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The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% annual pace in the third quarter, a bit faster than the 1.6% initially estimated, but down from the 2.6% in the previous quarter. The economy has grown 3% in the past year in real terms, just about the rate economists say is the long-term potential. In nominal terms, GDP was at an annual rate of $13.33 trillion in the third quarter.
GDP of Eurozone grew by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU25 during the third quarter of 2006, compared to the previous quarter. Britain recorded 0,7% in economic growth for the third quarter over the previous quarter and 2,7% for the year, the office for National Statistics said in its second estimate this week. De Statis, the German federal statistics office, says this week the GDP of Germany grew 0,6% in the third quarter of 2006. Compared with a year earlier, the GDP in the third quarter of 2006 was up 2.8%.
The Japanese growth data was stronger than expected with a third-quarter GDP increase of 0.5%. Japanese GDP grew 2,0% compared to the third quarter of 2005.
Gross domestic product of Russia had risen 6.8% in January-October 2006, and that GDP growth from October 2005 to October 2006 was 8.2%. Annual GDP in Russia came to 6.9% in the third quarter of the year, compared to the total 6.6% last year.
U.S. economy will not dent the recovery that is gathering pace in Europe, the OECD said in November. The 12-nation euro zone will post 2,6% growth this year and 2,2% in 2007, it predicted, upgrading the previous forecasts of 2,2% and 2,1%. US Economic growth is predicted to be 2,5% in 2007 compared to 3,3% in 2006. GDP in Russia is expected to amount to 6.6% or 6.7% in 2006 and 6,0% in 2007. The industrial production growth estimate for 2006 has been raised from 4.6% to 4.8%, which is likely to lend support to the GDP growth of 6.7%.

The United States Economy

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% annual pace in the third quarter, a bit faster than the 1.6% initially estimated, but down from the 2.6% in the previous quarter, the Commerce Department reported in November 2006 in its first revision to the gross domestic product report. Revisions came largely from greater building of inventories and lower imports than originally assumed.
Business investment also grew more than first estimated, while consumer spending was slightly slower. Final sales of domestic product increased 2.1%, up from the 1.7% originally reported. Meanwhile, a key measure of core inflation was revised a tenth of a percentage point lower, to 2.2%. Year-over-year growth in the core personal consumption expenditure price index was unrevised at 2.4%, thus remaining well above the implied target of 1% to 2%.
The economy has grown 3% in the past year in real terms, just about the rate economists say is the long-term potential. In nominal terms, GDP was at an annual rate of $13.33 trillion in the third quarter.
The Federal Reserve Board announced November 16 that U.S. industrial production rose 0.2 percent in October after having decreased 0.6 percent in September; production in August was revised up to show a gain of 0.3 percent. Economists were expecting production to rise 0.3%. Capacity utilization rose to 82.2% from a revised 82.1% in September. Manufacturing output fell 0.2% in October, due to weak auto production. Excluding autos, manufacturing output rose 0.1%. Output of utilities jumped 4.1% in October after falling 4.6% in the previous month.
US National Association of Business Economists (NABE) predicts real GDP growth is projected to be at a 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter of 2006 and gradually ramp up to a 3% rate by the fourth quarter of 2007. US Economic growth is predicted to be 2,5% in 2007 compared to 3,3% in 2006. The NABE also reduced its anticipated profile for CPI growth in 2006, with the projected increase for this year now standing at 2.7%, compared to 3.3% in the September survey.

The European Union Economy

GDP of Eurozone grew by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU25 during the third quarter of 2006, compared to the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In the second quarter of 2006, growth rates were +0.9% in both the euro area and the EU25. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 2.6% in the euro area and by 2.8% in the EU25 in the third quarter of 2006, after +2.7% and +2.9% respectively in the previous quarter.
Britain recorded 0,7% in economic growth for the third quarter over the previous quarter and 2,7% for the year, the office for National Statistics said in its second estimate this week. Economists had expected the NS office to adhere strictly to its prior estimate, or a quarterly increase of 0,7% and a year-on-year rise of 2.8%, according to ABN Amro bank.
De Statis, the German federal statistics office, says this week the GDP of Germany grew 0,6% in the third quarter of 2006. Compared with a year earlier, the GDP in the third quarter of 2006 was up 2.8%.
The euro area industrial new orders index decreased by 1.3% in September 2006 compared to August 2006. The index rose by 3.8% in August and by 2.0% in July. EU25 new orders fell by 1.0% in September 2006, after rises of 2.7% in August and 1.7% in July. Excluding ships, railway and aerospace equipment industrial new orders fell by 2.0% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU25 in September 2006. In September 2006 compared to September 2005, industrial new orders increased by 7.6% in the euro area and by 6.8% in the EU25. Total industry excluding ships, railway and aerospace equipment grew by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU25.
Seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 1.0% in the euro area in September 2006 compared to August 2006. Production rose by 1.7% in August3 and declined by 0.5% in July. In the EU25 output fell by 0.6% in September after an increase of 1.2% in August and a decrease of 0.3% in July. In September 2006 compared to September 2005, industrial production rose by 3.3% in both the euro area and the EU25.
The first estimate for the euro area trade balance with the rest of the world in September 2006 gave a 2.0 bn euro surplus compared with +1.3 bn in September 2005. The August 20062 balance was -5.4 bn, compared with -2.9 bn in August 2005. In September 2006 compared with August 2006, exports, seasonally adjusted, rose by 2.0% while imports fell by 0.1%. The first estimate for September 2006 extra-EU25 trade was a deficit of 13.4 bn euro, compared with -9.5 bn in September 2005. In August 20062, the balance was -21.3 bn, compared with -14.7 bn in August 2005. In September 2006 compared with August 2006, exports, seasonally adjusted, rose by 1.6% while imports fell by 1.7%.
U.S. economy will not dent the recovery that is gathering pace in Europe, the OECD said in November. The 12-nation euro zone will post 2,6% growth this year and 2,2% in 2007, it predicted, upgrading the previous forecasts of 2,2% and 2,1%. OECD also hiked its forecast for German GDP growth this year to 2,6% from 2,2% and its forecast for 2007 growth to 1,8% from 1,6%. It said it expects growth to pick up again to 2,1% in 2008. The OECD cut its 2006 forecast for France to 2,1% from 2,4%. It kept its 2007 forecast at 2,2% and said it expects the French economy to grow 2,3% in 2008.

Japan Economy

The Japanese growth data was stronger than expected with a third-quarter GDP increase of 0.5%. Japanese GDP grew 2,0% compared to the third quarter of 2005. Despite of that, the Japanese government downgraded its assessment of the economy in a monthly report for the first time in almost two years today, as weak consumption cast a cloud over the long-lasting recovery. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.25% following the latest policy meeting and failed to provide clear direction over the timing of another rate increase.
Industrial production in Japan unexpectedly rose in October 2006, backing the assessment of central bank that the second-largest economy in the world is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates. Factory output climbed a seasonally adjusted 1,6% from a month earlier, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tokyo today. Gains were led by autos and semiconductors as production rose 7,4% from a year earlier, the biggest jump in more than two years.

Economy of Russia

Economics minister of Russia discussed the medium-term future of the economy at a news conference in November, focusing on plans for an oil exchange, changes to the domestic gas price, inflation, and import regulations. German Gref said gross domestic product of Russia had risen 6.8% in January-October 2006, and that GDP growth from October 2005 to October 2006 was 8.2%. On inflation, the minister said the figure would not exceed the national target of 9%. "According to the current dynamics, we are keeping to the 9% inflation index," he told.
The industrial production growth estimate for 2006 has been raised from 4.6% to 4.8%, which is likely to lend support to the GDP growth of 6.7%, the analysts of Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting said. Russian investment growth is likely to reach the 13.7% level in 2006, driven by the easing of the VAT regime in construction and the elimination of import duties on high-tech equipment. The industrial production growth estimate for 2007 has been raised from 4.3% to 5.0%.
GDP in Russia is expected to amount to 6.6% or 6.7% in 2006, compared to 6.4% in 2005, the Economic Development and Trade Ministry says in a report published on Thursday. Earlier, Russian officials forecast a 6.6% GDP rise for this year. Annual GDP in Russia came to 6.9% in the third quarter of the year, compared to the total 6.6% last year.