The Lastest Macroeconomic News
20.11.2018 18:51 Russia`s central bank sees year-end inflation close to target of 4 percent
Russia`s central bank expects year-end inflation to be around its target of 4 percent, but the balance of risks may still change ahead of its key rate meeting on Dec. 14, the head of the bank`s research department said on Tuesday. Alexander Morozov said the bank may halt foreign exchange purchases again in 2019 if there are risks to financial stability. The purchases have been on hold since August due to market volatility, and the central bank is due decide next month when and how to resume purchases. Russia`s Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin believes that consumer price inflation in Russia may exceed the forecast of 3.4% in 2018 due to exchange rate fluctuations. "Concerning the approved forecast, the risks are obviously shifted upwards (on inflation)," PRIME cited the minister as saying. "Not very much, but shifted. Our course dynamics are developing above the forecast that was laid in August. There are clear reasons why this is happening – this is connected with global markets, with possible sanctions," the minister added. "The rate in the part that affects inflation has already been largely formed. Even if the forecast for the rate can be fulfilled at the end of the year, it will not have a strong influence on this year`s inflation. Therefore, inflation will be higher than 3.4% that we have in the forecast," Oreshkin concluded.
16.11.2018 17:07 Global GDP growth forecast at 3.1 percent in early 2019
The global economy is projected to expand at more than 3 percent in early 2019, with growth showing signs of peaking especially in the Euro area and emerging markets, a US research organization said. The world`s economic growth, which stands at 3.2 percent for 2018, will be slightly down to 3.1 percent in 2019, according to the latest Global Economic Outlook of the New York-based Conference Board. “The global economy will remain strong through the next half year – with no signs of a downturn – assuming there are no major policy disruptions such as a widespread escalation in tariffs on trade,” said Bart van Ark, chief economist of the Conference Board. “But business cycles are maturing in most economies and growth rates are gradually reverting to slower trends in the medium-term,” he said, adding that the slower growth of labor supply and modest projections of productivity growth are the main concerns.
06.11.2018 21:42 US job openings dip but still exceed number of unemployed
The number of jobs posted by U.S. employers declined slightly in September but still exceeded the number of unemployed Americans and remained near a two-decade high. The report Tuesday from the Labor Department provided the latest evidence that many U.S. companies are straining to fill jobs in the face of a robust job market with low unemployment. The department said job openings declined 4 percent to roughly 7 million, still close to the highest levels on records dating to December 2000. The number of openings far exceeded the roughly 6 million people who were unemployed in September. The number of available jobs, in fact, has topped the number of unemployed for six straight months. Steadily strong hiring has lowered the U.S. unemployment rate to a nearly five-decade low of 3.7 percent.
27.10.2018 17:43 U.S. GDP Grew by 3.5 Percent in Third Quarter
The U.S. economy grew at a robust annual rate of 3.5 percent in the July-September quarter as the strongest burst of consumer spending in nearly four years helped offset a sharp drag from trade. The Commerce Department said Friday that the third quarter`s gross domestic product, the country`s total output of goods and services, followed an even stronger 4.2 percent rate of growth in the second quarter. The two quarters marked the strongest consecutive quarters of growth since 2014. The result was slightly higher than many economists had been projecting. It was certain to be cited by President Donald Trump as evidence his economic policies are working. But some private economists worry that the recent stock market declines could be a warning signal of a coming slowdown.
24.10.2018 15:14 Russia`s industrial output growth slows
Russia`s industrial output growth continued to slow down in September 2018 to 2.1% year-on-year from 2.7% seen in August and 3.9% in July, the latest data by Rosstat statistics agency shows. The industrial growth for 3Q18 slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.2% in 2Q18, amounting to 3% y/y in January-September 2018. The growth in September was largely supported by expanding extraction. "Significant improvements can be seen in the output of crude oil, which expanded on the decision by Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase volumes in September-December," VTB Capital commented. Mining and quarrying output growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y, driven by faster growth in oil production that increased to 4.9% y/y. At the same time manufacturing output shrank by 0.1% y/y in September compared with 2.2% y/y growth the month before, showing negative dynamics for the first time since December 2017. Manufacturing was still up 2.2% y/y in 3Q18 and 3.3% y/y in January-September.
17.10.2018 16:15 BAML poll: Investors gloomiest on world growth since 2008 financial crisis
Global investors have the most pessimistic outlook on the world economy since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch`s monthly survey, which also showed a sharp fall in US equity allocations. The survey, released on Tuesday was conducted Oct. 5 to 11 and canvassed investors managing $646 billion. It showed investors remained overweight equities overall, though the 22 percent overweight was just marginally off the recent record low of 19 percent. But in a sign of caution, they held cash at 5.1 percent -- a net 36 percent overweight -- and well above than the 4.5 percent 10-year average. The poll showed that a net 38 percent of respondents expected the global economy to slow, the worst outlook on global growth since November 2008. A net 35 percent of participants identified trade war as the biggest risk. Investors were also gloomy on corporate earnings, with a fifth of respondents expecting global profits to deteriorate in the coming year, BAML said, noting that in January a net 39 percent of investors had predicted an improvement.
09.10.2018 14:13 IMF cuts its global growth forecast, citing trade disruptions
The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts as trade tensions between the U.S. and trading partners have started to hit economic activity worldwide. The IMF said the global economy is now expected to grow at 3.7 percent this year and next year - down 0.2 percentage points from an earlier forecast, according to the fund`s latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday. The report - published twice a year in April and October - is widely read by both public and private sectors globally for the IMF`s assessment of the world economy. The latest edition was released as thousands of finance officials and professionals gather in Bali, Indonesia, for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Earlier projections now appear to be "over-optimistic" given that risks from "further disruptions in trade policies" have become more prominent, said Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, in a prepared speech.
23.09.2018 15:51 Corruption costs $2.6 trillion or 5% of global GDP, says UN chief
The cost of corruption is at least $2.6 trillion, or five per cent of the global GDP, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said and urged the international community to work effectively against money laundering, tax evasion and illicit financial flows. According to the World Bank, businesses and individuals pay more than $1 trillion in bribes each year, the UN chief said during a session on tackling corruption for the sake of peace and international security. "Corruption is present in all the countries, rich and poor, the North and the South, developed and developing. Numbers show the startling scope of the challenge," Guterres said, citing the World Economic Forum estimates that corruption costs at least $2.6 trillion – or five per cent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
19.09.2018 14:36 Five Key Facts About the US Economy
President Donald Trump boasts the U.S economy is the "envy of the entire world," and polls suggest that voters view the health of the economy as second only to immigration in importance. Last month, the 10-year bull market -- a period during which prices rise, encouraging buying -- became the longest on record. Earlier this year, consumer spending rose to the highest level in more than six years. Personal consumption increased by 0.4 percent and sales of new homes have made significant gains since the housing crisis of the late 2000s.
15.09.2018 13:57 Russian central bank raises key rate for first time since 2014
The Russian Central Bank on Friday raised its key lending rate unchanged in six months by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5 percent on higher inflation expectations. It was the first rate hike since 2014 when a currency crisis broke out following Western sanctions. "Changes in external conditions observed since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors have significantly increased pro-inflationary risks," it said in a statement. The bank now forecasts Russia`s annual inflation to be 3.8-4.2 percent this year, compared to its previous forecast of 3.5-4.0 percent. Annual inflation will peak in the first six months of 2019, reaching 5.0-5.5 percent by the end of 2019, it said. In July, it said that the inflation could temporarily exceed the previously targeted 4 percent next year due to the increase in the value-added tax (VAT) to 20 percent from 18 percent in 2019.
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