The Lastest Macroeconomic News
02.09.2015 17:58 China growth probably half reported rate or less, say skeptics
China`s economy is growing only half as fast as official data shows, or maybe even slower, according to foreign investors and analysts who increasingly challenge how the world`s second largest economy can be measured so swiftly and precisely. Beijing`s official statisticians reported in July that China`s economy grew by a steady 7.0 percent in the first two quarters of the year, spot on its official 2015 target. That statistical stability comes at a time when prices of global commodities, which China still hungers for despite a campaign to rebalance the economy away from investment and manufacturing toward consumer spending, have cratered. But perhaps the biggest question is how a developing country of 1.4 billion people can publish its quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) statistics weeks before first drafts from developed economies like the United States, the euro zone or Britain, and then barely revise them later.
31.08.2015 13:42 China`s economy in the limelight
Global economic growth continues, but at a slightly slower rate than we expected, especially in the EMs, and with some more significant downside risks. The outlook for the DMs remain favourable and in 2015 growth should be at its strongest since 2010, supported by the central banks, lower private-sector debt and lower oil prices. Economic growth in the EMs will slow for the fifth consecutive year, as a consequence of the deceleration in growth in China and lower commodity prices. All in all, global growth will reflect the impact of Fed rate hikes, the first since January 2004, and the pace of the economic slowdown in China. In the most likely scenario, global GDP growth in 2015 will repeat the 3.4% increase seen in 2014 and will accelerate to 3.8% in 2016.
26.08.2015 20:54 Russia can survive oil at $US40 as economy adjusts
Eleven months of surviving with oil below $US100 have left Russia hardened enough to endure a monthlong drop to $US40 a barrel, a survey of economists showed. Crude at that level will push the economy to a contraction of 5 per cent this year and 1 per cent in 2016, before it rebounds to 0.8 per cent growth in 2017, according to the median of 20 estimates. The central bank said in June the economy will shrink every year through 2017 if oil remains at $40. Last year`s rouble crisis underscored the vulnerability of the world`s biggest energy exporter to slumping oil, which together with gas accounts for about half of budget revenue. The latest forecasts reflect Russia`s move to loosen its reins over the currency and allow consumer demand to absorb the shock of last year`s collapse. "During the first half of 2015, the economy has already adjusted to some extent to a weaker oil-price environment," Oleg Kouzmin, a former central bank adviser who`s now an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said by email. "So the continued contraction in oil should not hurt it as much as a direct drop from $US100 to $US40." If oil drops to $US40, authorities will limit their response to an emergency interest rate increase, avoiding harsher measures such as capital controls and the state takeover of banks, a majority of economists said.
24.08.2015 09:49 Global economy grows at slowest pace since financial crisis, NIESR predicts
The world economic growth would slow this year to the lowest rate since the financial crisis, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said. The economic research institution downgraded global economic forecasts for 2015 and 2016. The 2015 and 2016 forecasts were revised down by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively, to 3.0 and 3.5 percent. NIESR said global growth this year is now forecast to be the slowest for any year since the crisis, reflecting a trend of weakening growth in many emerging market economies as well as hesitant recoveries in the advanced economies. It cut growth forecasts for the U.S. and a number of emerging market economies in Asia and Latin America. While the Greek crisis has been the main preoccupation of Eurozone policymakers, the growth forecast for the euro area has been lowered only slightly, the think tank added. Its prospects for Britain economy were unchanged at 2.5 percent this year.
20.08.2015 18:56 Things in China are about to get better, but for the worst possible reason
Chinese economic data continues to disappoint, and the recent volatility in the country`s stock markets shows no sign of abating. Wall Street`s reaction to this is pretty much unanimous: the government has to take action to stop the bleeding. And that action, the belief goes, will help China`s economic performance turn around in the second half of 2015. The problem is that the measures the politicians will most likely implement will only exacerbate China`s deepest structural economic problems. That means any bubbles in China`s credit and property markets will only get bigger, and the reform required to tilt the economy toward domestic consumption will be further delayed. This is a giant can being kicked down the road. The plan for China`s economy had been to start accepting lower levels of annual growth in what President Xi Jinping called a "new normal" in order to reform sluggish economic sectors and normalize the system. The government was at the same time encouraging investment in the stock market.
18.08.2015 19:14 Big four country boom could add $25 trillion to world economy
An unusual confluence of events in the world`s new effective Big Four economies could add $US18 trillion ($25 trillion) to the size of the world economy by 2020 confounding the current gloomy outlook and pushing oil back above $US100 a barrel. And a potentially stronger than expected recovery in the US, China, Japan and India fuelled even more by their interdependence would have a particularly positive impact on a commodities dependent and food exporting economy like Australia, according to a new study by BNY Mellon investment strategist Simon Cox. Mr Cox, who is talking to investors in Australia this week about a new series of planned contrarian reports on a potential upturn in world growth, says that the existing "glum consensus" in the world gives little weight to to some of the things that have gone right over the past couple of years especially in what he defines as the big four economies. He says Japan has a stable government and a determined central bank, unemployment is dropping surprisingly quickly in the US, China`s president Xi Jinping has consolidated power fast and has staked his personal authority on economic change and in India Narendra Modi is adding reforms to an already changed Indian economy. "This is an unusual confluence of events. The United States is enjoying a durable recovery just as all three of Asia`s big powers boast secure, confident governments committed, at least in word, to economic reform. The region`s stars rarely fall into alignment in this way," he says.
15.08.2015 19:03 Eurozone GDP unexpectedly slowed in second quarter
The eurozone`s economic recovery lost momentum in the second quarter, underscoring the deep-rooted fragility in the region as a cooling Chinese economy and lingering concerns about Greece`s debts cloud its outlook. Gross domestic product growth slowed to 0.3% from 0.4% in the first quarter, missing economists` forecasts of a 0.4% gain, the European Union statistical agency said Friday. That translates to an annualized rate of 1.3%, Eurostat said. The data also highlight the big divergences within the 19 countries sharing the euro, which threaten the region`s prospects for a sustained recovery. Accelerating GDP growth in Germany was offset by weaker growth in Italy and the Netherlands, while the French economy stagnated. German GDP growth quickened to 0.4% from 0.3% in the first quarter, falling short of economists` forecasts of a 0.5% gain. That translates into an annualized rate of 1.8%, according to the country`s statistical agency, Destatis. French GDP was unchanged in the second quarter from the first. That was below forecasts of a 0.2% rise and marked a sharp slowdown from the 0.7% jump in the first quarter. Economic growth in Italy, meanwhile, slowed to a quarterly rate of 0.2% from 0.3% in the first quarter, confirming the recovery in the eurozone`s third-largest economy is still fragile.
12.08.2015 19:34 Kyrgyzstan joins Eurasian Economic Union
Kyrgyzstan has officially become a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) after passing an accession process by the parliaments of the other members–Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. "The most important step was the ratification of the Treaty on the Kyrgyzstan Accession to the EEU by the parliaments of the five countries, so all parliaments have expressed their will," Kyrgyz Economy Minister Oleg Pankratov stated on July 9. Pankratov added that there are no substantial barriers to Kyrgyzstan`s accession to the EEU as full member. Currently, according to the procedure of the EEU accession, the ratified documents were signed by the presidents of member states, which would then be sent to the Eurasian Economic Commission depositary. Kyrgyzstan`s membership in the EEU assures deepening integration between Kyrgyzstan and the EEU member states, providing a free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor.
11.08.2015 20:15 India has potential to become multi-trillion dollar economy
India has the potential to become a multi-trillion dollar economy with a per capita income of about $40,000 by 2050 if it manages to grow at seven per cent annually for the next 30-35 years, a top World Bank official has said. "If we can manage to grow at seven per cent for next 35 years, we will not only be the second largest economy in the world at that time but we will be prosperous and people will be rich enough," World Bank Executive Director for Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Sri Lanka Subhash Chandra Garg said. Addressing the Indian-American community at the Indian Consulate, Garg said India has the potential to become a multi-trillion dollar economy with a per capita income of about $40,000 by 2050 as against the current $2,000 but to achieve that it will have to grow at seven per cent annually for the next 30-35 years. However, he said that achieving and sustaining a seven per cent growth rate for 35 years is "very difficult" and "would require a lot of transformation in the way we manage our economy". He underlined that India will have to transform its agriculture completely, grow its services and manufacturing sectors and give a boost to healthcare and tourism.
08.08.2015 13:06 Industrial Production Slumps in Eurozone`s Engine Room
Industrial production fell in the eurozone`s three largest economies in June, a sign that economic activity in the region failed to gain much momentum in the second quarter. The drop was most severe in Germany, the region`s industrial powerhouse, where output, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal swings, slumped 1.4% from May, data from the economics ministry showed Friday. Industrial production dropped by 1.1% on the month in Italy and slipped by 0.1% in France, highlighting a diverging trend between the eurozone`s core and its southwestern periphery. Industrial production in Spain, which accounts for roughly one-tenth of eurozone gross domestic product, rose 0.4% in June from the previous month, the INE statistics institute said Friday, another sign that Spain remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the region.
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