The Lastest Macroeconomic News
25.08.2009 15:30 Russia`s GDP declined by 10.2% in January-July 2009 year-on-year
Russia`s GDP declined by 9.3% in July 2009 year-on-year and 10.2% in the first seven months of the year, a deputy economics minister said. However, Andrei Klepach said the economic slump has now ended, and that the economy is showing signs of revival. According to Economics Ministry data, investment increased 0.3% in July from June, taking into account the seasonal factor, but fell by 18.9% year-on-year. "Although the revival is not yet stable or intense, this is a major positive development, which means that the recession is now over, with slight growth emerging," the official said. However, he said it would take Russia several years to overcome the consequences of the crisis, and bring production volumes back to pre-crisis levels. Russia`s trade surplus halved to $9 billion in July 2009 against last July`s $8.7 billion, according to ministry data. The ministry has estimated that Russian exports in July stood at $25 billion against $24 billion in June, but fell by 47.2% against last July`s $47.3 billion. The ministry`s forecast for inflation is 0.3%-0.4% in August. The statistics service Rosstat put inflation at 0.6% in July, and 8.3% since the start of the year.
22.08.2009 16:07 GDP of Japan grew 3.7 percent from the year earlier in the second quarter
The world`s second-biggest economy grew by 0.9pc in the second quarter – bringing to an end a year of severe recession, official figures showed. From the year earlier GDP of Japan grew 3.7 percent. The news means three of the seven G7 members which have now published statistics are expanding again. However, economists warned both that the fast pace of growth in the second quarter was unlikely to be sustained and that Japan still had many more years of expansion before it makes up for the output lost during the past year. Japan`s bounce owes a large part to its massive programme of fiscal stimulus, in which the Government boosted spending and cut taxes, at the cost of around 4pc of gross domestic product. The Government figures showed that exports grew by 6.3pc during the quarter while private consumption grew 0.8pc. Fears rally is over as shares tumble However, much like France and Germany, Japan`s nominal gross domestic product, which also takes into account the prices of goods, still fell by 0.2pc, since during the period prices dropped by 1.1pc. As such, the figures do little to dispel continuing concerns that the world remains close to a deflation trap as the weight of falling asset prices depresses growth. Unemployment is still high and rising even in economies which have recovered their growth. In Japan, the jobless rate has risen to a six-year high of 5.4pc.
17.08.2009 20:52 Industrial output in Russia shrank by 10.8 percent in July from a year before
Industrial output in Russia shrank by 10.8 percent in July from a year before but rose by nearly 5 percent compared to a month earlier, the Federal Statistics Service reported August 17th, suggesting the worst of the recession is over. The yearly rate of decline in manufacturing was the slowest this year after a 12.1 percent drop in June, when the sector showed its first signs of stabilization. Russia`s economy shrank by 10.1 percent in the January-June period, but some analysts believe it has passed the worst of its economic downturn, with investment and retail sales figures in particular showing improvement. Russia is weathering its first recession in a decade as oil prices -- the backbone of its economy -- slumped and many foreign investors fled the country.
15.08.2009 11:56 Euro area GDP down by 0.1% and EU27 GDP down by 0.3%
GDP declined by 0.1% in the euro area (EA16) and by 0.3% in the EU27 during the second quarter of 2009, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In the first quarter of 2009, growth rates were -2.5% in the euro area and -2.4% in the EU27. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 4.6% in the euro area and by 4.8% in the EU27 in the second quarter of 2009, after -4.9% and -4.7% respectively in the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2009, US GDP decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, after -1.6% in the first quarter. US GDP decreased by 3.9% compared with the same quarter of the previous year (-3.3% in the previous quarter). In June 2009 compared with May 2009, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA16) and by 0.2% in the EU27. In May production grew by 0.6% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. In June 2009 compared with June 2008, industrial production declined by 17.0% in the euro area and by 15.6% in the EU27. These estimates are released by Eurostat. In June 2009 compared with May 2009, production of non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.2% in the euro area, but fell by 0.1% in the EU27. Capital goods dropped by 0.3% in the euro area, but grew by 0.4% in the EU27. Intermediate goods declined by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Production of energy decreased by 1.1% in the euro area, but rose by 0.4% in the EU27. Durable consumer goods fell by 4.2% and 3.9% respectively. In June 2009 compared with June 2008, production of non-durable consumer goods fell by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU27. Production of energy decreased by 9.0% and 4.2% respectively. Capital goods declined by 21.9% in the euro area and by 20.5% in the EU27. Intermediate goods dropped by 22.2% and 21.3% respectively. Durable consumer goods fell by 24.9% in the euro area and by 21.8% in the EU27.
11.08.2009 22:20 China has reported GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 7.9%, relative to 6.1% in Q1
Surpassing even recent upgraded forecasts, China has reported GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 7.9%, relative to 6.1% in Q1. Forecasts for the full year include the International Monetary Fund at 7.5%, Goldman`s at 8.3% and the Chinese government`s own estimate of 8.0%. Responding to the news, other economists scrambled to improve their targets for this year and 2010. Also announced were strong increases in industrial output 10.7% better in June, year-on-year whilst fixed asset investment jumped more than 30% in H1 2009 relative to the same period a year earlier. The Chinese economy has enjoyed substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2009 which has attracted significant investment, partly due to the paucity of attractive big-ticket opportunities elsewhere globally. The stimulus has effectively off-set the loss of export generated revenue due to reduced demand from key trading partners. The news follows the confirmation of China, for the first time, reaching $2 trillion in reserves. UBS economist Wang Tao too raised GDP projections for 2009 (from 7.5% to 8.2%), but pointed out that inflation expectation had risen and increasing concerns about asset market bubble and future non-performing loans had already led to the central bank stepping up its sterilisation operations and stricter enforcement of existing regulations on bank lending. "In the coming months, we expect these types of targeted adjustment in policies to continue as the government tries to avoid large volatilities in the economy."
27.07.2009 22:16 GDP of Russia fell 10.1 percent from January to June this year
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Russia fell 10.1 percent from January to June this year, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said. "We can talk about some moderation of the pace of the contraction," Nabiullina said. She added that the industrial output index, calculated on seasonally adjusted basis, was up 0.8 percent month-on-month in June. She estimated that Russia`s economy may shrink 8 percent to 8.5 percent in 2009, news agencies reported. Nabiullina said there have been positive signs for the economy as industrial output increased 0.8 percent in the first half of this year. The minister believed the Russian economy can overcome the negative effects of the current financial and economic crisis as it will gradually ease with government`s anti-crisis measures taking effect. The ministry previously expected Russia`s economy to fall 6 percent to 8 percent this year, while a World Bank report put the figure at 7.5 percent.
19.07.2009 18:26 Russia`s GDP should grow by around 1.0% in 2010, 2.6% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012
Russia`s ministry for economic development has changed its forecast for the country`s 2009 gross domestic product decline to 8.5%, from an earlier forecast of a 6% contraction. GDP should grow minimally next year, by around 1.0%, and then grow by 2.6% in 2011 and by 3.8% in 2012, the agency cited the official as saying. The ministry also revised down its forecast for the country`s industrial output for 2009 to a decline of 12.5% from an earlier forecast of a 9.3% fall, the agency reported. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects Russia`s gross domestic product to fall 6.8% this year, a sharper contraction than forecast in March, citing further erosion of domestic demand, falling investment and declining output. However, it expects stronger GDP growth in 2010 than previously forecast. In March, the OECD forecast a 5.6% fall in GDP from a previous estimate of 2.3% GDP growth. The new forecast falls into the range of the latest official estimate given by the Russian government, which expects GDP contraction of between 6% and 8% this year. Between January and May, the country`s economy contracted 10.2%, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. "Reflecting extreme weakness in early 2009, growth for the year as a whole will be sharply negative," the OECD said in its report. "Output declines may end as early as the second quarter, however, and positive growth is expected to continue through 2010." This recovery, the OECD concluded, should allow Russia to record GDP growth next year of 3.7%. This is higher than the organization`s previous estimate of 0.7% growth. In an overall positive report, which forecasts the economy lifting itself out of the crisis faster than many local and international observers expect, the OECD kept its inflation forecast unchanged, saying it may fall back into single digits this year, to 8%, while the government`s official inflation target is around 13%.
15.07.2009 20:51 US industrial output down 0.4 percent in June 2009
After having fallen 1.2% in May, industrial production decreased 0.4% in June, the Federal Reserved reported on July 15. For the second quarter as a whole, output fell at an annual rate of 11.6%, a more moderate contraction than in the first quarter, when output fell 19.1%. Manufacturing output moved down 0.6% in June, compared with a 1.2% drop in May. Production of durable goods fell 0.7%. The indexes for machinery; computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and motor vehicles and parts all posted decreases of more than 1%. Output increased for several industries, most notably for wood products, primary metals, and miscellaneous manufacturing. The gain of 1.7% for primary metals follows 10 consecutive monthly decreases for the industry. The output of nondurable goods fell 0.4%. Declines in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products; apparel and leather; paper; and chemicals were only partly offset by increases in the indexes for printing and support, petroleum and coal products, and plastics and rubber products. The output of business equipment fell 0.8% in June. The production of industrial and other equipment and of information processing equipment declined, while the output of transit equipment was unchanged. Transit equipment fell in the second quarter after having increased substantially in the first quarter, when the output of aircraft rebounded from a strike. The output of defense and space equipment increased 0.8% in June.
06.07.2009 22:45 Unemployment in the 16 countries that use the euro spiked to a 10-year high in May
Unemployment in the 16 countries that use the euro spiked to a 10-year high in May, reinforcing concerns any recovery will take time with so many people out of work. Eurostat, the statistics office of the EU, said Thursday the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the euro zone in May stood at 9.5 percent, up from April`s 9.3 percent. The increase was expected in the markets in light of the ongoing fall in output across Europe — in the first quarter of 2009, the euro zone economy saw output plunge by 2.5 percent as the global recession hit the industrial sector in particular. The unemployment rate was at its highest level since May 1999. Spain is the euro zone`s biggest casualty. Its jobless rate rose to 18.7 percent in May from 18 percent in April. The lowest unemployment rate in the euro zone was in the Netherlands where only 3.2 percent of the working population were without a job in May, and Austria, where only 4.3 percent were jobless. The unemployment rate in Germany, Europe`s biggest economy, was unchanged at 7.7 percent in May. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, so the number of jobless will likely continue to rise for a while even when the recession officially ends. Recent economic releases have stoked hopes that the euro zone may start to see some sort of recovery towards the end of the year but that high unemployment levels will continue to weigh on consumption and sentiment. The unemployment news comes just hours ahead of the European Central Bank`s latest interest rate decision. Though the rate-setting governing council is set to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the record low of 1 percent, its president Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to note the recent improving economic signals though maintaining his view that recovery will take time. Including the eleven countries that don`t use the euro but are in the EU, such as Britain and Sweden, the unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent in May from 8.7 percent in the previous month. May`s rate was the highest since June 2005. The EU-wide rate has been swelled by the Baltic countries, which are in a deep recession following the collapse of debt-fueled economic boom. Latvia, whose economy slumped by a staggering 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, saw its unemployment rate, climb to 16.3 percent in May from 15.3 percent in April. Analysts expect June`s U.S. unemployment rate to rise around 0.3 of a percentage point to 9.7 percent and that another 400,000 jobs were lost during the month. Though still high, the job losses are way down on the numbers recorded earlier in the year. That improving trend was evident in a survey Wednesday from the ADP private payrolls firm, which showed that private sector employment fell by 473,000 in June, down on the 532,000 jobs shed in May.
25.06.2009 22:44 Russia`s GDP plunged 11 percent in May compared to the same period last year
Russia`s gross domestic product (GDP) plunged 11 percent in May compared to the same period last year, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said. The economy contracted 10.2 percent from January to May this year, compared to the same period of 2008, the Interfax news agency quoted Klepach as saying. "The economy is close to the lowest point of its contraction. In several sectors close to the global situation, a revival has been seen and exports can be expected to grow, but the sectors tied to investment demand are showing a major decline," Klepach said. Given the 10 percent decline over the first five months, Klepach said, lowering the economic slump to 6.8 percent for this year would be "a heroic act for our economy." Russia`s economy, heavily dependent on exports of energy and raw materials, was hit hard by the global financial crisis. Russian GDP contracted by 9.8 percent year-on-year in the first four months of this year. The Russian economy will shrink by 7.9 percent in 2009 despite a recent rise in commodity prices, the World Bank said on Wednesday, a much sharper contraction than the 4.5 percent it forecast earlier. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects Russia`s gross domestic product to fall 6.8% this year, a sharper contraction than forecast in March, citing further erosion of domestic demand, falling investment and declining output. However, it expects stronger GDP growth in 2010 than previously forecast. In March, the OECD forecast a 5.6% fall in GDP from a previous estimate of 2.3% GDP growth.
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