The Lastest Macroeconomic News
22.03.2019 13:02 EBRD predicts 3.5-percent GDP growth for Kazakhstan in 2019
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Transition Report forecasts steady growth for the Kazakh economy, as major structural reforms are expected to improve the situation further. “Kazakhstan`s real GDP grew 4 percent in 2017 and a little bit more in 2018. This has been driven since 2017 primarily by exports and a recovery in private consumption has started to be a driver of GDP growth since 2018,” said EBRD Associate Director and Lead Regional Economist Hans Holzhacker. “Oil is a large part of exports,” he added. “Roughly 65 percent of exports in dollar terms are oil exports. There has been a significant increase since 2016. This peaked in the third quarter of 2018, mostly because prices have come down. There was also an increase in production, like a 5 percent increase in 2018 over 2017, as Kashagan started to produce more.” Private consumption has been a growth driver largely because real incomes finally started to improve last year. The solid growth, however, was neither driven nor accompanied by credit expansion, credit growth or the banking system as a whole.
20.03.2019 15:29 US economic growth is likely to slow sharply this year and next
U.S. economic growth is likely to slow sharply this year and next, according to respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, and weaker global growth and tariffs are seen as the major culprits. The average forecast for gross domestic product growth this year is just 2.3 percent, down from 2.44 percent expected in the January survey and a further slowing from the actual 3.1 percent year-over-year pace for the fourth quarter of 2018. Economic growth is seen stepping below 2 percent in 2020, according to the survey. The outlook for slower growth has prompted the 43 survey respondents to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year and next - barely forecasting one hike and some even seeing rate cuts on the horizon. Asked about the biggest threats to the U.S. expansion, slowing global growth and protectionist trade policies ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.
13.03.2019 21:28 Russia`s goods trade surplus up 20% in 2018 to $212bn
Russian customs reports that in 2018 the country`s goods trade surplus climbed to $212bn, or roughly 12% of GDP. Russia is now running a triple surplus again for the first time in years: trade, current account and federal budget. Both the budget and the current account surpluses are at record levels. The record trade surplus was driven partly by the rise in oil prices in 2018, but falling imports, especially falling food imports, played at least as important a role. Exports remain heavily weighted towards hydrocarbons, which totaled $260bn in December - more than half of Russia`s exports, with minerals and base metals making up another $48.7bn from the total of $461bn. Imports are half as much as Russia`s exports, which has led to the record current account surplus in 2018. Imports are more evenly distributed but the top four items – machinery ($80.7bn), chemicals ($32.4bn), vehicles ($28.4bn), and base metals ($18.5bn) – accounting for 70% of the total imports to Russia.
11.03.2019 23:16 Global Economy Hits Its Weakest Spell Since Financial Crisis
The global economy`s sharp loss of speed through 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago, according to Bloomberg Economics. Its new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1 percent on a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis, down from about 4 percent in the middle of last year. While there`s a chance that the economy may find a foothold and arrest the slowdown, “the risk is that downward momentum will be self-sustaining,” say economists Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik. The reasons for hope? The Federal Reserve`s decision to pause its interest-rate hikes, a U.S.-China trade truce and the fading of the shocks that battered Europe in 2018 could mean stabilization is around the corner. Other central banks have also stepped up, with the European Central Bank last week announcing new measures to help the economy through the current weakness.
28.02.2019 16:11 AI Will Add $15 Trillion To The World Economy By 2030
Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer the stuff of science fiction. The technology is already disrupting multiple industries, many of which impact you on a daily basis. Own an iPhone X? Its facial recognition system is powered by AI. Ever been redirected by Google Maps because of an accident or construction ahead? You guessed it: AI. And those are just a couple of small examples. By one estimate, AI contributed a whopping $2 trillion to global GDP last year. By 2030, it could be as much as $15.7 trillion, “making it the biggest commercial opportunity in today`s fast changing economy,” according to a recent report by PwC. “AI is the new electricity,” says Chinese-English computer scientist and entrepreneur Andrew Ng. “I can hardly imagine an industry which is not going to be transformed by AI.” Among the industries that have been fastest to adopt AI, according to PwC, are health care, automotive and financial services. Earlier and more accurate diagnostics, powered by AI, means earlier treatment of life-threatening diseases. Once on the market, self-driving cars will free up an estimated 300 hours the typical American spends driving every year. And more and more people are putting their trust in robo-advisors to manage their wealth.
26.02.2019 14:48 Asia Will Drive Global Economy In 2019
Asia will drive the global economy in 2019, according to an analysis of 40 major economies based on inflation and GDP growth forecasts by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The company`s analysis categorizes each country by "Low", "Moderate" and "High" GDP growth rate together with "High Inflationary Economies" during the period 2014-2018 (annual average). Principally located in Asia and accounting for more than half of the world`s GDP growth in 2019, high-growth economies include Indonesia, India, Malaysia, The Philippines, China, Turkey and Ireland. Amid the ongoing trade war with the US, which is likely to have a significant impact on the Chinese economy, the government has initiated a number of steps for sustaining the buoyancy of the economy. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has relaxed its restriction on large-scale investments by local government in May 2018, and in October 2018, the People`s Bank of China increased the refinancing and rediscounting quota by CNY150 billion (US$21.96 billion) to support small and micro enterprises.
22.02.2019 12:49 World Bank: Price tag for climate-smart infra is 4.5% of GDP
The World Bank on Thursday said developing countries like the Philippines should ramp up spending on “climate-smart” infrastructure to help stay on track to limit climate change to up to 2°C. In its “Beyond the Gap” report, the Washington-based multilateral lender said infrastructure spending of 4.5 percent of gross domestic product would enable universal access to water, sanitation and electricity, as well as better mobility, food security and flood protection. “Our analysis clearly shows that developing countries can build the climate-smart infrastructure they need by spending around 4.5 percent of GDP. The good news is this is close to what many countries already spend,” said Kristalina Georgieva, interim president of the World Bank Group. “With the right choices, infrastructure can be built that helps achieve globally agreed emissions targets. The focus must be on smarter and more resilient investments, not necessarily more money,” Georgieva added.
14.02.2019 18:00 German economy narrowly avoids recession
Germany`s economy just about avoided falling into recession during the final three months of last year. Europe`s largest economy registered zero growth during the fourth quarter of 2018, the country`s Federal Statistics Office said. That means it avoided two consecutive quarters of contraction, which is the usual definition of a recession. A weak trade performance dragged on the economy, and consumer spending remained subdued. The zero growth recorded in the October-to-December period followed a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter. Reasons for slower growth last year include a slowdown in the global economy and a weaker car sector, with German consumers less willing to buy new cars amid confusion over new emission standards. In addition, low water levels, particularly in the Rhine, affected growth by holding back movement of some goods.
07.02.2019 15:33 Is Japan`s Sun Rising?
At a time of rising populism and authoritarianism around the world, Japan stands out as a relative island of social and economic stability. And though it owes its current situation to unique economic and geopolitical circumstances, it might still have something to teach other developed countries. When I participated in the Chatham House/Daiwa Research Institute conference on the post-Brexit Japan-UK relationship in Tokyo last month, it was my first visit back to Japan since my departure from Goldman Sachs almost six years ago. Prior to this trip, I had been visiting the country regularly since 1988, so it was helpful to see things from a slightly more detached perspective. By and large, Japan in 2019 feels relatively stable when compared to other advanced economies. A decade from now, I would not be surprised if it continues to show the highest real (inflation-adjusted) per capita GDP growth rate in the G7. True, Japan`s annual GDP growth has averaged just 1.1% so far this decade; but its declining population and shrinking workforce is already translating into stronger per capita performance. In fact, given the country`s demographic challenges, it might well be outperforming its long-term growth potential.
30.01.2019 13:44 Italy central bank slashes 2019 GDP growth forecast
The Italian economy will grow just 0.6 percent this year, the Bank of Italy said, slashing a projection of 1.0 percent made a month ago due to trade tensions and a weaker investment outlook. The latest forecasts are bad news for the radical government which took office in June last year and is trying to boost the flagging economy without falling foul of European Union budget rules. In its quarterly economic bulletin the central bank said activity had slowed more sharply than expected over the second half of last year, which will produce a negative carry-over effect on 2019. It said gross domestic product, which fell 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018, probably contracted again in the fourth quarter, producing what economists define as a “technical recession” of two straight quarters of declining GDP. National statistics institute ISTAT will release official Q4 data on Jan. 31.
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