The Lastest Macroeconomic News
09.10.2018 14:13 IMF cuts its global growth forecast, citing trade disruptions
The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts as trade tensions between the U.S. and trading partners have started to hit economic activity worldwide. The IMF said the global economy is now expected to grow at 3.7 percent this year and next year - down 0.2 percentage points from an earlier forecast, according to the fund`s latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday. The report - published twice a year in April and October - is widely read by both public and private sectors globally for the IMF`s assessment of the world economy. The latest edition was released as thousands of finance officials and professionals gather in Bali, Indonesia, for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Earlier projections now appear to be "over-optimistic" given that risks from "further disruptions in trade policies" have become more prominent, said Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, in a prepared speech.
23.09.2018 15:51 Corruption costs $2.6 trillion or 5% of global GDP, says UN chief
The cost of corruption is at least $2.6 trillion, or five per cent of the global GDP, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said and urged the international community to work effectively against money laundering, tax evasion and illicit financial flows. According to the World Bank, businesses and individuals pay more than $1 trillion in bribes each year, the UN chief said during a session on tackling corruption for the sake of peace and international security. "Corruption is present in all the countries, rich and poor, the North and the South, developed and developing. Numbers show the startling scope of the challenge," Guterres said, citing the World Economic Forum estimates that corruption costs at least $2.6 trillion – or five per cent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
19.09.2018 14:36 Five Key Facts About the US Economy
President Donald Trump boasts the U.S economy is the "envy of the entire world," and polls suggest that voters view the health of the economy as second only to immigration in importance. Last month, the 10-year bull market -- a period during which prices rise, encouraging buying -- became the longest on record. Earlier this year, consumer spending rose to the highest level in more than six years. Personal consumption increased by 0.4 percent and sales of new homes have made significant gains since the housing crisis of the late 2000s.
15.09.2018 13:57 Russian central bank raises key rate for first time since 2014
The Russian Central Bank on Friday raised its key lending rate unchanged in six months by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5 percent on higher inflation expectations. It was the first rate hike since 2014 when a currency crisis broke out following Western sanctions. "Changes in external conditions observed since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors have significantly increased pro-inflationary risks," it said in a statement. The bank now forecasts Russia`s annual inflation to be 3.8-4.2 percent this year, compared to its previous forecast of 3.5-4.0 percent. Annual inflation will peak in the first six months of 2019, reaching 5.0-5.5 percent by the end of 2019, it said. In July, it said that the inflation could temporarily exceed the previously targeted 4 percent next year due to the increase in the value-added tax (VAT) to 20 percent from 18 percent in 2019.
08.09.2018 22:57 Russia is optimistic on growth but still far from where it wants to be
Russia has major challenges ahead in terms of improving its competitiveness on the world stage, but its current and former officials remain positive despite mounting Western sanctions. Russian Railways chairman and former Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy on Friday, admitted the slow pace of progress in the country of 144 million. "I think we`re far from where we want be … A long way to go, but we are getting more competitive with time," he told CNBC`s Steve Sedgwick, emphasizing the country`s plans to strengthen foreign partnerships and increase public and private investment into education and innovation. Economic growth in Russia hovers around 2 percent annually, a pickup from the 0.7 percent average of the last 10 years but a far cry from the 6.9 percent average of the decade before that and still a way from the current world average of around 3.5 percent. Its longstanding reliance on raw materials revenues, observers say, has hindered the modernization of its economy and looks set to continue to do so, despite President Vladimir Putin`s pledge to bring growth to 4 percent.
28.08.2018 20:41 NBF: Can Russia live up to its geopolitical ambitions?
Russia`s geopolitical influence is at its highest level since the end of the cold war and fall of the Soviet Union nearly thirty years ago, points out Angelo Katsoras, Research Analyst at National Bank Financial. “Russia has partitioned Georgia (2008), annexed Crimea (2014), stopped Ukraine from joining the European Union and NATO, and kept the Assad regime in power in Syria. Russia has also been accused of meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election by bombarding websites with fake news. “Though Russian President Vladimir Putin has proved a very shrewd geopolitical tactician, he faces many challenges. For one thing, Russia`s long-term structural economic weaknesses are at odds with its geopolitical ambitions. There is also the risk that the cost of these geopolitical successes may ultimately outweigh their benefits.”
20.08.2018 21:31 Rosstat: Russia`s GDP increases by 1.6 pct in H1
The Russian economy grew 1.6 percent year on year in the first half of 2018, Russia`s Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) said Friday, citing preliminary data. The figure is slightly lower than the estimate of the Russian Economic Development Ministry, which forecasted the economic growth in the first half of 2018 to be 1.7 percent. Rosstat previously recorded an increase of Russia`s GDP growth at 1.8 percent in the second quarter, higher than the 1.3 percent registered in the first quarter. In July, the Russian Central Bank raised its estimate for Russia`s GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 to 1.8 percent to 2.2 percent from the previous 1.0 percent to 1.4 percent, on account of the additional contribution by hosting the World Cup tournament.
12.08.2018 17:04 World GDP Growth Slowing
Over the course of 2017, one of the primary factors fueling investor optimism was the fact that, for the first time ever, global stocks rose in basically uninterrupted fashion, a sign of synchronized global growth that boded well for future prospects. Now that narrative is showing signs of unraveling, and while the US is seen as something of a haven, weakening trends abroad could pose another risk to Wall Street, which is already grappling with the geopolitical concern of trade uncertainty, MarketWatch reported. “We`re starting to see the end of the synchronized global growth that has prevailed over the last two years,” wrote Sara Potter, an associate director at FactSet who analyzes global markets. “While the US economy seems strong, growth in Europe and Japan is moderating, and emerging markets are under increasing economic and financial market pressure.” According to FactSet, which cited data from the International Monetary Fund, global GDP is expected to grow 3.9% in 2018 and hold at that level next year. The US is expected to grow 2.9% in 2018, an acceleration from the 2.2% expansion in 2017, and then cool slightly to 2.7% in 2019. FactSet`s own expectation, based on the mean estimate of analysts it polled, is that the US will grow 2.8% in 2018 and then slow to 2.4% in 2019.
12.08.2018 13:56 Russia-U.S. economic war looms larger as new sanctions near
The U.S. State Department said Wednesday that Washington will impose new sanctions on Russia on or around Aug. 22 over the alleged poison attack on ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the British city of Salisbury in March. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the U.S. restrictions will possibly include a ban on foreign assistance to Russia and sale of military and dual-use items to the country, as well as renunciation of providing state loans and other financial aid. U.S. State Department officials estimated that the sanctions may affect hundreds of millions of dollars worth of exports, dealing a blow to some 70 percent of the Russian economy which may result in an approximately 40-percent fall in workforce. "All I can say is: if they ban banking operations or the use of any currency we will call it the declaration of an economic war," Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Friday. "And we`ll have to respond to it - economically, politically or in any other way, if need be. Our American friends should make no mistake about it," he warned.
06.08.2018 23:56 Russian inflation accelerates to 2.5pc in July
Russia`s consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.5 percent in July in year-on-year terms, up from 2.3 percent in the previous month, the statistics service said on Monday. Month-on-month inflation was at 0.3 percent, down from 0.5 percent in June. The year-on-year increase in the CPI was slightly below of the analysts` expectations for a rise of 2.6 percent in a Reuters poll. Russia`s recovery continues but remains fragile. Growth in the first quarter remains around the 2% mark and no surprises are expected for the rest of the year. The GDP growth forecast for this year was recently revised down to 1.9%, while the outlook for industry has dipped back into the red after the manufacturing PMI turned red in May and June. Inflation and unemployment remain at record lows, although inflation is expected to rise from the current 2.3% towards 4% over the next year.
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