The Lastest Macroeconomic News
02.01.2009 12:18 The Economic Development Ministry: Russia`s GDP grew 1.6% in November 2008
Russia`s GDP grew 1.6% in November, but dropped by 0.7% when adjusted for seasonal factors, the Economic Development Ministry said. "The indication of the negative consequences of the global financial crisis on Russia`s economy grew in November. GDP growth was 1.6% after 6.9% in September and 5% in October on the same period last year," the ministry said. "Since July there has been a decline once seasonal factors are excluded, in November it was 0.7%," the ministry said. Industrial output fell 7.5% in November, the second consecutive monthly decline, the ministry reported. "The industrial production index was 91.3% in November 2008 against November 2007, which means a 7.5% output decrease as compared to October, excluding seasonal factors," the ministry`s monitoring report read. The ministry said this was the result of a recession in manufacturing industries, as well as electricity, gas and water production and distribution. According to the ministry`s preliminary forecast, Russia`s GDP in January-November grew 6.5%. Russia`s GDP will grow about 2% in 2009 while inflation will be 10-12%, presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich said. Last week, Russian Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said Russia`s forecast GDP growth for 2009 was 2.4%, while inflation was predicted to be 11% against 13.5% for this year.
28.12.2008 21:30 Russia`s GDP will grow about 2% in 2009 while inflation will be 10-12%
Russia`s GDP will grow about 2% in 2009 while inflation will be 10-12%, presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich said. Last week, Russian Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said Russia`s forecast GDP growth for 2009 was 2.4%, while inflation was predicted to be 11% against 13.5% for this year. According to the ministry`s preliminary forecast, Russia`s GDP in January-November grew 6.5%. At the same time, global economic growth will grind into a low gear in 2009, according to a new study released by the World Bank. The multilateral development bank said the world economy will expand by only 0.9 per cent next year after seeing a global GDP expansion of 2.5 per cent in 2008. The bank noted that world GDP grew by 3.7 per cent in 2007. Developing countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa, will enjoy a faster economic expansion than most industrialized countries in 2009, but are still at risk from a slowdown in export sales and as commodity prices drop, the World Bank said in releasing its forecast.
23.12.2008 23:00 The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.5% annual rate in Q3 2008
There`s been no change in the U.S. economy`s pulse, according to the most recent GDP data from the U.S. Commerce Department. The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.5% annual rate in Q3, the Commerce Department announced, in its final reading on the quarter. The rate was unrevised from the previous estimate, but it was the weakest quarterly growth rate since Q1 2001. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the economy to contract at a 0.5% annualized rate in Q3. One danger sign for the economy: consumer spending, which accounts for 60-65% of U.S. GDP, declined at a revised 3.8% annualized rate in Q3, worse than the 3.7% annualized decline estimate announced earlier. One bright spot concerns inflation: core consumer inflation, which excludes the often-volatile food and energy component, was revised lower to a 2.4% annualized rate in the quarter, from the 2.6% previous annualized rate. The 2.4% rate is roughly within the U.S. Federal Reserve`s "comfort zone" for inflation. Wang called the inflation data "very tame." Further, Wang expects the world`s largest economy to shrink at a troubling 4.0% rate in Q4, and to keep contracting through at least through the end of Q2 2009. That would mean a recession of 18 months - the longest U.S recession since 1947.
20.12.2008 22:01 Industrial production down by 1.2% in both euro area and EU27
In October 2008 compared with September 2008, seasonally adjusted industrial production1 fell by 1.2% in both the euro area (EA15) and the EU27. In September production decreased by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively. In October 2008 compared with October 2007, industrial production declined by 5.3% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU27. In October 2008 compared with September 2008, production of non-durable consumer goods grew by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU27. Production of energy fell by 0.1% and 1.1% respectively. Durable consumer goods dropped by 1.4% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU27. Capital goods declined by 2.0% and 1.7% respectively. Intermediate goods decreased by 2.0% in both zones. In October 2008, among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production fell in nineteen and grew only in Portugal (+1.3%). The most significant falls were registered in Ireland (-6.4%), Lithuania (-5.6%), Estonia (-5.0%), Latvia (-3.7%) and Romania (-3.4%). In October 2008 compared with October 2007, production of energy fell by 1.3% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods decreased by 2.5% and 2.7% respectively. Capital goods declined by 5.2% in the euro area and by 4.9% in the EU27. Intermediate goods dropped by 7.4% and 7.2% respectively. Production of durable consumer goods fell by 8.4% in the euro area and by 6.3% in the EU27. In October 2008, among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production fell in eighteen and rose only in Poland and Slovakia (both +0.1%). The most significant falls were registered in Spain (-12.8%), Estonia (-11.0%), Ireland (-10.0%), Latvia (-9.0%) and France (-7.5%).
15.12.2008 21:57 U.S. industrial production fell 0.6 percent in November 2008, led by autos
U.S. industrial production fell in November for the third time in four months, led by a slump at automakers as sales plummeted. Output at factories, mines and utilities dropped 0.6 percent, less than forecast, after an increase of 1.5 percent in October that was more than previously reported, the Federal Reserve said. Economists had forecast industrial production would fall 0.8 percent, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decline of 2 percent to a gain of 0.4 percent. Factory output, which accounts for about four-fifths of industrial production, decreased 1.4 percent, led by declines in output of metals, furniture and construction supplies as well as autos. Aircraft production was one of the only manufacturing categories showing gains during the month, as work resumed at Boeing Co. following a strike. Utility production increased 1.6 percent after rising 0.7 percent a month earlier. Mining output, which includes oil drilling, rose 2.5 percent. Motor vehicle and parts production declined 2.8 percent in November following a 3.6 percent decrease the prior month, the report said. Automakers assembled cars and light trucks at an annual rate of 7.31 million vehicles during the month, the lowest rate since January 1990. Production of consumer durable goods, including automobiles, furniture and electronics, fell 3 percent. Utility production increased 1.6 percent after rising 0.7 percent a month earlier. Mining output, which includes oil drilling, rose 2.5 percent. Capacity utilization, or the proportion of plants in use, fell to 75.4 percent from 76 percent in October. Economists had forecast that figure would fall to 75.6 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey.
14.12.2008 17:06 Russia Economy Mininstry sees 2.6 percent GDP growth in Q4 2008
The Russian Economy Ministry expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from 6.2 percent in the preceeding period, implying full-year growth of 6 percent. "Taking into account the latest Rosstat (statistics agency) data, the Economy Ministry estimates GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2008 at 2.6 percent," the ministry said. Article Controls "This means that in November-December, excluding seasonality, the growth has continued to slow down. As a whole, 2008 GDP growth will be 6 percent. It is a positive result achieved mainly thanks to first-half expansion," it said. Russia`s economy is under pressure as the global financial crisis threatens the first reversal after a decade of growth fuelled by high prices for oil, its main export commodity. Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said Russia was already in a recession that could last for more than two quarters, and that full-year economic growth would be lower than the 6.8 percent previously forecast. The comments, the first official acknowledgement the economy was shrinking, came at the end of a week of bad numbers: third quarter GDP growth was the slowest in three years and the October trade surplus hit a 13-month low. Within hours, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told a different story, trumpeting full year growth of around 6 percent for 2008 and predicting that Russia would weather the financial storm. Russia`s GDP growth slowed to 6.2 percent in the third quarter, year-on-year, down from 7.5 percent in the second quarter, while the Economy Ministry had expected it to be around 7.1 percent
09.12.2008 23:23 Japan`s GDP shrinks 1.8% in July-September 2008, enters recession
Japan`s gross domestic product contracted more than first estimated in the July-September quarter, the government said, further evidence of a deepening slump in the world`s second largest economy. The Cabinet Office said GDP — a measure of the value of goods and services — shrank at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter compared with the initial estimate of a 0.4 percent contraction. Japan`s economy slipped into recession in the third quarter of this year with GDP contracting 0.5 percent from the previous quarter. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Last week, Japan raised its estimate of fiscal 2007 economic growth to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent, citing a stronger-than-expected rise in capital investment. But the U.S. has been in a recession for a year now, adding to pressure on Japan`s export-dependent economy.
04.12.2008 21:38 Eurozone third quarter GDP shows unrevised 0.2% decline
Third-quarter gross domestic product in the 15-nation euro zone shrank by 0.2% from the second quarter, the Eurostat reported Thursday, matching the statistical agency`s preliminary estimate. On an annual basis, Eurostat revised down third quarter GDP growth to 0.6% from its preliminary estimate of 0.7%. The euro-zone economy has matched a commonly used definition of recession by contracting for two consecutive quarters. Eurostat has estimated that euro-zone GDP declined by 0.2% in the second quarter. The euro-zone announcement came a day after Europe`s biggest national economy and the world`s fourth-largest, Germany, announced its own recession. Many economists say the situation is unlikely to improve before 2010. "It`s just the beginning," Bank of America economist Gilles Moec said in a research note on Friday. "The full impact... has yet to be felt on corporate investment."
26.11.2008 22:30 US GDP revised down to a 0.5% decline in the 3Q 2008
U.S. Gross domestic product, the output of goods and services produced by property located in the U.S, has declined in the third quarter of the year, according to preliminary estimates by the Department of Commerce. The GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2008 shows a 0.5% decline, down from the 0.3% decline previously estimated the decline reflects negative contributions from Personal Consumption Expenditures, residential fixed investment, and equipment and software, partially offset by positive contributions from federal government spending, private inventory investment, exports, non-residential structures, and state and local government spending. Imports, which substract from the GDP, have declined. The price index for gross domestic purchases has increased 4.7% in the third quarter, down from the 4.8% increase in the previous quarter. Real Personal Consumption expenditures have decreased 3.7% in the third quarter, after a 1.2% increase in the previous quaetter.
24.11.2008 22:27 Unemployment in Russia grew by 1.7%, to 4.624 million people in October
Unemployment in Russia grew by 1.7%, to 4.624 million people in October, according to the state statistics service, Rosstat. However, the number of formally registered jobless people keeps declining. The Healthcare and Social Development Ministry, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and trade unions have agreed to meet weekly to exchange information and select struggling companies in non-financial sectors requiring urgent assistance. Until last week, official estimates said the liquidity crisis was not affecting the labor market. In early November, Deputy Healthcare Minister Maxim Topilin said with conviction that they were not expecting employment layoffs to be higher than statistical average. The reduced working week at industrial giants KamAZ, GAZ or MMK had been long planned according to him. However, the Independent Trade Unions Federation said business activity was plummeting in various sectors of the national economy, including metals, construction, engineering and the automobile industry, and that settlements were delayed under contracts including state orders (in the light industry and in radio electronics). As a result, companies resort to shortening working hours or cutting personnel. And yet, the number of people registered as unemployed keeps decreasing, to 1.245 million in October from 1.552 million at the beginning of this year.
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