The Lastest Macroeconomic News
24.05.2019 19:16 P Morgan slashes second-quarter GDP forecast to just 1%
J.P. Morgan economists said they now see much slower second-quarter growth of just 1%, down from their prior forecast of 2.25% and way off the 3.2% reported in the first quarter. “The April durable goods report was bad, particularly the details relating to capital goods orders and shipments. Coming on the heels of last week’s crummy April retail sales report, it suggests second quarter activity growth is sharply downshifting from the first quarter pace, ” the economists wrote. The Atlanta Fed`s GDP Now tracker has GDP growth for the first quarter at 1.3% for the quarter.
13.05.2019 20:49 Russian inflation to reach 4% target in Q1 2020
Annual inflation in Russia is slowing and will reach the central bank`s 4% target in the first quarter of 2020 even though inflationary expectations remain high, the bank said in a report on Monday. The report, dated April, also said that inflation measured in monthly and seasonally-adjusted terms has already slowed to be in line with the central bank`s target. Economic growth is now expected to pick up starting in the second quarter of 2019, the central bank said. Russia`s consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.2 percent in April in year-on-year terms, in line with analysts` expectations, after a 5.3 percent increase in March, the statistics service said. Month-on-month inflation was at 0.3 percent in April, the same level as in March.
04.05.2019 15:30 Russian defense spending is much larger, and more sustainable than it seems
The United States has a basic problem: Devising a strategy toward great power adversaries necessitates having some reasonable estimate of their economic and military power. We do not do this especially well. Ask yourself: Do we really know how much our adversaries spend on their military, and what they are getting for their money? Russia, for example, presents a glaring problem for academic and policy circles alike. Most comparisons are done in current U.S. dollars based on prevailing exchange rates, making Russia’s economy seem the size of South Korea’s. This approach is useless for comparing defense spending, or the country’s purchasing power. Yet, it is used frequently to argue that despite a large military modernization program, and a sizable conventional and nuclear deterrent, Moscow is a paper tiger. As a consequence, the debate on relative military power and expectations of the future military balance is terribly warped by a low-information environment.
23.04.2019 21:18 Russia`s Economy To Slow In 2019, Followed By Modest 2020 Rebound
Fitch Solutions expects Russian economic growth will ease in 2019, in-line with moderating domestic and foreign demand, with real GDP growth slowing to 1.5%, compared to 2.3% in 2018. A hike to the value-added tax, higher inflation and weaker gains in the labour market will all act to temper household consumption growth, while investment will remain capped by political risk and structural impediments. Meanwhile, improvements in the trade balance will be driven by weaker import growth. Fitch Solutions sees a modest rebound in growth to 1.7% in 2020.
22.04.2019 16:22 Guests from the future: the first congress of the leadership of Asgardia
The congress of the management team of Asgardia, the only space state in the world, took place on April 10-12 in Vienna, at the Kempinski hotel. Ministers and chairmen of the parliamentary committees of Asgardia flocked to the Austrian capital from different parts of the Earth to discuss further development of the state - in particular, citizenship, production, trade, culture, safety and security, finance, resources and others. Founder of Asgardia, Head of the nation Igor Ashurbeyli, in a welcoming speech, stressed that the task of the Congress is to complete the formation of the government of the state, to take the oath of leadership from the leaders and lay the foundations for the development program of Asgardia. He also recalled the already existing achievements of the space nation: "only two and a half years passed since the formation of the state - no more than an instant from the historical point of view, and yet Asgardia already has more than a million citizens, it has its own territory - the Asgardia-1 satellite", Its currency - the solar, its leadership, as well as the emblem, flag, anthem and constitution.
14.04.2019 14:28 QNB: Global GDP growth is slowing but serious crisis remains unlikely
Citing the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), QNB said in its weekly analysis that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a temporary slowing in the growth rate of global economic activity (GDP) to 3.3% in 2019 from 3.6% in 2018. The IMF has been steadily revising down its estimates and forecasts for global GDP growth over the past year. However, the Fund expects a recovery in 2020 with global GDP growth of 3.6%, driven by a continued policy stimulus in China and recent tailwinds in global financial market sentiment, QNB said. The slowdown in 2018 and forecast downgrades, according to QNB, have been caused by four main factors: First, while the US economy posted its strongest performance in three years in 2018, up 2.9%, it started to slow by Q4 2018. GDP growth momentum is slowing due to dissipating fiscal stimulus, tighter financial conditions, slower and softening private sector confidence.
03.04.2019 14:38 Lagarde says the global economy has lost momentum since January
The world economy in a `precarious` position, says the IMF`s managing director, Christine Lagarde. Picture: Matthew Lloyd, Bloomberg The world economy in a `precarious` position, says the IMF`s managing director, Christine Lagarde. Global growth has lost momentum since the start of the year, leaving the world economy in a “precarious” position, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said. The global economy has weakened since the International Monetary Fund last updated its forecast in late January, though a recession isn`t likely in the near term, Lagarde said Tuesday in remarks prepared for a speech at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington. In January, the fund lowered its projection for world economic growth, forecasting expansion of 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2020. It was the IMF`s second cut in the outlook in three months. The fund will release its new World Economic Outlook with an updated growth forecast on April 9. “The global economy is at a `delicate moment,`” Lagarde said. Her warning comes as global finance ministers and central bankers prepare to convene in Washington next week for the semi-annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. While confidence has been boosted by the Federal Reserve`s switch to a more patient stance and signs of a trade deal between the US and China, investors remain concerned the global expansion may be running out of steam a decade after the financial crisis.
27.03.2019 15:16 Russia has sufficient resources to implement national projects
Russia has enough resources to implement its national projects outlined by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the next five years, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday. "Now, on this foundation, we can build more actively a new type of economy, with a high-tech industry, good export potential and, of course, a large package of affordable and modern social services for people," he told a meeting of senior Finance Ministry officials. Last month, the Russian government said it planned to spend over 25.7 trillion rubles (399 billion U.S. dollars) on projects in a dozen national strategic development areas in 2019-2024. The plan followed a decree signed by Putin in May last year, which outlined the roadmap and targets for national development in a wide range of areas in the years leading up to 2024, including economic growth and technology.
26.03.2019 19:22 Ukraine`s GDP growth hits 7-year high in 2018
Ukraine`s gross domestic product (GDP) growth hit a seven-year high of 3.3 percent in 2018, official data showed on Friday. The Ukrainian Economic Development and Trade Ministry said on Facebook that the growth was driven by the high domestic demand and strong investment. In the same time, the ministry pointed out that the pace of the economic growth last year was overshadowed by the tensions with Russia. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Ukraine`s GDP grew 3.5 percent year-on-year instead of 3.4 percent estimated earlier due to the strong performance in the construction sector and industry, the ministry said. The Ukrainian economy sank into recession in the first quarter of 2014 and suffered a consolidated decline of 16.5 percent in 2014-2015. Ukraine`s GDP rose by 2.5 percent in 2017, after growing 2.3 percent in 2016. The government has estimated that the economy will rise 3 percent this year.
22.03.2019 13:02 EBRD predicts 3.5-percent GDP growth for Kazakhstan in 2019
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Transition Report forecasts steady growth for the Kazakh economy, as major structural reforms are expected to improve the situation further. “Kazakhstan`s real GDP grew 4 percent in 2017 and a little bit more in 2018. This has been driven since 2017 primarily by exports and a recovery in private consumption has started to be a driver of GDP growth since 2018,” said EBRD Associate Director and Lead Regional Economist Hans Holzhacker. “Oil is a large part of exports,” he added. “Roughly 65 percent of exports in dollar terms are oil exports. There has been a significant increase since 2016. This peaked in the third quarter of 2018, mostly because prices have come down. There was also an increase in production, like a 5 percent increase in 2018 over 2017, as Kashagan started to produce more.” Private consumption has been a growth driver largely because real incomes finally started to improve last year. The solid growth, however, was neither driven nor accompanied by credit expansion, credit growth or the banking system as a whole.
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