The Lastest Macroeconomic News
07.05.2016 14:11 These 4 things could rattle the global economy
After the darkness at the start to 2016, the world economy actually looks pretty good right now. Despite a bit of softness, US economic data has been surprising to the upside over the last couple of months. The stock market (albeit with a misstep Tuesday), has also been trending up. Across the world, from emerging markets to Europe, everything looks not great but pretty solid. Don`t get too comfortable, however, said Citi`s global economics team this week. "None of the structural headwinds that seem to have plagued the global economy in recent years (a mix of excessive indebtedness, deteriorating demographics, rising political uncertainty as well as the end of the China growth miracle and the commodity supercycle) have been resolved," said Ebrahim Rahbari, Willem Buiter, and Cesar Rojas in a note. The Citi economists cited short-term reasons they are concerned for global growth.
05.05.2016 11:20 The global economy is in bad shape and getting worse
The International Monetary Fund and others have recently revised downward their forecasts for global growth - yet again. Little wonder: The world economy has few bright spots, and many that are dimming rapidly. Among advanced economies, the United States has just experienced two quarters of growth averaging 1%. Further monetary easing has boosted a cyclical recovery in the eurozone, though potential growth in most countries remains well below 1%. In Japan, “Abenomics” is running out of steam, with the economy slowing since mid-2015 and now close to recession. In the United Kingdom, uncertainty surrounding the June referendum on continued European Union membership is leading firms to keep hiring and capital spending on hold. And other advanced economies - such as Canada, Australia, Norway - face headwinds from low commodity prices. Things are not much better in most emerging economies. Among the five BRIC countries, two (Brazil and Russia) are in recession, one (South Africa) is barely growing, another (China) is experiencing a sharp structural slowdown, and India is doing well only because - in the words of its central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan - in the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Many other emerging markets have slowed since 2013 as well, owing to weak external conditions, economic fragility (stemming from loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies in the good years), and, often, a move away from market-oriented reforms and toward variants of state capitalism.
03.05.2016 18:57 Ukraine`s economy will return to growth in 2016
A slight rise in GDP in annual terms is expected in Ukraine in January-March 2016, according to a report from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). "A further recovery of economic activity, in particular, a slight increase in GDP in annual terms will be observed in the first quarter of 2016 as expected," reads the document, the text of which has been posted on the National Bank`s website. As reported, the NBU keeps its forecast for real GDP growth at 1.1% in 2016 and 3% in 2017. The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in 2015 accelerated to 43.3% from 24.9% in 2014, while the fall of GDP accelerated to 9.9% from 6.6% respectively. The economy of Ukraine is expected to grow at a rate of 1.5 percent this year, down 0.5 percent from the prognosis made in October 2015, IMF said. Ukraine`s GDP contracted 9.9 percent, the country`s GDP growth is expected to stay at 1.5 percent in 2016, and reach 2.5 percent in 2017, Sputnik cited International Monetary Fund`s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report as saying.
01.05.2016 15:12 China`s Economy Will Overtake The U.S. In 2018
Each country measures economic growth by its gross domestic product or GDP. Negative or positive GDP indicates whether the economy is contracting or expanding. When you combine the total economic output of each country, the result is global GDP. In this article, we will reveal how America`s contribution to global GDP has been falling while China`s has been rising. The Conference Board estimates that by 2018, China`s contribution to global GDP will surpass that of the U.S. In other words, China`s economy will become more significant than America`s. How is this possible? Is the golden era of “Made in America” in our rearview mirror? Is China entering a modern-day economic dynasty? To find the answer, we will examine the period beginning in 1970 and the forecast through 2025. The U.S. contributed 21.2% of total global economic output in 1970. This remained consistent until the year 2000. In every year since, with one exception, America`s percentage of the world`s economic output has declined. In 2015, the U.S. contributed 16.7% of the world`s economy. By 2025, this is expected to fall to 14.9%. Equally noteworthy is the exceptional rise in China`s economy. In 1970, China was responsible for a mere 4.1% of the total. This rose to 15.6% in 2015. In 2025, China`s contribution to the global economy is projected to be 17.2%. Since 1990, China`s percentage of total global output has risen every year with one exception (1998), when it fell by one percent. The vertical black-dotted line on the chart denotes the year (2018) that China`s economic contribution is projected to surpass the U.S.
28.04.2016 22:33 Russia facing reversal of inflation, creating background for easing of monetary policy
Russia is facing a reversal of inflation and inflationary expectations, which is creating background for easing of the monetary policy, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Nikolai Podguzov said. "We have a feeling that the reversal of inflation and inflationary expectations is already there, which has created a background for easing of the monetary policy," he said, adding though that "this is largely for the Central Bank to decide whether it`s reasonable to slash rates at the nearest meeting." According to Podguzov, the Economic Development Ministry expects the regulator to ease the rhetoric regarding its monetary policy. "The background for the rates` reduction is in place. This cycle may be launched via some verbal interventions and the rhetoric of the press release following the board meeting of the Central Bank on its key interest rate, or it may be done simply by cutting the rate," Deputy Minister said.
28.04.2016 16:03 Cities’ share of global GDP up to 70%
Saying that cities have changed into the engine of GDP in the world, the head of international conference on urban economics said, cities’ share of global GDP is more than 70 percent according to the statistics. Referring to the Leader’s speeches regarding 10 key actions to save the country, Hossein Mohammadpour Zarandi, the head of international conference on urban economics in an interview said, “one of the most important provisions of this measure proposed under Resistance Economy model is improvement of energy efficacy; as the Leader emphasized it is possible to save 100 billion USD by optimizing energy.” Noting that improvement of energy efficiency is one of the fields linking Resistance Rconomy and urban economy to each other, Pourzarandi said, according to statistics, urban areas will be extended several times by 2030, which means increase in energy consumption.
27.04.2016 15:12 India to clock nearly 8 per cent GDP growth in 2016-17
India`s economy is likely to clock nearly 8 per cent growth in the current fiscal on the back of robust private consumption, which has benefited from lower energy prices and higher real incomes, according to PHD Chamber of Commerce. The Reserve Bank had retained its growth projection for 2016-17 at 7.6 per cent. “Going ahead, growth in India is projected to notch up to 8 per cent in 2016-17. Growth will continue to be driven by private consumption, which has benefited from lower energy prices and higher real incomes. “Further, with the revival of sentiment and pick-up in industrial activity, a recovery of private investment is expected to strengthen growth in the coming times,” it said. The chamber also estimated that India`s share in world GDP has doubled from 1.43 per cent in 2000 to 2.86 per cent in 2015. “India`s GDP stood at $ 477 billion in 2000 and increased to $ 2,091 billion in the year 2015, showing more than four-fold increase over a period of 15 years,” PHD Chamber President Mahesh Gupta said.
26.04.2016 13:06 Russian Economy Ministry forecast sees oil at $40 until 2019
Russia should use an average oil price of $40 per barrel as the benchmark for its 2017-2019 budgets, the Economy Ministry said on Thursday, giving in to Finance Ministry arguments for fiscal caution. A slide in oil prices and Western sanctions have pushed Russia into recession, complicating the Finance Ministry`s task of keeping the budget deficit manageable. The Economy Ministry last week submitted forecasts that proposed a base budget scenario in which oil prices rose to $45 per barrel next year and $50 in 2018-2019, an official in policy-making circles said. But it has since bowed to the Finance Ministry`s pressure. "The lower the price (in the forecast), the better for the (finance) ministry," the source said. "Spending is cut automatically." Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev presented the forecasts as prudent, although his ministry has often backed more government spending to stimulate the economy. "I believe the base scenario has a healthy dose of conservatism," he said in televised comments. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said conservatism was justified. "It is better to lean in projections towards understating potential revenues than later try to find additional reserves to balance the budget," Medvedev said.
25.04.2016 15:27 Russia Economy 2016: No GDP Growth Expected Amid Low Oil Prices and Sanctions
There`s more bad news for the Russian economy. The country`s government officials admitted there would be no gross domestic product growth in 2016. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said as much Thursday while giving a more optimistic forecast than the World Bank`s prediction of a 1.9 percent contraction this year. “In the basic version [of the government`s macroeconomic forecast], GDP growth this year will remain at around zero or be slightly negative. A slight growth of 1 to 2 percent is expected in 2017-2019,” Medvedev said. Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev forecasted an economic contraction of 0.2 percent in 2016 with no growth in Russia`s industrial output. He said he expected consumer price inflation to hit 6.5 percent in 2016. That was good news compared to the World Bank`s forecast. “Russia`s longer-term growth path will depend on the strength of its structural reforms. Economic reforms designed to bolster investor confidence could greatly enhance Russia`s long-term growth prospects,” Andras Horvai, World Bank country director for the Russian Federation, said earlier this month.
22.04.2016 07:29 Bank of Russia Warns Inflation May Stall at `Unacceptable` Level
Russian inflation is at risk of stalling at 6 percent to 7 percent after slowing for seven months, a level that central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina called “unacceptable” for speeding up the economy and spurring investment. “We shouldn`t lose vigilance,” Nabiullina said at the Finance Ministry`s annual meeting in Moscow on Wednesday. With annual inflation currently running at 7.2 percent, next year`s 4 percent target is “realistic,” she said. “Without low inflation, there will be no low long-term rates in the economy and no predictable conditions for running a business, which is critically necessary for economic growth,” she said. Wariness about the inflation outlook signals a measure of caution on the part of the central bank before it reviews interest rates in nine days. Policy makers overshot their target for price growth in 2015 for a fourth consecutive year and have previously conceded the central bank is at risk of missing next year`s goal after turmoil in the oil market and the ruble.
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