The Lastest Macroeconomic News
13.01.2009 20:51 EBRD said the Eurasian economies are expected to see a slowing of growth in 2009
The Russian economy and the Eurasian economies are expected to see a slowing of growth in 2009, as a consequence of falling prices for oil and other commodities, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasted. EBRD said Russian GDP will grow 3-4 percent in 2009 compared to 7.3 percent in 2008. The Ukraine economy will grow 1.0 percent this year - the lowest pace in the region. The Kazakh economy is forecasted to grow on average by between 2.7% and 4.1% a year from 2009-2013. GDP per capita is projected to reach just over $13,000, considerably lower than the earlier forecast of $15,737. This follows almost a decade during which GDP growth averaged just under 10% a year. The much lower forecasts are a consequence of the dramatic decrease in the prices for oil and other commodities, which make up the bulk of Kazakhstan`s exports, since mid-2008. In Uzbekistan, EBRD forecasts a gradual decline in GDP growth from 9.5% in 2007, to 8% in 2008 and 7% in 2009. Azerbaijan, which saw a stunning 23.4% expansion of the economy in 2007, has a growth forecast of 17% in 2008 and 15% in 2009. Countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which are less dependent on commodity exports, have also come under pressure due to the slowdown in their trading partners Ц chiefly Russia and Kazakhstan. The smaller CIS economies are also expected to see a contraction in remittance payments from migrant workers abroad. Only Turkmenistan appears exempt from the international downturn, with growth remaining at a steady 12% in 2008 and 2009. The Caucasus suffered a setback when war broke out between Georgia and Russia over the separatist South Ossetia in August 2008. The consequences for Georgia were the most severe, but Armenia`s economy has also been affected, while oil exports from Azerbaijan were temporarily cut.
10.01.2009 15:05 U.S. jobless rate at 16-year high as payrolls plunge
The U.S. unemployment rate surged to the highest in nearly 16 years last month as a deepening year-long recession forced companies to axe more than half a million jobs, government data showed. The U.S. economy lost an astonishing 1.9 million jobs in the past four months alone, an acceleration in layoffs towards the end of a year that brought the biggest drop in employment in more than a half century. In all of 2008, 2.6 million people lost their jobs, the largest slump in employment since a 2.75 million drop in 1945. The December data pointed to a bleak start for 2009 and increased chances the economic downturn could become the longest since the 1930s. "This is a very dismal report. This paints a much worse picture in 2008 than we had thought," said Lindsey Piegza, market analyst at FTN Financial in New York. "This is one of the most significant downward quarters for jobs in post World War (Two) history." The Labour Department said the unemployment rate jumped to 7.2 percent last month, the highest since January 1993, from 6.8 percent in November. The rise was driven by massive layoffs in all major sectors except government, education and health. In all, employers cut nonfarm payrolls by 524,000 last month. While that was a bit less than analysts had predicted, job loss totals for October and November were revised upward and came in much higher than previously estimated.
02.01.2009 12:18 The Economic Development Ministry: Russia`s GDP grew 1.6% in November 2008
Russia`s GDP grew 1.6% in November, but dropped by 0.7% when adjusted for seasonal factors, the Economic Development Ministry said. "The indication of the negative consequences of the global financial crisis on Russia`s economy grew in November. GDP growth was 1.6% after 6.9% in September and 5% in October on the same period last year," the ministry said. "Since July there has been a decline once seasonal factors are excluded, in November it was 0.7%," the ministry said. Industrial output fell 7.5% in November, the second consecutive monthly decline, the ministry reported. "The industrial production index was 91.3% in November 2008 against November 2007, which means a 7.5% output decrease as compared to October, excluding seasonal factors," the ministry`s monitoring report read. The ministry said this was the result of a recession in manufacturing industries, as well as electricity, gas and water production and distribution. According to the ministry`s preliminary forecast, Russia`s GDP in January-November grew 6.5%. Russia`s GDP will grow about 2% in 2009 while inflation will be 10-12%, presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich said. Last week, Russian Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said Russia`s forecast GDP growth for 2009 was 2.4%, while inflation was predicted to be 11% against 13.5% for this year.
28.12.2008 21:30 Russia`s GDP will grow about 2% in 2009 while inflation will be 10-12%
Russia`s GDP will grow about 2% in 2009 while inflation will be 10-12%, presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich said. Last week, Russian Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said Russia`s forecast GDP growth for 2009 was 2.4%, while inflation was predicted to be 11% against 13.5% for this year. According to the ministry`s preliminary forecast, Russia`s GDP in January-November grew 6.5%. At the same time, global economic growth will grind into a low gear in 2009, according to a new study released by the World Bank. The multilateral development bank said the world economy will expand by only 0.9 per cent next year after seeing a global GDP expansion of 2.5 per cent in 2008. The bank noted that world GDP grew by 3.7 per cent in 2007. Developing countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa, will enjoy a faster economic expansion than most industrialized countries in 2009, but are still at risk from a slowdown in export sales and as commodity prices drop, the World Bank said in releasing its forecast.
23.12.2008 23:00 The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.5% annual rate in Q3 2008
There`s been no change in the U.S. economy`s pulse, according to the most recent GDP data from the U.S. Commerce Department. The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.5% annual rate in Q3, the Commerce Department announced, in its final reading on the quarter. The rate was unrevised from the previous estimate, but it was the weakest quarterly growth rate since Q1 2001. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the economy to contract at a 0.5% annualized rate in Q3. One danger sign for the economy: consumer spending, which accounts for 60-65% of U.S. GDP, declined at a revised 3.8% annualized rate in Q3, worse than the 3.7% annualized decline estimate announced earlier. One bright spot concerns inflation: core consumer inflation, which excludes the often-volatile food and energy component, was revised lower to a 2.4% annualized rate in the quarter, from the 2.6% previous annualized rate. The 2.4% rate is roughly within the U.S. Federal Reserve`s "comfort zone" for inflation. Wang called the inflation data "very tame." Further, Wang expects the world`s largest economy to shrink at a troubling 4.0% rate in Q4, and to keep contracting through at least through the end of Q2 2009. That would mean a recession of 18 months - the longest U.S recession since 1947.
20.12.2008 22:01 Industrial production down by 1.2% in both euro area and EU27
In October 2008 compared with September 2008, seasonally adjusted industrial production1 fell by 1.2% in both the euro area (EA15) and the EU27. In September production decreased by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively. In October 2008 compared with October 2007, industrial production declined by 5.3% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU27. In October 2008 compared with September 2008, production of non-durable consumer goods grew by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU27. Production of energy fell by 0.1% and 1.1% respectively. Durable consumer goods dropped by 1.4% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU27. Capital goods declined by 2.0% and 1.7% respectively. Intermediate goods decreased by 2.0% in both zones. In October 2008, among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production fell in nineteen and grew only in Portugal (+1.3%). The most significant falls were registered in Ireland (-6.4%), Lithuania (-5.6%), Estonia (-5.0%), Latvia (-3.7%) and Romania (-3.4%). In October 2008 compared with October 2007, production of energy fell by 1.3% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods decreased by 2.5% and 2.7% respectively. Capital goods declined by 5.2% in the euro area and by 4.9% in the EU27. Intermediate goods dropped by 7.4% and 7.2% respectively. Production of durable consumer goods fell by 8.4% in the euro area and by 6.3% in the EU27. In October 2008, among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production fell in eighteen and rose only in Poland and Slovakia (both +0.1%). The most significant falls were registered in Spain (-12.8%), Estonia (-11.0%), Ireland (-10.0%), Latvia (-9.0%) and France (-7.5%).
15.12.2008 21:57 U.S. industrial production fell 0.6 percent in November 2008, led by autos
U.S. industrial production fell in November for the third time in four months, led by a slump at automakers as sales plummeted. Output at factories, mines and utilities dropped 0.6 percent, less than forecast, after an increase of 1.5 percent in October that was more than previously reported, the Federal Reserve said. Economists had forecast industrial production would fall 0.8 percent, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decline of 2 percent to a gain of 0.4 percent. Factory output, which accounts for about four-fifths of industrial production, decreased 1.4 percent, led by declines in output of metals, furniture and construction supplies as well as autos. Aircraft production was one of the only manufacturing categories showing gains during the month, as work resumed at Boeing Co. following a strike. Utility production increased 1.6 percent after rising 0.7 percent a month earlier. Mining output, which includes oil drilling, rose 2.5 percent. Motor vehicle and parts production declined 2.8 percent in November following a 3.6 percent decrease the prior month, the report said. Automakers assembled cars and light trucks at an annual rate of 7.31 million vehicles during the month, the lowest rate since January 1990. Production of consumer durable goods, including automobiles, furniture and electronics, fell 3 percent. Utility production increased 1.6 percent after rising 0.7 percent a month earlier. Mining output, which includes oil drilling, rose 2.5 percent. Capacity utilization, or the proportion of plants in use, fell to 75.4 percent from 76 percent in October. Economists had forecast that figure would fall to 75.6 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey.
14.12.2008 17:06 Russia Economy Mininstry sees 2.6 percent GDP growth in Q4 2008
The Russian Economy Ministry expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from 6.2 percent in the preceeding period, implying full-year growth of 6 percent. "Taking into account the latest Rosstat (statistics agency) data, the Economy Ministry estimates GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2008 at 2.6 percent," the ministry said. Article Controls "This means that in November-December, excluding seasonality, the growth has continued to slow down. As a whole, 2008 GDP growth will be 6 percent. It is a positive result achieved mainly thanks to first-half expansion," it said. Russia`s economy is under pressure as the global financial crisis threatens the first reversal after a decade of growth fuelled by high prices for oil, its main export commodity. Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said Russia was already in a recession that could last for more than two quarters, and that full-year economic growth would be lower than the 6.8 percent previously forecast. The comments, the first official acknowledgement the economy was shrinking, came at the end of a week of bad numbers: third quarter GDP growth was the slowest in three years and the October trade surplus hit a 13-month low. Within hours, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told a different story, trumpeting full year growth of around 6 percent for 2008 and predicting that Russia would weather the financial storm. Russia`s GDP growth slowed to 6.2 percent in the third quarter, year-on-year, down from 7.5 percent in the second quarter, while the Economy Ministry had expected it to be around 7.1 percent
09.12.2008 23:23 Japan`s GDP shrinks 1.8% in July-September 2008, enters recession
Japan`s gross domestic product contracted more than first estimated in the July-September quarter, the government said, further evidence of a deepening slump in the world`s second largest economy. The Cabinet Office said GDP Ч a measure of the value of goods and services Ч shrank at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter compared with the initial estimate of a 0.4 percent contraction. Japan`s economy slipped into recession in the third quarter of this year with GDP contracting 0.5 percent from the previous quarter. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Last week, Japan raised its estimate of fiscal 2007 economic growth to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent, citing a stronger-than-expected rise in capital investment. But the U.S. has been in a recession for a year now, adding to pressure on Japan`s export-dependent economy.
04.12.2008 21:38 Eurozone third quarter GDP shows unrevised 0.2% decline
Third-quarter gross domestic product in the 15-nation euro zone shrank by 0.2% from the second quarter, the Eurostat reported Thursday, matching the statistical agency`s preliminary estimate. On an annual basis, Eurostat revised down third quarter GDP growth to 0.6% from its preliminary estimate of 0.7%. The euro-zone economy has matched a commonly used definition of recession by contracting for two consecutive quarters. Eurostat has estimated that euro-zone GDP declined by 0.2% in the second quarter. The euro-zone announcement came a day after Europe`s biggest national economy and the world`s fourth-largest, Germany, announced its own recession. Many economists say the situation is unlikely to improve before 2010. "It`s just the beginning," Bank of America economist Gilles Moec said in a research note on Friday. "The full impact... has yet to be felt on corporate investment."
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