The Lastest Macroeconomic News
13.04.2008 19:46 Euro area GDP grew by 0.4% q/q in the fourth qurter
Euro area (EA13) GDP grew by 0.4% and EU271 GDP by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates from Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In the third quarter of 2007, growth rates were +0.7% in the euro area and +0.8% in the EU27. In comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP grew in the fourth quarter of 2007 by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU27, after +2.7% and +2.9% respectively in the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2007 and among the Member States for which seasonally adjusted GDP data are available, Slovakia (+3.3%) recorded the highest growth rate compared with the previous quarter, followed by Poland (+2.0%) and the Czech Republic (+1.7%). In the fourth quarter of 2007, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and increased by 0.1% in the EU27 (after +0.5% and +0.6% in the previous quarter). Investment increased by 0.8% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU27 (after +1.1% and +1.4%). Exports rose by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU27 (after +2.0% in both zones). Imports decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU27 (after +2.5% and +3.0%).
09.04.2008 21:34 IMF expects Russia`s GDP will grow 6.8 percent in 2008 and 6.3 percent in 2009
Economic growth in Russia and emerging European economies will likely cool this year as financial market turmoil curbs access to credit and demand for oil, the International Monetary Fund said. Russia, which logged growth of 8.1 percent last year, will see growth moderate to 6.8 percent this year and then 6.3 percent next year. Growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States was expected to ease to 7.0 percent this year from 8.5 percent in 2007. Risks to the outlook were tilted to the downside. Also IMF now expects the world economy, which grew by a hardy 4.9 percent last year, to lose considerable momentum. The fund is projecting the global economy to grow by 3.7 percent this year and 3.8 percent next year. US economy will grow 0.5 percent in 2008 and 0.6 percent in 2009. Looking at other countries, the IMF trimmed its projection for Germany, with economic growth slowing to 1.4 percent this year and weakening to 1 percent in 2009. In Britain, growth will slow to 1.6 percent this year and next. France also will see growth decelerate to 1.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year. Japan`s economy will expand by 1.4 percent this year and 1.5 percent next year, which would mark a loss of momentum from last year. Canada`s growth would slow to 1.3 percent this year and pick up slightly to 1.9 percent next year. Global powerhouse China, which barreled ahead at an 11.4 percent pace last year, would see growth moderate to 9.3 percent this year and then strengthen a bit to 9.5 percent next year. India, which grew by a blistering 9.2 percent last year, is expected to grow by 7.9 percent this year and 8 percent next year.
07.04.2008 23:52 IMF again cuts global growth forecast for 2008
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2008 outlook for world economic growth for the second time this year, in a move that acknowledged housing and credit problems in the United States were exacting a heavy toll on the global economy. The IMF said it expects the pace of global growth to slow to 3.7 percent this year, down from its January forecast of 4.1 percent and lower still from the 4.8 percent rate it predicted in October last year. The latest revision puts world growth at its lowest since 2002, when growth was 3.1 percent, according to IMF data. "I can confirm the IMF`s current aggregate world growth forecast for 2008 is 3.7 percent," an IMF spokesman said, confirming reports about the IMF`s World Economic Outlook due on April 9. Earlier, IMF Chief Economist Simon Johnson said the U.S. economy has come to "a virtual standstill" and will remain weak in coming quarters owing to deeper problems in housing and credit markets. Still, Johnson avoided saying the United States was in recession. Media have reported that the IMF growth outlook will put U.S. economic growth for 2008 at 0.5 percent from a previous forecast of 1.5 percent.
06.04.2008 22:59 Eurozone inflation accelerated last month to the fastest pace since 1992
EURO-ZONE inflation accelerated last month to the fastest pace since 1992, official data showed on Monday, giving the European Central Bank more reason to look with concern on the announcement of a big wage agreement in Germany. Eurostat, the European statistics agency, said prices rose in March at a 3.5% annual rate in the 15 countries that share the euro, the highest rate since June 1992. The rate in February was 3.3%, which had itself been a record. Inflation is running far above the European Central Bank`s 2% guideline. In recent months, high prices for energy and food in particular have pushed up inflation and are cited as reasons that household spending is being held back. The concern about rising prices is not confined to the euro zone. In a speech on Monday, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, noted that "food prices on world markets are more than 50% higher, and oil prices two-thirds higher, than they were a year ago".
29.03.2008 11:42 Russian GDP growth accelerates to 8.2% y/y in February 2008
Russia`s gross domestic product growth accelerated to 8.2 percent year-on-year in February from 7.4 percent in January, the Economy Ministry said in its monthly economic review. The economy grew 8.1 percent last year. The ministry expects GDP to rise 7.1 percent in 2008 while analysts polled by Reuters predict 6.8 percent growth, according to the median forecast. "An acceleration of economic growth was a result of strong consumer and investment demand with a background of high growth tempo in the manufacturing sector," the ministry said. It said it expects the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 4.5-4.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with 3.4 percent in the same period last year when full-year inflation was 11.9 percent.
27.03.2008 23:23 US final GDP grew at a 0.6 pct annualized pace in the fourth quarter
Consumer spending and exports were up slightly while business inventories were lower, leaving the government`s estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth unrevised, the Commerce Department said. The economy grew at a 0.6 pct annualized pace in the fourth quarter, the same rate reported in the previous estimate. That matched the 0.6 pct median estimate from economists polled by Thomson IFR Markets. There was a small improvement in inflation. The headline number, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, was revised lower to 3.9 pct from 4.1 pct. Consumer spending, which makes up roughly 70 pct of the US economy, was higher in the final report, revised up to 2.3 pct growth from 1.0 pct. The Commerce Department said the major increase was in spending on services, which was revised higher to 2.8 pct growth from 2.1 pct. Foreign trade continued to provide a large counter to the domestic US economic slowdown in the final Q4 report. Exports were revised higher to 6.5 pct growth from 4.8 pct. Imports fell slightly less than previously estimated, dropping 1.4 pct compared to 1.9 pct. That left the net effect on GDP growth higher, up from a positive 0.90 percentage points to a positive 1.02 points.
24.03.2008 23:01 Russia raises 2008 GDP growth forecast to 7.1 pct, inflation to 9.5 pct
The economic development ministry raised its forecast for economic growth in 2008 to 7.1 pct from 6.7 pct, and its inflation forecast to 9.5 pct from 8.5 pct, Russian news agencies reported. Gennady Kuranov, director of the macroeconomic forecasting department said, cited by Interfax: "The inflation forecast has been raised because of the rise in food and wheat products prices". Russia`s economics ministry also raised its 2008 forecast for the annual average price of Urals oil, a benchmark blend, by 16% to $86 per barrel, a high-ranking ministry official said. "The oil price is rising. The average price will be approximately at the level of $86 per barrel. However, in the second half of the year, prices will go down," Gennady Kuranov said. The ministry earlier raised its Urals forecast for the year in late January, from $56 to $74. In 2006 the annual average price for the Urals oil was $61 per barrel.
23.03.2008 12:58 Euro area industrial production grew by 0.9% in January 2008
In January 2008 compared with December 2007, seasonally adjusted industrial production grew by 0.9% in both the euro area (EA15) and the EU27. In December 20073 production remained stable in both zones. In January 2008 compared with January 2007, industrial production rose by 3.8% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU27. In January 2008 compared with December 2007, production of capital goods increased by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU27. Durable consumer goods grew by 1.9% and 1.5% respectively. Intermediate goods rose by 0.8% in both zones. Non-durable consumer goods gained 0.6% in the euro area and 0.8% in the EU27. Production of energy fell by 2.9% and 2.1% respectively. In January 2008, among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production rose in ten, remained stable in the United Kingdom and fell in three. The highest increases were registered in Lithuania (+5.9%), Poland (+5.7%) and Slovakia (+4.6%), while the largest decrease was recorded in Portugal (-1.7%). Euro area annual inflation was 3.3% in February 2008, up from 3.2% in January. A year earlier the rate was 1.8%. Monthly inflation was 0.3% in February 2008. EU annual inflation was 3.4% in February 2008, unchanged compared to January. A year earlier the rate was 2.1%. Monthly inflation was 0.4% in February 2008.
19.03.2008 21:37 Russia`s industrial production grew 7.5 percent in February 2008
Russia`s industrial production rose 7.5 percent year-on-year in February, Rostat reported. Analysts polled by the Russian news agency forecast that industrial production rose by 5.5 pct last month. In January-February industrial production rose 6.0 percent year-on-year. Russia`s Mininstry of Economic Development and Trade forecasts that industrial production will grow 5.7 percent in 2008. Russia`s finance minister said he expected the country`s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by at least 7.0 percent this year, agreeing with views that there were signs of overheating. Alexei Kudrin, speaking in parliament, also said M2 money supply would rise by 35-40 percent this year, down from 48 percent last year, while bank lending will increase by 30-40 percent, down from 50 percent last year.
18.03.2008 21:29 US February industrial output down 0.5 pct, capacity utilization 80.9 pct
Output US factories, mines and utilities declined in February at the sharpest pace since October as capacity utilization fell to its lowest level in more than two years, the Federal Reserve said. Output US factories, mines and utilities declined in February at the sharpest pace since October as capacity utilization fell to its lowest level in more than two years, the Federal Reserve said. Output in February fell 0.5 pct, steeper than the 0.1 pct fall expected, while factories were using 80.9 pct of their capacity, down from 81.5 pct in January. Economists polled by Thomson`s IFR Markets had predicted a slight fall to 81.3. That`s the lowest level of utilization since November 2005. The Federal Reserve keeps a close watch on the operating rate to see if it is approaching levels where bottlenecks could develop and threaten to boost inflationary pressures. Manufacturing production fell 0.2 pct in February, while mining output rose 0.4 pct. Utility output plunged 3.7 pct in February after rising 2.2 pct in January.
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