The Lastest Macroeconomic News
22.07.2012 18:38 Russia`s economy may expand at a faster pace than expected this year
Russia`s economy may expand at a faster pace than expected this year, after growth in the first half topped the government`s forecast, the country`s economic development minister Andrei Belousov said. "There are a number of signs that the economy is really growing somewhat faster than we had planned -- the rapid growth of investment and decent figures for the manufacturing industry," Mr. Belousov said. Preliminary data show that gross domestic product increased 3.9% in the second quarter, and 4.4% overall in the first half. Growth slowed somewhat in the second quarter from the 4.9% pace seen in the first. Still, growth over the first six months is above the Moscow`s forecast of 3.4% in all of 2012. "By year end, we expect slightly better growth than predicted, but I don`t want to give an exact estimate at the moment," he added. In June, Mr. Belousov said growth may reach 3.7% or 4% for the year. Mr. Belousov also said that figures released by the Russian Federal Statistics Service that showed industrial production stagnated in June, were simply a seasonal anomaly.
18.07.2012 17:35 The loser countries which lowered billions on passion
The general loss of all states, only for last year, including an offline and online, reached a point in $387 000 000 000. With an enormous separation from other participants of a rating in leaders there is a special Chinese area - Hong Kong. Inhabitants of Hong Kong "lowered" on passion more than $1 000 000 000. But the essence is covered not in the sum, and that the size makes more than 30 % of all Hong Kong losses - a record. For comparison: in America more than $100 000 000 000 are lost, however $4 000 000 000 are the share of online only, and these are 4 % from the general figure. By the way, inhabitants of the USA are unprecedented champions on size of losses for last year. It is simple to count up that more than 25 % of all expenses of inhabitants of the earth for hazardous entertainments drop out to the United States. Any state not in forces even to come nearer to this "achievement". Sweden holds the second place in a rating online of losses. And it, apparently, civilized and modest country. In principle, all know, passion and how many known players in poker came from this state is inherent in how northern countries. As follows, inhabitants of Sweden lost mute big, than $3 000 000 00, from them 23 % are the share of online. Great Britain closes top-3 leaders. Here the sums on an order are more powerful - $17 600 000 000 losses and 21 % from them drop to the Internet. Also there is also an additional rating in which Japan follows America - more than $35 000 000 000, but only 12 % from them at a network. Japanese hold the 4th place in the general rating. According to «H2 GamblingCapital» forecasts in 2015 the general losses can reach a point in $450 000 000 000 and from them about 10 % will drop to online.
17.07.2012 15:03 The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth
The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its forecast for global economic growth and warned that the outlook could dim further if policymakers in the euro zone do not act with enough force and speed to quell their region`s debt crisis. In a mid-year health check of the world economy, the IMF said emerging market nations, long a global bright spot, were being dragged down by the economic turmoil in Europe. It said a drop in exports in these countries would combine with earlier policies meant to prevent overheating and slow growth more sharply than hoped. The IMF shaved its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.9 percent from the 4.1 percent it projected in April, trimming projections for most advanced and emerging economies. It left its 2012 forecast unchanged at 3.5 percent. "Downside risks to this weaker global outlook continue to loom large," the IMF said. "The most immediate risk is still that delayed or insufficient policy action will further escalate the euro area crisis."
The global lender said advanced economies would grow only 1.4 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2013.
It also trimmed its forecast for emerging economies, projecting they will expand 5.9 percent in 2013 and 5.6 percent in 2012. Both figures are 0.1 of a percentage point lower than in April. The IMF cut its 2013 growth forecast for the crisis-hit euro zone to 0.7 percent, while maintaining its projection of a 0.3 percent contraction this year. It said it now believes Spain`s economy will shrink both this year and next.
The IMF sharply revised down its growth projections for the United Kingdom to 0.2 percent this year and to 1.4 percent in 2013. In April, the fund said the UK economy would expand 0.8 percent in 2012 and 2.0 percent next year.
The IMF said the European Central Bank had room to ease policy further and said officials in emerging economies should stand ready to cope with a drop in trade and increased volatility in capital flows.
The IMF cut its 2012 growth forecast for China to 8.0 percent from 8.2 percent, and said it now expects growth of 8.5 percent next year, down from 8.8 percent.
It revised its growth projections for India to 6.1 percent this year from 6.9 percent, and chopped its 2013 forecast to 6.5 percent from 7.3 percent. Meanwhile, Africa`s growth is still seen at a robust 5.4 percent this year and 5.3 percent in 2013, as the region remains relatively insulated from external financial shocks.
The IMF said growth in the Middle East will be stronger this year as key oil-producing countries boost production and Libya`s economy rebounds from conflict in 2011, but it held its forecast for next year at 3.7 percent.
15.07.2012 10:35 Russia`s gross domestic product grew by up to 4% in the second quarter of 2012
Russia`s gross domestic product grew by up to 4% in the second quarter, showing resilience amid a drop in oil prices, slowing growth in China and an ongoing sovereign-debt crisis in Europe. The upbeat data come on the heels of better-than-expected results for the first quarter, when the economy grew by 4.9%. It also comes amid serious setbacks for some of Russia`s peers in the so-called BRIC group of countries: China`s economy grew at its slowest pace in three years in the second quarter, Brazil cut its key interest rate to an all-time low to fire up its sluggish growth, while on the same day India`s 2012 economic growth forecast was cut by the Asian Development Bank to 6.5% from 7%. Russia`s growth, by comparison, has been slower, but steady. The economy ministry has said it may raise this year`s forecast of 3.4% growth, and GDP growth is expected to remain at a dependable 3% to 4% for the next several years -- a slowdown from 2011. Sovereign debt remains at around 10%, way below the U.S. and many of Russia`s European neighbors, while on-year inflation ran at an all-time low of 3.6% in April and May. The country also has around $150 billion stashed away in a pair of windfall oil-wealth funds to help buoy the economy in case of a crisis. So far, the big driver has been an 11% jump in government spending, as well as consumer spending helped along by low inflation and a rising investment as political uncertainty dissipated after President Vladimir Putin`s convincing election victory in March. A nearly free-floating ruble helped cushion the economy from a more than 25% drop in oil prices -- a policy that would have serves Russia well in 2008, when the central bank spent more than $200 billion in reserves defending the country`s currency. To be sure, Russia`s road ahead is far from smooth. On-year inflation jumped to 5% as of July 9 on the back of a hike in utility tariffs and a surge in food prices, which is likely to crimp consumer spending going forward. With elections over and the global economic picture cloudy, the government may choose to delay promised spending or cut it altogether, economists said.
14.07.2012 12:03 China`s economy expanded 7.6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2012
China`s economy expanded 7.6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2012, slowing from 8.1 percent in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The figure, which marked the sixth consecutive quarter of decline, revealed the slowest growth pace since the first quarter of 2009 and was within market expectation of below 8 percent. On a quarterly basis, the country`s economy grew 1.8 percent in the second quarter, NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun said at a press conference. According to preliminary statistics, the country`s GDP grew 7.8 percent year-on-year to reach 22.71 trillion yuan ($3.6 trillion) during the first half, Sheng said. Although the economic growth rate continued to slow in the second quarter, it was "rather good" compared with developed nations and other emerging economies, Sheng noted. Given the sluggish external market and global economic woes, China lowered its full-year growth target for 2012 to 7.5 percent in early March, after its economy grew 9.2 percent in 2011 from the previous year. Retail sales increased 14.4 percent from one year earlier in the first half, slower than the 14.8-percent growth registered in the first quarter. Fixed-asset investment, one of the principal drivers of China`s economy, grew 20.4 percent year-on-year to 15.07 trillion yuan. The growth rate moderated by 0.5 percentage point compared to that in the first quarter, and was down 5.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Official data showed that investment in the property sector, which directly accounts for about 13 percent of gross domestic product, rose 16.6 percent year-on-year in the first half, down from 32.9 percent last year. The country`s inflation eased to a 29-month low of 2.2 percent in June, leaving the government ample room to introduce more pro-growth measures to boost the slowing economy.
10.07.2012 18:43 The UK economy likely contracted for a third straight quarter in the three months to June
The UK economy likely contracted for a third straight quarter in the three months to June, deepening the country`s recession, a think-tank said. The economic performance was distorted by the additional public holiday to celebrate Queen Elizabeth II`s Diamond Jubilee, and underlying growth was more robust than the data suggest, the National Institute of Economic Research said. NIESR estimates gross domestic product contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, compared with a 0.3% drop in the first quarter of the year. The UK economy is in recession, defined by most economists as two consecutive quarters of contraction. GDP shrank 0.3% in both the first quarter of 2012 and fourth quarter of last year, compared with the previous period, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics. Year-over-year UK Industrial Production fell by 1.6% in May, following a 2.0% drop in April, National Statistics informed. This is a more positive result that the forecasted 2.1% decrease. UK Industrial Production rose by 1% between April 2012 and May 2012, in comparison with the 0.4% decline registered between March 2012 and April 2012 and against expectations of a 0.2% drop. On an annual basis UK Manufacturing Production fell by 1.7% in May, after decreasing 1.5% in April and above expectations of a 1.9% decline. Between April 2012 and May 2012 UK Manufacturing Production rose 1.2%, following a 0.8% drop between March 2012 and April 2012 and exceeding market consensus of 0.1% growth. The UK`s trade gap narrowed in May, helped by a boost in exports. The trade deficit - a measure of how much imports exceed exports - fell to £2.7bn, compared with £4.1bn in April, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. The seasonally adjusted volume of exports was 6.6% higher, while imports rose 1%. The goods deficit was £8.4bn, compared to £9.7bn in April, while services showed an unchanged surplus of £5.6bn.
04.07.2012 12:21 The IMF lowered its 2012 and 2013 GDP forecast for the U.S. economy
The International Monetary Fund lowered its 2012 GDP forecast for the U.S. economy on July 3th to 2 percent from an already low 2.1 percent. Ironically, the IMF said that the Barack Obama Administration may be slicing its own throat by shrinking the government payroll, adding to a lackluster job market and slower growth. They warned that Washington was slicing the deficit too fast for the weak economy. Moreover, the economy was under threat from the pre-programmed “fiscal cliff” combination of sharp spending cuts and tax increases at the year-end, and a worsening of the eurozone crisis. An IMF team, led by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Assistant Director of the Western Hemisphere Department, met with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and other senior U.S. officials from May 21 to July 2 to conduct the annual review. “The United States remains vulnerable to contagion from an intensification of the euro area debt crisis, which would be transmitted mainly via a generalized increase in risk aversion and lower asset prices, as well as from trade channels” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said during a press conference in Washington, D.C. The IMF said in a statement on its website that it expects U.S. growth to remain modest til 2014 due to a weak housing market, the expiration of fiscal stimulus measures, and continued low global demand for U.S. goods and services, particularly in Europe. As a result, the U.S. economy is currently projected to grow by 2,25 percent in 2013.
03.07.2012 11:56 Official unemployment in Russia went down by 4.4% in June and now equals 1.14mln people
Official unemployment in Russia went down by 4.4% in June and now equals 1.14mln people, the Ministry of Labour and Social Security press-service reported. In June, the number of the unemployed dropped in 81 out of 83 regions of the country. According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, in May the total unemployment in Russia equalled 4.1mln people, which is 5.4% of the economically active population - the lowest level in at least 13 years. That`s less than the 5.7 percent median forecast of 12 economists in a Bloomberg survey. That`s less than the 5.7 percent median forecast of 12 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Retail sales grew 6.8 percent from a year earlier in May, the statistics service said. That`s quicker than April`s 6.4 percent advance, which was the slowest pace in nine months, and more than the 6.1 percent median estimate of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Real wages grew 11.1 percent and real disposable incomes rose 3.6 percent in May, compared with 9.6 percent and 2.7 percent median estimates in two Bloomberg polls. Fixed-capital investment advanced 7.7 percent compared with 7.8 percent in April, beating the 6.9 percent median forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey. The government reduced its projection for economic growth this year to 3.4 percent from 3.7 percent, saying investment will be weaker than initially estimated.
28.06.2012 15:47 Fitch revised down it world GDP forecast by 0.1 point for both 2012 and 2013
The latest economic forecasts from rating agencies Standard & Poor`s and Fitch show the latter remains more optimistic about U.S. economic growth than its larger rival, especially for next year. Fitch released for the first time its GDP projection for 2014, expecting the U.S. economy to grow at a pace of 3.0%, slightly more than the 2.9% expected by Standard & Poor`s. The gap between the two agencies` GDP projections is slightly wider for this year: 2.2% for Fitch and 2.0% for S&P. But the largest divergence is for 2013, when the U.S. GDP growth rate is expected to reach 2.1% by S&P and 2.6% by Fitch`s estimate. In its Global Economic Outlook, Fitch revised down it world GDP forecast by 0.1 point for both 2012 and 2013, led by downward revisions in the euro zone but even more so -- for 2012 -- by emerging markets. The latter are losing steam, the rating agency said, expecting BRICs -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- to grow at a pace of 6.0% this year and 6.6%, revised down by 0.3 point, and 6.6% in 2013, which was unrevised. Even as emerging markets growth is still expected to outpace that of major advanced economies by a significant margin over the next two years, "The vulnerabilities of future BRICs growth to domestic and global shocks have increased," Fitch said. In the eurozone, GDP is expected to decline this year by 0.4% before recovering 0.9% in 2013, both revised down 0.2 point. "Financial tension has resurfaced in the eurozone and the negative impact on GDP growth will be significant," Fitch said. Fitch`s global growth forecast is 2.2% for 2012 and 2.8% in 2013, compared with 2.3% and 2.9% in the previous Global Economic Outlook. In the U.S., noting the recent slowdown in the job market signaling weaker business sentiment, Fitch expects it "to be offset by continued resilience in consumer spending." For 2012 and 2013, Fitch has kept its U.S. growth forecast unchanged at 2.2% and 2.6% respectively, and projects and average growth of 3.0% in 2014. Turning to monetary policy in major advanced economies, Fitch said record low interest rates are likely to stay in place through mid-2013, warning that "The impact of further monetary stimulus would be doubtful given the already minimal yields of safe haven assets at longer maturity." Standard & Poor`s expects the U.S. GDP to grow at a pace of 2.0% this year, 2.1% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015. It does not expect the unemployment rate to fall below 8% before 2014, with the improvement accelerating the following year to 7.1%. Standard & Poor`s remains the most pessimistic of the Big Three, as Moody`s sees U.S. real GDP rate rising to 2.6% next year from 2.3% this year, slightly more than Fitch`s 2.2% forecast. However, Moody`s forecasts included in its May 15 Credit Opinion refer to fiscal years.
22.06.2012 13:43 Germany`s Ifw think tank raised its 2012 growth forecast for Europe`s largest economy
Germany`s Ifw think tank raised its 2012 growth forecast for Europe`s largest economy by 0.2 percentage points to 0.9 percent due to low interest rates but cut its 2013 forecast, saying the euro zone debt crisis had dampened prospects. The Kiel-based Institute for World Economy (IfW) said that the crisis was having a negative impact on business sentiment and was reducing investment. It added however that this had not substantially altered the outlook for a strong increase in production this year. The German economy grew by 0.5 percent in the first quarter but the IfW said its growth dynamics would be weaker in the rest of the year. The institute downgraded its forecast for 2013 gross domestic product by 0.2 percentage points to 1.7 percent. The institute said the benefits to the German economy from low interest rates would feed through even more in 2013 as long as the euro zone crisis did not worsen further. Companies will invest more in equipment, while private consumption will benefit from the good outlook on the labour market, the institute said. The IfW also said exports would gradually pick up, especially as the economy in Germany`s trading partners recovers. But it warned that growth in exports would not be significant and that foreign trade overall would slow down Germany`s economic expansion as imports increased more quickly.