The Lastest Macroeconomic News
07.10.2015 12:04 IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook Again
A slowdown in emerging markets is pushing the world economy into its weakest expansion since the financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday as it warned of a rising risk of a global recession and once again downgraded its growth outlook. China`s deceleration and the subsequent plummet in commodity prices revealed a developing world that overinvested, borrowed excessively and exhausted its ability to expand without major economic overhauls. The IMF cut its forecast for emerging markets to 4% this year, down 0.2 percentage point from its last update in July. That marks the fifth consecutive year of declining growth and a level nearly half the rate the IMF recorded six years ago. Modest growth in the U.S. and a meager recovery in the eurozone, meanwhile, haven`t been able to offset falling output in emerging markets. The IMF cut its projections for global growth to 3.1% this year from its previous forecast of 3.3%. Souring emerging-market prospects also are muting next year`s rebound: The IMF reduced its prediction for global growth in 2016 by the same amount to 3.6%.
04.10.2015 12:39 World Bank Downgrades Russia`s Economic Outlook
Russia`s economic outlook has worsened, the World Bank said on Wednesday, but the government is still betting that the oil-dependent economy will return to growth as soon as next year. Russia`s economy is now seen shrinking by 3.8% in 2015 and by a further 0.6% in 2016, according to the World Bank baseline scenario. In June, the World Bank had expected Russia`s economy to contract 2.7% this year before returning to growth and expanding 0.7% next year. Hit by a drop in the price of oil, along with Western sanctions, Russia`s economy has slid into recession for the first time since 2009. Russian authorities have so far done little to kick-start growth, hoping that the economy will grow anyway next year thanks to the base effect. The World Bank is less optimistic. “Adverse external conditions pose a serious challenge to short-term growth prospects,” the World Bank said in a report. “Yet, high policy uncertainty prevails and the country`s outlook hinges not only on the evolution of external factors but also on its internal capacity to adapt to an increasingly difficult macro-fiscal context,” it said.
01.10.2015 13:03 Five things to know about Russia`s failing economy
Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to reclaim his place in the superpowers club on Monday, addressing the UN General Assembly and meeting President Obama on the sidelines to discuss the crises in Syria and Ukraine. But while Putin takes center stage in New York, millions of Russians are sliding back into poverty. Here are five things to know about the Russian economy: 1. Economic misery. 2. Low oil prices. 3. Sanctions pain. 4. No new friends. 5. It`s not just oil and sanctions.
29.09.2015 12:34 China`s slowdown could actually be good news for the world economy
At the risk of appearing perverse, let`s start with a counter-intuitive proposition. The slowdown in China, far from weakening the global recovery, might actually help it become more durable. This is not, of course, what the markets think. They recovered a bit, but are still way off their summer peaks. The uncertainties there are echoed by the central banks. The principal reason why the Fed held off increasing US rates last week was the slowdown in China. Andy Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, suggested that an emerging-market crisis might become the third leg of the financial disruption that began in 2008-09. Mario Draghi, the president of European Central Bank, acknowledged these concerns, although he concluded: "More time is needed to determine in particular whether the loss of growth momentum in emerging markets is of a temporary or permanent nature."
27.09.2015 11:21 For Russia, Oil Collapse Has Soviet Echoes
For most countries, the economic slowdown in China and the accompanying slump in commodity prices represent something between nuisance and pothole. For Russia, they are a catastrophe. Russia`s currency and economy, already squeezed by Western sanctions, have been sent into virtual free fall by slumping oil prices. The International Monetary Fund predicted in July that Russia`s economy would shrink 3.4% this year, the most of any major emerging market. That now looks optimistic. Anders Aslund, a Russia expert at the Atlantic Council in Washington, thinks 6% is more likely. Coincidentally, that`s close to what the Russian central bank predicted would happen if oil fell to $40 a barrel, roughly its current level. As low commodity prices have impacted markets around the world, Russia may have been hurt the most. WSJ chief economics columnist Greg Ip explains why.
24.09.2015 12:34 Global economy`s outlook becomes bleaker
The outlook for the global economy became bleaker on Wednesday as signs of a deeper downturn in China emerged, despite massive policy stimulus, coupled with weak growth at best in Europe. China`s vast factory sector shrank at its fastest rate in 6-1/2-years in September, a private survey showed, sending investors worried about sagging global growth scurrying out of risky assets. Reacting to the data, Asian stocks posted their biggest single-day fall in a month on Wednesday. Similar surveys, due later on Wednesday, are likely to show the U.S. economy lost some steam in September even with the Federal Reserve holding fire on interest rates. “There is substantial concern at present that global demand weakness is dampening the economy in the industrial countries,” said Jorg Kramer, chief economist at Commerzbank.
22.09.2015 12:46 China`s economy is in trouble. How bad is it?
There is almost no way that China`s economy is growing as well as the government says it is. For years, experts have questioned whether China cooks its books. "The question is not whether they`re right, it`s how wrong are they," says Derek Scissors, an Asia expert at the American Enterprise Institute. But you don`t need a PhD in statistics to figure it out this time. Just take a look at what China`s government has been doing lately: making a surprise devaluation of the yuan in an effort to boost exports, propping up its markets by actually buying stocks, spending big and cutting interest rates in an effort to stimulate its economy. China wouldn`t be taking these actions if the country really was chugging along at the 7% growth rate that the latest government data claims. "China could be in the world`s greatest depression and they would still report 7%," says Gordon Chang, a China expert and author of " The Coming Collapse of China." But just how bad is it in China? Stock markets around the world are tanking because investors are afraid that the world`s second-largest economy will drag other countries down with it. China is a major buyer of commodities like oil and copper. When China doesn`t purchase as much, countries like Australia, Canada and Brazil that provide those commodities to China really suffer.
20.09.2015 10:36 Mexico`s Treasury lowers GDP growth forecast, to 2-2.8 pct
The Mexican Treasury Department lowered its economic growth forecast for 2015 to between 2 percent and 2.8 percent. The new figure was down from a previous projection of 2.2 percent to 3.2 percent growth. Treasury Deputy Secretary Fernando Aportela said the economy was limited in the second quarter by disappointing industrial activity in the United States, which accounts for 80 percent of Mexico`s international commerce. Aportela added that Mexico`s oil production, a main economic driver for the country, has dropped by 165,000 barrels a day. However, he said Mexico has performed solidly in other indicators such as employment and inflation.
17.09.2015 14:09 OECD Lowers Global Economic Forecast
The outlook for the global economy has weakened slightly and become less certain in recent months as ripples from China outweigh an improvement in the U.S., the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday. In the latest update to its economic forecasts, the Paris-based research body zeroed in on the slowdown in China as the main risk facing the global economy and warned that authorities there face deep challenges. While the OECD said the strength of the U.S. economy justifies the Federal Reserve beginning to raise interest rates at a gradual pace, that robustness isn`t enough to brighten the overall outlook for the rest of the world. The risk from China also comes as the economic recovery in the eurozone is moving slower than might be hoped given the tailwinds from lower oil prices, low interest rates and a weaker euro that should boost exporters, the OECD added. "Global growth will remain subpar in 2015. Some strengthening in growth is expected in 2016, but doubts about future potential growth continue to build," the OECD said. The OECD cut its 2015 global growth forecast to 3% from 3.1% in June and its 2016 forecast to 3.6% from 3.8%. It expects Chinese growth to slow to 6.7% this year and 6.5% next year after 7.4% in 2014.
15.09.2015 10:06 Why Russia is making a risky military move in Syria
Over the last few months a series of diplomatic meetings from Moscow to Washington raised hopes for a serious new push toward a political solution to the vicious war in Syria that has killed more than 250,000 people and forced thousands more to flee to Europe. That optimistic idea has been put in doubt by Russia`s recent moves to significantly bolster military support for Syria`s ruthless dictator, Bashar Assad, whose hold on his country is weakening. Russia has long been a major enabler of Assad, protecting him from criticism and sanctions at the United Nations Security Council and providing weapons for his army. But the latest assistance may be expanding Russian involvement in the conflict to a new and more dangerous level. Russia has sent a military advance team to Syria and transported prefabricated housing units for hundreds of military personnel to an airfield near Latakia, the Assad family`s ancestral home, The Times` Michael Gordon and Eric Schmitt have reported. Russia also sent a portable air-traffic station and filed requests to make military flights over neighboring countries through September. Russia is obviously concerned about the fate of Assad and his regime, which is struggling to sustain an army after four years of war and is suffering such serious battlefield defeats that the state may not survive. The relationship with Syria dates to Soviet times and is one of Russia`s last levers of influence in the Middle East. Russia operates a small naval base at Tartus on the Mediterranean and is keen to preserve it. Russia`s president, Vladimir Putin, may also be using the buildup to strengthen Russia`s hand in any political outcome in Syria and to constrain US military options there. The constructive way to have an impact is for Putin to drop his opposition to Washington`s and its allies` insistence that Assad be replaced as part of a negotiated political settlement that includes a transition to a new government.
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