The Lastest Macroeconomic News
19.06.2019 21:43 Fitch downgrades Russia`s GDP growth to 1.2% for 2019
Fitch Ratings downgraded Russia`s GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 1.5% to 1.2%, following an unexpectedly weak economic performance in the first quarter. The agency still believes GDP growth will accelerate to 1.9% in 2020 and 2021, after the government`s RUB27 trillion spending programme on infrastructure and the social sphere kicks in, coupled with slowing inflation and the waning effect of the VAT hike that is expected to push drive consumption. As analysed by bne IntelliNews, the Russian economy is stagnating in the beginning of 2019 and Russian President Vladimir Putin`s plan to revitalise it with the 12 national projects is off to a very slow start. Previously in June the World Bank (WB) also cut its 2019 GDP growth outlook for Russia from 1.5% to 1.2% in the latest Global Economic Prospects report. This makes the second time Russia`s GDP growth forecast for 2019 was cut by the bank.
08.06.2019 15:08 Russia kicks off economic forum, but its wealth is on shaky ground
Russia began its annual St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on Thursday, an event at which it will try to boost its appeal to international businesses and investors. Russia has been hit by five years of international sanctions on its economy following its annexation of Crimea and role in pro-Russian uprising in Ukraine. It is also not immune to the effects of the U.S.′ trade war with China which is putting the brakes on global growth. Frederic Oudea, president of the European Banking Federation and CEO of Societe Generale, told a Russian economy panel at SPIEF Thursday that while the country`s finances were not faring too badly given the global environment, sanctions remained a hurdle. “In this world of uncertainty … I think Russia has done pretty well in the last few quarters. Of course, the international sanctions remain an obstacle, a handicap to create more positive momentum and more structural confidence,” he said. A stalling in Russia`s economy is borne out in the latest growth data that revealed the economy had slowed in the first quarter of 2019 to its weakest level since late 2017. In May, Russia`s Economy Ministry had already warned of lower growth in 2019, forecasting 1.3% this year. Meanwhile the Central Bank of Russia expects GDP to grow by 1.2 - 1.7% this year with both domestic and external factors hampering growth.
30.05.2019 22:23 First-quarter economic growth up 3.1%, slightly better than Wall Street expected
The U.S. economy grew by 3.1% to start the year, slightly better than expected and providing some relief at a time when recession fears are accelerating, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. First-quarter gross domestic product beat the 3% Dow Jones estimate but was lower than the initial 3.2% projection from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The decrease came due to downward revisions to nonresidential fixed and private inventory investment, two key drivers to GDP. The new numbers, which represent the second reading, also reflect upward revisions to exports and personal consumption expenditures. Corporate profits also weakened, falling 2.8% across all companies and 0.5% in the S&P 500. Inflation indicators also were weaker than expected, with core personal consumption expenditures up just 1.03%
24.05.2019 19:16 P Morgan slashes second-quarter GDP forecast to just 1%
J.P. Morgan economists said they now see much slower second-quarter growth of just 1%, down from their prior forecast of 2.25% and way off the 3.2% reported in the first quarter. “The April durable goods report was bad, particularly the details relating to capital goods orders and shipments. Coming on the heels of last week’s crummy April retail sales report, it suggests second quarter activity growth is sharply downshifting from the first quarter pace, ” the economists wrote. The Atlanta Fed`s GDP Now tracker has GDP growth for the first quarter at 1.3% for the quarter.
13.05.2019 20:49 Russian inflation to reach 4% target in Q1 2020
Annual inflation in Russia is slowing and will reach the central bank`s 4% target in the first quarter of 2020 even though inflationary expectations remain high, the bank said in a report on Monday. The report, dated April, also said that inflation measured in monthly and seasonally-adjusted terms has already slowed to be in line with the central bank`s target. Economic growth is now expected to pick up starting in the second quarter of 2019, the central bank said. Russia`s consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.2 percent in April in year-on-year terms, in line with analysts` expectations, after a 5.3 percent increase in March, the statistics service said. Month-on-month inflation was at 0.3 percent in April, the same level as in March.
04.05.2019 15:30 Russian defense spending is much larger, and more sustainable than it seems
The United States has a basic problem: Devising a strategy toward great power adversaries necessitates having some reasonable estimate of their economic and military power. We do not do this especially well. Ask yourself: Do we really know how much our adversaries spend on their military, and what they are getting for their money? Russia, for example, presents a glaring problem for academic and policy circles alike. Most comparisons are done in current U.S. dollars based on prevailing exchange rates, making Russia’s economy seem the size of South Korea’s. This approach is useless for comparing defense spending, or the country’s purchasing power. Yet, it is used frequently to argue that despite a large military modernization program, and a sizable conventional and nuclear deterrent, Moscow is a paper tiger. As a consequence, the debate on relative military power and expectations of the future military balance is terribly warped by a low-information environment.
23.04.2019 21:18 Russia`s Economy To Slow In 2019, Followed By Modest 2020 Rebound
Fitch Solutions expects Russian economic growth will ease in 2019, in-line with moderating domestic and foreign demand, with real GDP growth slowing to 1.5%, compared to 2.3% in 2018. A hike to the value-added tax, higher inflation and weaker gains in the labour market will all act to temper household consumption growth, while investment will remain capped by political risk and structural impediments. Meanwhile, improvements in the trade balance will be driven by weaker import growth. Fitch Solutions sees a modest rebound in growth to 1.7% in 2020.
22.04.2019 16:22 Guests from the future: the first congress of the leadership of Asgardia
The congress of the management team of Asgardia, the only space state in the world, took place on April 10-12 in Vienna, at the Kempinski hotel. Ministers and chairmen of the parliamentary committees of Asgardia flocked to the Austrian capital from different parts of the Earth to discuss further development of the state - in particular, citizenship, production, trade, culture, safety and security, finance, resources and others. Founder of Asgardia, Head of the nation Igor Ashurbeyli, in a welcoming speech, stressed that the task of the Congress is to complete the formation of the government of the state, to take the oath of leadership from the leaders and lay the foundations for the development program of Asgardia. He also recalled the already existing achievements of the space nation: "only two and a half years passed since the formation of the state - no more than an instant from the historical point of view, and yet Asgardia already has more than a million citizens, it has its own territory - the Asgardia-1 satellite", Its currency - the solar, its leadership, as well as the emblem, flag, anthem and constitution.
14.04.2019 14:28 QNB: Global GDP growth is slowing but serious crisis remains unlikely
Citing the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), QNB said in its weekly analysis that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a temporary slowing in the growth rate of global economic activity (GDP) to 3.3% in 2019 from 3.6% in 2018. The IMF has been steadily revising down its estimates and forecasts for global GDP growth over the past year. However, the Fund expects a recovery in 2020 with global GDP growth of 3.6%, driven by a continued policy stimulus in China and recent tailwinds in global financial market sentiment, QNB said. The slowdown in 2018 and forecast downgrades, according to QNB, have been caused by four main factors: First, while the US economy posted its strongest performance in three years in 2018, up 2.9%, it started to slow by Q4 2018. GDP growth momentum is slowing due to dissipating fiscal stimulus, tighter financial conditions, slower and softening private sector confidence.
03.04.2019 14:38 Lagarde says the global economy has lost momentum since January
The world economy in a `precarious` position, says the IMF`s managing director, Christine Lagarde. Picture: Matthew Lloyd, Bloomberg The world economy in a `precarious` position, says the IMF`s managing director, Christine Lagarde. Global growth has lost momentum since the start of the year, leaving the world economy in a “precarious” position, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said. The global economy has weakened since the International Monetary Fund last updated its forecast in late January, though a recession isn`t likely in the near term, Lagarde said Tuesday in remarks prepared for a speech at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington. In January, the fund lowered its projection for world economic growth, forecasting expansion of 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2020. It was the IMF`s second cut in the outlook in three months. The fund will release its new World Economic Outlook with an updated growth forecast on April 9. “The global economy is at a `delicate moment,`” Lagarde said. Her warning comes as global finance ministers and central bankers prepare to convene in Washington next week for the semi-annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. While confidence has been boosted by the Federal Reserve`s switch to a more patient stance and signs of a trade deal between the US and China, investors remain concerned the global expansion may be running out of steam a decade after the financial crisis.
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