The Lastest Macroeconomic News
10.06.2008 22:50 World Bank cuts 2008 global GDP growth forecast due to oil, food prices
The World Bank cut its 2008 global growth forecast to 2.7%, citing rising food and oil prices. In January 2008, the bank predicted that global growth would total 3.3% for the year. The global economy grew 3.7% in 2007. Further, the bank now sees 2008 emerging market GDP growth totaling 6.5%, down from its earlier 7.8% forecast. The bank called high energy and food prices "a major worry" and added that they "are the dominant force behind increased inflation across developing countries". Also, the World Bank expects the U.S. economy to grow 1.1% in 2008, a downward revision from the bank`s earlier 1.9% forecast. Meanwhile, the bank expects Europe`s 15-nation euro zone to grow 1.7%, down from the earlier estimate of 2.8%. Japan`s economy is expected to grow 1.4%, down from the earlier estimate of 2%. Further, the World Bank also sees a considerable slowdown in China`s economy in 2008, but GDP growth is still expected to remain very strong. The bank now sees China`s GDP increasing 9.4%, down from the earlier 11.9% estimate. The World Bank`s revised GDP growth forecasts for 2008 and 2009 by region are: Euro zone, 1.7% and 1.5%; Europe and Central Asia, 5.8% and 5.4%; South Asia, 6.6% and 7.2%; Latin America, 4.5% and 4.3%; Middle East and North Africa, 5.5% and 5.3%; and Sub-Saharan Africa, 6.3% and 5.6%.
06.06.2008 21:17 Japan`s gdp growth is forecasted to slow in the second quarter
Japan`s economy is at a difficult stage as soaring oil prices bite and growth in exports slows somewhat, former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata said on Monday. Iwata also said at his first news conference as head of the Cabinet Office`s Economic and Social Research Institute that the government`s research body would continue its efforts to brush up its method to better calculate gross domestic product (GDP) data amid criticism that GDP figures fluctuate too much after revisions. Iwata, who retired from the central bank in March when his five-year term as one of the two deputy governors expired, declined to comment on the BOJ`s monetary policy. Japan`s industrial production and capital spending are flat and growth in corporate profits is slowing, though at high levels, Iwata said, noting that prices of oil and food prices kept rising. "Exports have been firm but recently their growth has somewhat slowed," Iwata said. "The economy is at a difficult stage." Iwata said Japan`s economy was gradually overcoming a decade of deflation, although it was too early to say deflation was completely over. Japan`s economic growth is expected to slow to 1.7 percent this year and to 1.5 percent in 2009, compared with 2.1 percent last year, the OECD predicted. Economists forecast Japan`s GDP will grow 0.3 percent in the second quarter.
03.06.2008 21:22 Euro zone Q1 GDP growth revised to 0.8 pct from 0.7
Euro zone GDP growth grew 0.8 percent in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of last year, and was up 2.2 percent year-on-year, EU statistics office Eurostat said. The figures show an upward revision to provisional figures reported on May 15. Eurostat provisionally put first quarter growth at 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter. Its year-on-year estimate was unchanged. Eurostat revised its fourth quarter figures to a quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent and to a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent. The agency gave a breakdown of first quarter GDP for the first time. It said household consumption rose 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter and investment rose 1.6 percent. Government spending rose 0.4 percent and inventories increased by 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, exports increased 1.9 percent and imports rose 1.8 percent. Household consumption made a positive contribution of 0.1 percentage points to the quarterly GDP figure, while investment made a positive contribution of 0.4 points. Changes in inventories made a positive contribution of 0.2 points and government spending accounted for 0.1 percentage points of the GDP increase. Net exports contributed 0.1 points.
29.05.2008 20:55 US Q1 economic growth revised higher to 0.9% pace
US economic momentum posted a 0.9 percent annual growth pace in the first quarter of the year, the government said Thursday in a report which calmed the nerves of some economists. In its initial revision of first quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the Commerce Department hiked its estimate compared with an prior assumption that pegged growth at a lackluster 0.6 percent. The revision, largely in line with expectations, bolsters the stance of some economists who believe the world`s largest economy will avoid a recession despite a deep housing slump, a related credit crunch and soaring oil prices. The revised reading left consumer spending, a critical driver of economic growth, pegged at a 1.0 percent growth rate which marked a considerable moderation from the fourth quarter`s 2.3 percent. Consumer spending on services showed a 3.0 percent growth clip compared with a lesser 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, but spending on durable goods declined 6.2 percent against a positive 2.0 percent in the prior quarter. Real residential fixed investment, which tracks new home construction, slumped 25.5 percent during the quarter after falling a similar 25.2 percent during the last three months of 2007. Business spending outside housing declined 0.2 percent in the quarter, following a 6.0 percent gain in the prior three month period. The combined exports of goods and services added 0.80 percentage points to growth, partly as exports were propped up by the ailing dollar. Exports grew 2.8 percent during the period while imports fell 2.6 percent. Some imported goods have become more pricey for Americans to purchase because the dollar has fallen sharply in value against foreign currencies. An inflation barometer in the report showed a key price index linked to GDP rose 3.5 percent while core prices, excluding food and energy costs, rose at a 2.1 percent clip. First quarter growth will be revised a final time in coming weeks.
27.05.2008 22:48 Russia`s year-on-year GDP grew 8.4 percent in April 2008
Russia`s GDP grew 8.4 pct year-on-year in April and 8.3 pct in the first fourth months of 2008, a deputy Russian economics minister said. Andrei Klepach said the GDP forecast for 2008 was 7.6 pct, compared to 8.1 pct in 2007. The minister said growth has been boosted by strong investment activity and consumer demand. Russia`s industrial output grew 6.9 pct year-on-year in January-April, the state statistics service Rosstat said. In April, output grew 14.5 pct year-on-year in manufacturing industries and 28.8 pct in car production.
23.05.2008 22:12 Russia`s unemployment grew 4.2 pct y/y in April, year-to-date inflation - 7.2 pct
The number of unemployed in Russia grew by 4.2 percent on year to 5 million in April, which accounts for 6.6 percent of the economically active population, Russia`s Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported. The unemployment sank 3.3 percent vs. March. The number of unemployed in Russia lowered 0.6 percent on year from January through April, Rosstat reported. The country`s population declined by 80,900 (or 0.06 percent) in the first quarter to 141.9 million by April 1. The population reduction could be primarily blamed on the natural loss, which, however, went down by 26,700 on year from January through March. The migration grew by 41.9 percent during the period. The number of births grew in 80 constituents of Russia, and the number of deaths was up in 58 constituents. Overall, the country`s death toll was 1.3 fold above the birthrate in the first quarter (vs. 1.4 fold a year earlier). Russia`s inflation stood at 0.3 percent between May 13 and May 19, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported today. Meanwhile, month-to-date inflation amounted to 0.8 percent and year-to-date inflation was 7.2 percent, compared to 0.6 percent and 4.5 percent respectively in 2007. Granulated sugar and polished rice prices saw the highest increase over the previous week (2.4 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively).
22.05.2008 22:49 Russia`s Industrial Output Grew 9.2% in Aril, Way Above Forecast
Russia boosted industrial production 9.2% year-on-year in April - the biggest rise since the 10.3% seen in July 2007, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Production growth in April accelerated from 4.5% in January 2008, 7.5% in February and 6.5% in March. Analysts told Interfax in a consensus forecast that they thought industrial production would rise 6.9% in April. Production grew 6.9% year-on-year in January-April 2008 - as much as in the same period of last year. However it was April`s surge that enabled growth in the four months to be sustained, as production only grew 6.2% in the first quarter of 2008, compared with growth of 7.2% in the same period of last year. The manufacturing sector led the April growth, up 14.5% year-on- year (and up 10.2% in the four months). April production by the extractive sector in general only edged up 0.4% (up 0.6% in the four months), with oil and gas condensate production falling, by 0.7% (down 0.3% in the four months, to 161 million tonnes). However gas production increased, by 1.3% in April (1.4% year-on-year in the four months, to 234 billion cubic meters). The Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry is forecasting full-year industrial growth of 5.7%, however the analysts polled by Interfax at the end of April said they thought grow would be closer to 6.35. Industry grew 6.3% in 2007.
20.05.2008 21:18 Japan`s economy grows at 3.3 per cent rate in January-March 2008
The Japanese economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter due to brisk exports and consumer spending, government data showed, but economists are unsure the momentum will continue amid a shaky global economic outlook. Some economists think the positive surprise may have been due to the leap year factor, with an extra day in February boosting sales of consumer companies, and the story is unlikely to see a repeat in the coming quarters. The Cabinet Office said gross domestic product grew 0.8 percent in real terms in the January-March quarter and at an annualized rate of 3.3 percent. The growth beat market expectations. Ten economists polled by Thomson Financial News were looking at 0.4 percent growth for the quarter and an annualized pace of 1.5 percent, on average. The better-than-expected numbers came after the Cabinet Office revised down GDP growth for the October-December quarter to 0.6 percent from 0.9 percent as reported earlier while the annualized rate was tweaked to 2.6 percent from 3.5 percent. Net exports - or the difference between exports and imports - pushed up GDP by 0.5 percentage point. Consumer spending, which makes up 55 percent of Japan`s GDP, also helped the world`s second-largest economy expand. Private consumption rose 0.8 percent during the quarter, the fastest growth since October-December 2006 when it grew 1.1 percent.
17.05.2008 14:47 US April industrial production falls 0.7 pct, capacity utilization 79.7 pct
US industrial production fell faster than expected in April, led by reduced manufacturing of autos, business equipment and construction supplies. The Federal Reserve reported today that industrial production in April fell 0.7 pct, a larger drop than the 0.3 pct decline that was expected by economists polled by Thomson`s IFR Markets. March`s industrial production level was downwardly revised to a 0.2 pct increase, from the 0.3 pct increase initially reported. The Fed also reported today that April`s plant capacity use rate fell to 79.7 pct, the lowest level in the current downturn. However, April`s plant capacity rate is still just a bit below the 81.0 pct rate seen a year earlier. Economists were expecting plant capacity use to fall to 80.1 pct. The lower factory output for April was prompted by declines in a wide range of market groups. Production of auto and auto parts fell 7.8 pct, consumer goods fell 0.8 pct, and business equipment production fell 1.1 pct. "As was the case in March, factory output in April was held down by a large drop in the index for motor vehicles and parts; strikes and strike-related parts shortages resulted in suspended production at many facilities", the Fed said in its report. The Fed noted that excluding autos and auto parts production, manufacturing production fell 0.4 pct in April after rising 0.3 pct in March. Segmented by industry group, durable manufacturing fell 1.4 pct, while nondurable manufacturing fared better, fallling 0.1 pct. Mining production fell 0.8 pct, natural gas utilities fell 0.3 pct, and electric utilities rose 0.4 pct.
15.05.2008 22:46 Eurozone economic growth rebounds to 0.7 per cent in first quarter
Economic growth in the 15 eurozone countries rebounded to 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of the year, boosted by strong German figures, the European Union`s Eurostat data agency said. The initial estimates were higher than economists` predictions and well above the 0.4 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth recorded in the last quarter of 2007. Analysts welcomed the figures. But they also warned that the good news was unlikely to last amid weaker business confidence and a slowdown in orders as the strong euro and soaring oil prices, coupled with the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, hit consumers and businesses.
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