low commodity prices, mounting fiscal and current account imbalances and policy tightening have further dampened prospects for many commodity-exporting economies in Africa, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Latin America and the Caribbean. This has been compounded by severe weather-related shocks, political challenges and large capital outflows in many developing regions.

17.05.2016 11:36 Kazakhstan attracting $1 billion to improve competitiveness of economy

Kazakhstan intends to attract a loan of $1 billion from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD is a part of the World Bank Group). The relevant agreement that was signed Feb. 17 with the IBRD has been ratified by Majlis (lower house of the Kazakh parliament) May 11, Majlis`s press service said. The loan will be used to finance the development policy in macroeconomic management and to increase the competitiveness of Kazakhstan`s economy. The loan will allow to support main priorities of the country`s social and economic development and the implementation of strategic measures of the Kazakh government to stimulate the economy and promote economic growth.

16.05.2016 11:51 China economy eases in April, sparking worries on rebound

China`s investment, factory output and retail sales all grew more slowly than expected in April, adding to doubts about whether the world`s second-largest economy is stabilizing. Growth in factory output cooled to 6 percent in April, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday, disappointing analysts who expected it to rise to 6.5 percent on an annual basis after an increase of 6.8 percent the prior month. China`s fixed-asset investment growth eased to 10.5 percent year-on-year in the January-April period, missing market expectations of 10.9 percent, and down from the first quarter`s 10.7 percent. Fixed investment by private firms continued to slow, indicating private businesses remain skeptical of economic prospects. Investment by private firms rose 5.2 percent year-on-year in January-April, down from 5.7 percent growth in the first quarter.

13.05.2016 14:13 Eurozone GDP grew worse than expected, Germany`s GDP growth jumped past forecasts

European statistics agency Eurostat said the single currency union`s economy grew 0.5% in the first three months of 2016, representing a downward revision from its initial estimate of 0.6%. This meant the Eurozone economy grew 1.5% year-on-year, rather than the 1.6% previously thought. GDP expanded in all of the Eurozone countries which provided data except Greece and Latvia, which shrank by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. Outside of the bloc, the economies of Hungary and Poland also contracted in the first three months of the year. German economic growth surged at the start of the year, as strength in domestic demand offset weakness in exports amply, but analysts expected growth to settle down going forward. Gross domestic product in the euro area`s largest economy expanded at a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter clip in the first three months of 2016, according to the country`s statistics office. That followed growth of 0.3% in the final quarter of 2015 and was higher than the 0.6% which economists had penciled in. In comparison to a year ago German GDP grew by 1.6%, up from the 1.3% clip seen at the tail-end of 2015.

12.05.2016 11:23 Bank of Canada: World economy faces risks, but growth likely

While the global economy faces a number of risks, including the potential for a shock from China, the most likely scenario is that growth continues, with some headwinds starting to slowly fade, a senior Bank of Canada official said on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the world economy`s potential growth will be lower than it was 10 years ago, partly due to demographic shifts that policy cannot fully address in the short term, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins said. “There are a lot of downside risks, but I would say though that the most likely thing is that the economy is going to keep growing,” Wilkins told a panel. “There`s not the typical inflation pressures you see that would result in very abrupt increases in interest rates and that`s often what triggers downturns.”

10.05.2016 20:09 Russia`s Gloomy Prospects

Russia`s economic prospects are looking increasingly grim. Last year, plunging energy prices and international sanctions contributed to a 3.7% fall in GDP. Real wages in the country plummeted by around 10%. This year, the negative trend is expected to continue. In 2016, public spending on education and health care is slated to decline by 8%. The Kremlin`s desultory attempts at diversifying the Russian economy have largely failed. Labor productivity remains chronically low, and investment - foreign and domestic - has dried up. Sadly, a turnaround is unlikely. Under current conditions, neither higher energy prices nor the lifting of sanctions would likely be enough to reinvigorate the country`s moribund economy.

07.05.2016 14:11 These 4 things could rattle the global economy

After the darkness at the start to 2016, the world economy actually looks pretty good right now. Despite a bit of softness, US economic data has been surprising to the upside over the last couple of months. The stock market (albeit with a misstep Tuesday), has also been trending up. Across the world, from emerging markets to Europe, everything looks not great but pretty solid. Don`t get too comfortable, however, said Citi`s global economics team this week. "None of the structural headwinds that seem to have plagued the global economy in recent years (a mix of excessive indebtedness, deteriorating demographics, rising political uncertainty as well as the end of the China growth miracle and the commodity supercycle) have been resolved," said Ebrahim Rahbari, Willem Buiter, and Cesar Rojas in a note. The Citi economists cited short-term reasons they are concerned for global growth.

05.05.2016 11:20 The global economy is in bad shape and getting worse

The International Monetary Fund and others have recently revised downward their forecasts for global growth - yet again. Little wonder: The world economy has few bright spots, and many that are dimming rapidly. Among advanced economies, the United States has just experienced two quarters of growth averaging 1%. Further monetary easing has boosted a cyclical recovery in the eurozone, though potential growth in most countries remains well below 1%. In Japan, “Abenomics” is running out of steam, with the economy slowing since mid-2015 and now close to recession. In the United Kingdom, uncertainty surrounding the June referendum on continued European Union membership is leading firms to keep hiring and capital spending on hold. And other advanced economies - such as Canada, Australia, Norway - face headwinds from low commodity prices. Things are not much better in most emerging economies. Among the five BRIC countries, two (Brazil and Russia) are in recession, one (South Africa) is barely growing, another (China) is experiencing a sharp structural slowdown, and India is doing well only because - in the words of its central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan - in the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Many other emerging markets have slowed since 2013 as well, owing to weak external conditions, economic fragility (stemming from loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies in the good years), and, often, a move away from market-oriented reforms and toward variants of state capitalism.

03.05.2016 18:57 Ukraine`s economy will return to growth in 2016

A slight rise in GDP in annual terms is expected in Ukraine in January-March 2016, according to a report from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). "A further recovery of economic activity, in particular, a slight increase in GDP in annual terms will be observed in the first quarter of 2016 as expected," reads the document, the text of which has been posted on the National Bank`s website. As reported, the NBU keeps its forecast for real GDP growth at 1.1% in 2016 and 3% in 2017. The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in 2015 accelerated to 43.3% from 24.9% in 2014, while the fall of GDP accelerated to 9.9% from 6.6% respectively. The economy of Ukraine is expected to grow at a rate of 1.5 percent this year, down 0.5 percent from the prognosis made in October 2015, IMF said. Ukraine`s GDP contracted 9.9 percent, the country`s GDP growth is expected to stay at 1.5 percent in 2016, and reach 2.5 percent in 2017, Sputnik cited International Monetary Fund`s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report as saying.

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